NFL Predictions

For NFL predictions, EPA, or Expected Points Added, shows how much each play helps or hurts a team’s chance of scoring. It gives a much better view than yards or final points alone.

Other stats mentioned here include DVOA and CPOE. DVOA adjusts team performance based on opponent strength and game situation, which is useful when a team’s record looks better or worse than its actual level. CPOE helps judge quarterbacks by showing the difference between easy scheme-based completions and stronger passing efficiency.

Our NFL predictions look at red zone conversion rate, third-down success, and pressure rate allowed by offensive lines. These numbers often connect better with playoff performance than basic scoring averages.

Weekly roster changes, defensive setups, and favorite-underdog records are also discussed. If a team covers the spread above 55% across a full season, it becomes a useful trend for weekly NFL predictions.