NBA betting

NBA Betting Guide

Arguably the biggest basketball league in the world, the NBA, needs no introduction. With millions of fans throughout the US and the world, there is no shortage of fans looking to spice up the NBA experience with a little wagering.

If you want to win those bets, however, you need a game plan. You can’t go around placing bets on your gut feeling and expect to win. A sound NBA betting strategy is essential. With that in mind, here are some NBA betting strategies and advice for NBA betting markets. Note that these were all written specifically with the NBA in mind. They need to be combined with a general betting theory to get the best results.

Schedule Tracking

In addition to NBA betting stats and team news, you must always be aware of where and when the match is taking place. The US is a big place, so travelling between various venues is a more noticeable factor than with many other national basketball leagues. 

Simply put, teams don’t perform to their fullest if they just went through a 6-hour time zone change. Similarly, if a team has several important games in a row, fatigue will start to take its toll. This factor is often overlooked by recreational bettors but can be a game-changer in certain situations.

Small NBA Moneyline Handicaps

If you want to take your wagering seriously, you need to know how to read between the lines and think like a bookmaker. For example, in games where the teams are considered more-or-less equally matched, bookies often offer small score adjustments on the home team, such as -1 or -1.5. In NBA handicap betting, a one-point difference is almost negligible, and most games are won with a bigger difference than that. So why is it there? 

Simply put, the bookies are leveraging the fact that playing at home is considered an advantage, and in 50/50 situations, most bets are on the home team. This is not that important at first glance, but is still what we would call ‘negative value’. By taking such offers, you’re damaging your potential winnings in the long run.

Stay Away from Popular Choices

If a choice between two teams looks like an obvious one, there’s usually a good reason for that. However, if a bet you want to make is one everyone is making, the odds will be much shorter than the perceived probabilities might dictate. The reason for this is simple: bookmakers need to make money. If suddenly everyone starts betting one way, they’ll shorten the odds to avoid massive payouts. 

So if you’re after value, and you should be, this is not a good bet to take, even if it’s almost a sure thing. Add the fact that it’s never a 100% sure thing, and you’re just risking money for no reason. Try to be more perceptive than the crowd and spot opportunities others miss out on.

Power Rankings

The issue with traditional statistics and head-to-head histories and NBA betting is that most teams in this league are subject to frequent roster changes, and react differently to changing trends in the sport. In other words, a team’s history does not necessarily portray their relative strength accurately.

That’s why NBA power rankings are so popular. These attempt to rank teams against a baseline average strength of a team. The issue here is that there is a lot of them available from various online sources. You need to find a good, objective, accurate power ranking table. Sometimes, these can go even against bookmaker odds lines, although such situations are extremely rare. Thus, you can find amazing value opportunities with minimal work on your part.