Rugby League World Cup 2026 Semi-Final Preview

Four teams are left at the Rugby League World Cup. New Zealand meet Tonga in Newcastle on Saturday November 7, then Australia host Samoa at Allianz Stadium the following night, with the winners heading to Suncorp Stadium for the final on November 15.

Tonga have been the story of the tournament so far. Kristian Woolf’s side won all three pool games, and their 20-18 win over Samoa on Sunday knocked England out at the group stage for the first time.

Australia are also unbeaten and remain favorites, though the Kangaroos have been some way off their best. I’ve got both favorites going through in my Rugby League World Cup semi-final predictions, but only one of them comfortably.

Australia’s win in the opener sealed top spot in Pool A and a semi against the runner-up on the combined table, Samoa. New Zealand finished second, which meant Tonga.

Australia topped Pool A with three wins from three, while New Zealand finished second despite having the better points difference.

Tonga also went unbeaten, while Samoa edged England on points difference (+130 to +86) after both finished with four points.

Teams get two points for a win. Samoa and England both finished on four, but the Samoans had a far better points difference (+130 to +86).

The Kangaroos won all three of their pool games, though only one of them was comfortable. Jack Bostock scored a hat-trick on debut in their 24-22 opener against New Zealand, a game in which two of Australia’s five tries came from intercepts.

A much-changed side then had to dig deep again to see off Fiji 36-22 in Brisbane, before a canter in Townsville – 12 tries in a 66-6 rout of the Cook Islands.

For New Zealand, losing their opener wasn’t the only blow. Kalyn Ponga scored twice on his Kiwis debut but broke his left arm early in the second half (he played on for another 20 minutes or so). They haven’t needed him since though, beating the Cook Islands 82-16 and Fiji 78-0.

Tonga began with a 30-12 win over England in Perth, their first ever Test victory against the English. A 36-0 shutout of Lebanon followed, before a late try got them past Samoa. Samoa actually scored four tries to three that night – Isaiya Katoa’s four from four with the boot was the difference.

Samoa’s other two results were huge, with 78 points against France and 64 against PNG in Port Moresby. Only the Kiwis finished with a better points difference.

New Zealand and Australia are favorites to win their semi-finals, with Tonga and Samoa both priced as underdogs.

Australia lead the outright World Cup betting at 6/5 (2.20), closely followed by New Zealand at 6/4 (2.50).

Prices were taken on November 3.

Online bookmakers rate the two semis much the same, with Tonga only a touch shorter than Samoa. Personally, I’d price them a touch wider. Tonga’s spine is intact, while Samoa are reshuffling their halves.

New Zealand have coasted their last two matches, but don’t let that get you too excited. Neither the Cook Islands nor Fiji were ever going to be a worry. The reality is, the one quality opponent they’ve faced, they lost to.

Their forward depth is a real weapon, though. Naufahu Whyte was player of the match off the bench against Fiji (200 running meters), and Stacey Jones can turn to Erin Clark and Xavier Willison without the intensity dropping. Jamayne Isaako kicked 13 from 13 in the same game.

Out wide, they’re more vulnerable now. Ronaldo Mulitalo is suspended after his send-off against Fiji, and Ponga won’t be confirmed until close to kick-off. He’s back training and Jones says he’s a chance – if not, Keano Kini keeps the No.1 jersey.

Jacob Laban’s tournament is over with a lower leg injury, and hooker Phoenix Crossland has been called in now his four-match ban is done.

Defense is also a concern. The Kiwis leaked 40 points across the Australia and Cook Islands games, including four intercept tries.

Tonga, meanwhile, have let in just 30 in three matches. Woolf’s pack – Fonua-Blake, Jason Taumalolo and Haumole Olakau’atu – stood up to Samoa for the full 80, and Katoa has been terrific since his player of the match display against England.

They’ve beaten the Kiwis before, too. Tonga won 28-22 in Hamilton at the 2017 World Cup and again at the 2024 Pacific Championships, before New Zealand got one back at Eden Park last November.

Expect the Kiwis to get through, but this should go down to the wire. Tonga’s last World Cup semi, against England in 2017, was a 20-18 loss – the same score they beat Samoa by on Sunday.

Sunday’s semi is a rematch of the 2022 final, which the Kangaroos won 30-10 at Old Trafford.

Samoa have the strike power to win, technically. Brian To’o crossed twice against Tonga, and with Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow and Stephen Crichton alongside him and Jarome Luai pulling the strings, they can score from anywhere on the field. What let them down on Sunday was goal-kicking – one conversion from four tries.

Their bigger problem now is at No.6. Chanel Harris-Tavita strained a hamstring taking a conversion and isn’t expected to play, so Ronald Volkman, who scored and converted his own try off the bench, is likely to start. Expect Australia’s edge forwards to target him early.

Junior Paulo got off with a warning for his shoulder charge, so he’s available.

As for Australia, their pack hasn’t dominated the way I expected, and their halves haven’t exactly lit the world on fire either. A lot of their success has come out wide – Tom Trbojevic has seven tries and Bostock six, both from the wing. Reece Walsh also had a try and five try assists against the Cook Islands at fullback.

Cameron Murray missed that game through illness, so watch for him when the team is announced.

Samoa without their first-choice five-eighth, playing the Kangaroos in Sydney, is a tough sell. I’m backing the home side.

Of the two matches, I’m more confident in Australia winning. The Kiwis’ biggest strength is up front, which is also where Tonga are best equipped to fight back.

Past World Cup results, goal-kicking and scoring records reveal three trends worth considering before the semi-finals.

• Australia own this stage – they haven’t lost a World Cup game since New Zealand beat them in the 2008 final
• Goal-kicking decided the biggest pool game – Samoa outscored Tonga on tries and still lost
• Ignore the cricket scores – New Zealand scored 160 points against the Cook Islands and Fiji combined, but 22 against Australia

Here are my Rugby League World Cup 2026 predictions, with odds available at rugby betting sites.

The pool stage hasn’t swayed me from my pre-tournament pick. Australia beat New Zealand when top spot was on the line, both their remaining games are in front of home crowds, and Samoa will be without their first-choice No.6.

They’ve also drifted from 4/5 (1.80) before the tournament to 6/5 (2.20), which only makes them more appealing. Even in a repeat of the opener on November 15, I’d side with the Kangaroos.

New Zealand should win this, but I’m not so sure it’ll be by much.

Tonga are conceding just 10 points a game. Their pack can match the Kiwis’, and Katoa is reliable off the tee. Add Mulitalo’s absence and a Ponga who won’t be at 100% even if he plays, and a mere six-point start isn’t very appealing. Tonga only need to stay within a converted try.

I can see why some will be tempted by this bet. Samoa’s backline is as dangerous as any in the tournament, and their points difference is second only to the Kiwis.

But they’re without Harris-Tavita, Payne Haas missed the tournament altogether, and their goal-kicking against Tonga won’t cut it against the Kangaroos. At 12/5 (3.40), the market rates them higher than I do.

My picks are Australia to win the World Cup, Tonga to cover the handicap, and Samoa to avoid. Here’s how their betting odds, strengths, and risks compare.

If one of these goes wrong, I suspect it’ll be Tonga. Should the Kiwi forwards dominate the first 20 minutes, they could blow out.

Australia still have two games to win, and they needed a late comeback to beat New Zealand in round one. That’s why the Kiwis are only just behind them at 6/4 (2.50).

Ponga’s selection could shift the Newcastle lines in either direction, so wait for team lists and compare prices before placing anything.