BLAST Rivals 2026 Season 2 Prediction: Favorites and the Road to the Final

BLAST Rivals 2026 Season 2 takes place in Hong Kong from November 11–15, bringing together eight Counter-Strike 2 teams for the final BLAST Premier event before the PGL Singapore Major 2026.

FURIA, Vitality, Spirit, MOUZ, Falcons, FUT, G2 and Legacy will compete for $1 million in combined player prizes and club payments.

MOUZ arrive as the newly crowned IEM Beijing champions, having completed the entire tournament without dropping a map.

Their performance makes them one of the main contenders in Hong Kong, although Vitality and Spirit return after missing Beijing, while FURIA have already beaten MOUZ in a recent playoff series.

Outright markets can vary between operators. The best CS2 betting sites comparison provides additional information about sportsbooks offering Counter-Strike betting markets.

The tournament features two groups of four teams, with double-elimination (GSL) matches taking place on November 11–12. Three teams from each group qualify for the playoffs, while the group winners advance directly to the semifinals.

The quarterfinals are scheduled for November 13, followed by the semifinals on November 14 and the grand final on November 15. All series will be best-of-three (Bo3), except the best-of-five (Bo5) final.

Group A: FURIA, Vitality, Falcons and Legacy.

The opening matches are FURIA vs Legacy and Vitality vs Falcons.

Vitality are expected to welcome back in-game leader apEX, who missed PGL Masters Bucharest. FURIA won both Thunderpick World Championship and PGL Masters Bucharest in October, although their IEM Beijing campaign ended with a 2–1 quarterfinal defeat to BETBOOM.

Falcons also struggled in Beijing, exiting during the group stage. Coach zonic has acknowledged the team’s difficulties recovering from poor starts and its problems with map selections.

Legacy enter the tournament with a changed lineup after benching n1ssim. ksloks has joined as a stand-in for the remainder of 2026.

Group B: Spirit, MOUZ, FUT and G2.

Spirit face FUT in their opener, while MOUZ meet G2.

Spirit won BLAST Open Porto in September but failed to reach the playoffs in Bucharest. FUT delivered one of that tournament’s notable upsets, defeating a Vitality lineup missing apEX by 2–1 with newly signed AWPer SunPayus.

G2 have endured a difficult stretch, losing seven of their eight series across ESL Pro League Season 24, PGL Masters Bucharest and IEM Beijing.

At the quoted pre-tournament odds, Vitality are the favorites at 3.25, followed by Spirit (5.00), MOUZ (5.50) and FURIA (6.00).

HLTV lists seven maps for the tournament: Cache, Dust2, Mirage, Inferno, Nuke, Ancient and Anubis.

MOUZ completed IEM Beijing with five series victories and an 11–0 map record. Their November 8 grand final against The MongolZ was particularly convincing, ending 3–0 after wins on Mirage (13–5), Dust2 (13–6) and Inferno (13–4).

In-game leader xertioN earned his first career HLTV MVP award after averaging a 1.53 rating across the playoffs. AWPer torzsi was another standout performer, finishing the event with a 1.33 overall rating.

The opposition in Beijing provides some context, however. MOUZ defeated TYLOO, BETBOOM twice, PARIVISION and The MongolZ without facing Vitality, Spirit or FURIA.

Their recent results against Spirit offer stronger evidence of their chances in Group B.

Since August, MOUZ have won four of five head-to-head series against Spirit, including a 3–1 victory in the BLAST Bounty Season 2 final and two further wins at ESL Pro League Season 24.

The latest meeting came at PGL Masters Bucharest on October 27. MOUZ lost the opening Nuke map 2–13 but recovered on Dust2 before winning the deciding Mirage 16–14 in overtime.

Spirit’s 3–1 victory in the BLAST Open Porto final on September 6 remains the exception during that period. With players such as donk and sh1ro, Spirit still possess enough individual quality to punish even brief lapses.

MOUZ have a realistic opportunity to reach the semifinals without playing an additional playoff series.

Their first opponents, G2, have lost six consecutive matches. A victory would put MOUZ into the Group B winners’ match against Spirit or FUT, with direct semifinal qualification at stake.

Winning the group would also determine their route through the playoff bracket.

The Group B winner faces the winner of a quarterfinal between Group A’s runner-up and Group B’s third-placed team. Finishing second or third would instead require MOUZ to win a quarterfinal before reaching the last four.

The potential opponents make the distinction important. Even as group winners, MOUZ could face Vitality or FURIA in the semifinals.

Neither would be a comfortable matchup.

FURIA defeated MOUZ 2–1 in the PGL Masters Bucharest semifinals on October 30, winning the deciding Cache map 13–9. Vitality were even more convincing in the ESL Pro League Season 24 final on October 11, securing a 3–0 victory.

MOUZ subsequently beat Vitality 2–0 in Bucharest, but that result requires context. Vitality were playing with Lithuanian stand-in jL instead of apEX, making it less representative of a meeting between the regular lineups.

Map statistics reveal another potential weakness.

Over the past three months, MOUZ have won 17 of 20 Mirage maps, an impressive 85% win rate. Cache has been far less reliable, with just four victories from nine maps (44.4%).

There is also little time to prepare after Beijing, with only three days separating the final in China from the team’s opening match in Hong Kong.

At odds of 3.00, MOUZ need a 33.3% chance of reaching the final for the bet to break even.

For the selection to offer positive expected value, MOUZ would need a greater than one-in-three chance of reaching the final.

Vitality are priced at 1.72 in the same market, implying approximately 58.1%, while MOUZ are available at 5.50 to win the tournament outright.

The finalist market removes the requirement to win the grand final. MOUZ only need to advance through the semifinals, rather than potentially defeat another leading contender in a Bo5 championship match.

Their current form, favorable recent record against Spirit and G2’s struggles make the 3.00 price worth considering. However, a possible semifinal against Vitality or FURIA prevents this from being a straightforward value selection.

The case for MOUZ is supported by recent results and the tournament bracket, but those factors alone do not establish a precise probability above the 33.3% threshold.

MOUZ have a credible route to another grand final, particularly if they maintain their recent advantage over Spirit and secure first place in Group B.

The semifinal remains the biggest obstacle, with Vitality and FURIA both capable of ending their campaign.

Nevertheless, the 3.00 finalist price offers a more appealing risk profile than backing MOUZ to win the entire tournament at 5.50.