Rugby League World Cup Final 2026 Predictions

Plenty tipped an Australia v New Zealand final before the Rugby League World Cup 2026 started, and the tournament has delivered it. The two trans-Tasman rivals meet at Suncorp Stadium in Brisbane on Sunday November 15, a month after the Kangaroos edged out the Kiwis 24-22 in the opener in Sydney.

Both got through their semi-finals comfortably in the end. New Zealand were briefly behind against Tonga late in the first half before pulling away to win 34-10 in the wind and rain in Newcastle, while Australia ran in eight tries against Samoa in Sydney a night later.

The Kangaroos are chasing a 13th World Cup and a fourth in a row. For the Kiwis it would be a second title – their first came at this same ground in 2008. Read on to find out who my money is on, and why I don’t think there’ll be much in it.

Suncorp has hosted two World Cup finals before this one. The Kiwis beat Australia 34-20 there in 2008, and nine years later the Kangaroos ground out a 6-0 win over England.

Australia have got better as Rugby League World Cup tournament’s gone on. A late finish got them past the Kiwis in round one, then Fiji made life awkward for them in Brisbane (36-22) before the semi-final finally showed what this group can do.

Kevin Walters’ side led 26-2 at half-time against Samoa. Reece Walsh scored three tries, Cameron Munster kicked six goals from eight, and the forwards had the Samoan middles going backwards all night – Tino Fa’asuamaleaui ran for 144 meters and Pat Carrigan made 137 off the bench.

Samoa didn’t do themselves many favors either, completing at 78% and missing a whopping 55 tackles.

New Zealand’s path to the final was interesting. They lost that opener, then piled up 160 points (and let in 16) against the Cook Islands and Fiji to set up a semi with Tonga.

Tonga made them work for it. Jojo Fifita’s double had them up 10-6 after 32 minutes, and it took a Dane Gagai try just before the break to get the Kiwis in front. From there it was one-way traffic, with New Zealand winning the second half 22-0.

Kalyn Ponga started at fullback 23 days after breaking his arm and set up three tries. Jahrome Hughes’ solo effort off a dummy and a step made it 24-10 early in the second half, and Tonga had nothing left after that.

New Zealand’s Ronaldo Mulitalo is free to play after sitting out the semi for a shoulder charge against Fiji. Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad filled in on the left wing and scored in the last minute against Tonga, so Stacey Jones has a selection call to make.

Jacob Laban won’t play again this tournament due to a lower leg injury. Phoenix Crossland, who replaced him in the squad, got 24 minutes off the bench in his first game since the NRL preliminary finals and should be sharper for the run.

For Australia, captain Isaah Yeo is holding off surgery on a ruptured pectoral to see the tournament out. Walsh kept his spot ahead of James Tedesco at fullback, and his hat-trick against Samoa should see him run on for the final.

This is also Walters’ last game in charge of the Kangaroos, so he’ll be hoping for one last hurrah.

The ruck is the obvious battle here. Many (myself included) thought New Zealand were the better team for long stretches of the opener, particularly since two of Australia’s tries came from intercepts against the run of play. The Kiwi pack of James Fisher-Harris, Joseph Tapine, Naufahu Whyte and Erin Clark is as strong as any in the game.

If Australia’s props hold up again, the spines take over. Hughes and Ponga against Munster, Tom Dearden, Walsh and Harry Grant is top-shelf stuff.

Goal-kicking will be an aspect to watch too. Jamayne Isaako converted five of the Kiwis’ six tries against Tonga, while Munster landed six from eight against Samoa. If this is anything like the opener, one missed conversion could be the difference.

This is the fifth time the two have met in a World Cup final, with Australia winning three of the previous four.

The recent record favors the Kangaroos as well. They’ve won five of the last six meetings – though the one loss in that run was a 30-0 hiding in the 2023 Pacific Cup final.

Pool-stage scorelines aren’t much help with the margin markets. The only one that tells us anything is the opener, and that went down to the closing stages.

• Close finishes lately – Australia beat the Kiwis 16-14 in the 2022 World Cup semi and 24-22 in this year’s opener
• Australia rarely lose at World Cups – the 2008 final at Suncorp is their only defeat at the tournament in 31 years
• Kiwi defense held firm – Tonga scored twice in the first half of the semi and never again

Prices were taken on November 10.

I tipped Australia to win the 2026 Rugby League World Cup before a ball was kicked and again before the semis, and the Samoa game only made me more comfortable with that.

The Kiwi pack was rated higher going into the tournament, and for long periods of the opener it looked it. Against Samoa, though, the Australian middles were on top from the first set, which gave Walsh, Munster, Dearden and Grant the room they’d been missing.

They’ve also won the last two tight World Cup games between these sides, and with a home crowd behind them in Walters’ farewell, I’m happy to stick with the favorite.

There isn’t much between these teams. Their last two World Cup meetings were both decided by two points, and if Australia win on Sunday, I expect it to be by two converted tries or fewer.

At 7/4, the margin market offers better returns than the head-to-head at bookmakers sites, and the bet can still win if the match comes down to a late score.

I can see why 41/10 tempts some people. The Kiwis won by 14 here in 2008, and they have the attack to do damage if Australia’s middles have an off night.

It was different back then though. Australia had won every game of that tournament by 24 points or more before the final, so the result was an absolute shock. This Kangaroos side has already been taken to the wire by New Zealand once, and it’s coming off its best performance of the month.

The table below summarizes my Rugby League World Cup 2026 final predictions, including the betting odds, key reasons behind each pick, and the main risks to consider.

Of my two picks, the 1-12 margin is riskier, given a late try either way can blow it out.

Backing Australia isn’t risk-free either. They spent big chunks of the first meeting on the back foot, and a Kiwi win wouldn’t surprise me.

Team lists are due later in the week, so look at the prices again once the sides are named, and compare a few bookmakers before you bet.

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