NRL Finals 2026 Preview

Looking to bet on the 2026 NRL finals? Then the below is essential reading. I’ve gone through both preliminary finals with a fine-tooth comb, from match picks to line bets and the premiership market – I cover it all ahead of a massive fortnight of rugby league.

It’s been a finals series full of surprises so far. The Warriors finished second and are already gone, the Knights finished seventh and are 80 minutes from the decider, and the Dolphins – in their first finals campaign – are hosting a preliminary final at Suncorp.

The 2026 NRL finals continue with two preliminary finals before the Grand Final on October 4.

The first two finals weeks have produced several close contests, setting up the remaining preliminary finals.

The Dolphins host the Roosters at Suncorp Stadium in a matchup between two sides with contrasting finals experience.

The Dolphins are priced as favorites, while the Roosters are available at longer odds.

The Dolphins are the rightful favorites, and at 4/6 (1.67), they’re a price I’m happy to take. Strip out the rugby bookmaker’s margin and the market gives them around a 57% chance, which I think undersells a side coming off nearly two weeks’ rest with a home crowd behind them.

Rest vs rhythm is the big factor heading into this one. The Dolphins last played on September 12, so they’ll have had 13 days between games by Friday, while the Roosters have played two physical finals in the space of six days.

That said, rest isn’t all good news. Teams coming off a week off can start slowly, and the Dolphins were behind at halftime in Auckland. If the Roosters get out to an early lead, that “freshness” could start to look more like rust.

Experience favors the Roosters too. They’ve made the finals 10 years in a row, while this is the Dolphins’ first finals series. History isn’t on their side, though: only two teams have won the NRL premiership after losing a qualifying final from the top four (the 2015 Cowboys and 2021 Panthers).

I wouldn’t read too much into the Roosters’ 46-10 win over Cronulla. Nicho Hynes copped a head knock in the first few minutes, at which point, the match was essentially over.

It was a good performance, no doubt, but it tells us very little about how the Roosters will handle a full-strength side with a settled spine. Their 19-12 loss to Penrith is a better guide. That was a proper finals arm-wrestle, and they came up a field goal and one loose pass short of winning it.

Sam Walker’s return is the big selection call for Sydney. I personally think it’s a double-edged sword. If he plays, Hugo Savala is likely to shift to the centers and Billy Smith to the bench, giving the Roosters a better kicking game and a second organizer alongside Daly Cherry-Evans.

But Walker is less than four weeks out from surgery on a high ankle problem that affects lateral movement – and that’s a worry in defense.

I expect the Dolphins to go at his channel early. Max Plath and Kulikefu Finefeuiaki both run hard lines off Isaiya Katoa and Kodi Nikorima, and the halves is exactly where a player short of full mobility gets found out.

Angus Crichton’s return is more of a positive for the Roosters. He broke six tackles in a 30-minute cameo off the bench last week, and if his minutes go up, he’s a real threat to the Dolphins’ edge defense.

The Dolphins do their damage out wide. Jamayne Isaako, Selwyn Cobbo, Herbie Farnworth and Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow have 66 tries between them this season – they’re not a group you want to be kicking loosely to.

Cobbo bagged a double in their Round 26 win over the Roosters, and Tabuai-Fidow’s length-of-the-field try in Auckland started deep in his own half. This team is at their most dangerous off turnovers and kick returns, not just from set plays.

Ball security is everything for the Roosters here. Cough it up inside their own half, and they’re handing the Dolphins the exact broken field they want.

With the line at 3.5, goal-kicking could well decide this, and the Dolphins have the edge there. Isaako has kicked 107 goals this season and landed all four conversions in the qualifying final.

The Roosters don’t have that same certainty. Savala couldn’t land a penalty goal right on halftime against Penrith and was denied again soon after the break. Walker’s return helps here, if he’s handed the tee.

But discipline is the Dolphins’ weak spot. Cobbo was sin-binned in Auckland, Katoa was placed on report, and Morgan Knowles was binned in the Round 26 game. Ten minutes a player down in a tight preliminary final is often the difference, and it’s the one thing I can see undoing them.

I lean to the under, especially if you can find 45.5. The Round 26 meeting finished at 38 points, the Dolphins’ qualifying final finished at 42, and preliminary finals tend to tighten up with both sides cautious early. Some online books have the total at 43.5, which doesn’t leave as much room.

It’s not a lock – the Roosters have more big-game experience – but I’m backing the Dolphins to reach their first Grand Final.

Penrith face Newcastle for a place in the 2026 NRL Grand Final, with the Panthers entering as clear favorites.

The market strongly favors Penrith, while Newcastle come in as the underdogs for this preliminary final.

Penrith at 2/7 (1.28) is short, but I think it’s the right price. Strip out the margin and the market has them at about a 75% chance, which feels about right.

I don’t agree with the line though. At Panthers -10.5, with the total at 42.5 points, I think the market has gone too far on the margin.

Nathan Cleary’s foot could change how Penrith play this game. He’s got a stress-related bone injury. Reports have him being named, but handing the goal-kicking to Dylan Edwards or Paul Alamoti and most of the general-play kicking to Jack Cogger.

This is a big deal. Cleary’s long kicking game is how Penrith win the territory battle, pin teams in their own end and build pressure set after set.

Cogger is a good organizer, but he’s no Cleary with the boot. I expect Penrith to rely on their forwards and on Edwards’ support play, or even keep Blaize Talagi in the centers as an extra kicking option.

Edwards has already kicked one in a big moment – he took the final conversion against the Roosters – but big picture, Cleary not handling it is a backwards step.

This is where I think Penrith win the game. Newcastle are without Daniel Saifiti, Trey Mooney and Dylan Brown, and they’ve been making do with rookie front-rowers.

Penrith’s pack is far more experienced, with Moses Leota and Liam Martin both having played in multiple Grand Finals.

That said, Isaah Yeo is playing through a ruptured pectoral, which limits how hard he can tackle and carry. If Newcastle’s young forwards hold their own early, Penrith’s edge shrinks quickly.

Dylan Lucas is also back for the Knights. He played the final stretch at Eden Park in his return from an ankle injury and should have more minutes on Sunday.

The Knights don’t need long sets to score, which is what makes them dangerous. They’ve got a habit of scoring from distance this season – case in point, both of their semi-final tries came from a line break or a turnover.

Fletcher Sharpe is their key man. His try at Eden Park came off a Bradman Best break, and his running game at five-eighth is Newcastle’s best weapon.

Dom Young is the other. He’s one of the best aerial wingers in the NRL, and will be kicked to a lot by the Knights. With Cleary unlikely to kick for Penrith, they also lose some of their ability to target their own wingers, meaning the aerial battle could tilt Newcastle’s way.

I’m staying well away from Panthers -10.5. Newcastle’s finals games have been low-scoring and tight – they won 20-10 and 12-10 – a far cry from their regular-season result.

Penrith’s own qualifying final was a 19-12 grind, and that was with Cleary fit enough to kick. Without him at full strength, I just don’t see a double-digit margin.

I’m keen on the under at 42.5 as well. Newcastle’s two finals had 30 and 22 total points, and Penrith’s qualifying final had 31. With Penrith’s kicking game weakened and the Knights defending the way they are, I can’t see this one blowing out.

Penrith are my pick, though I don’t think it’ll be the comfortable win the price suggests.

The premiership picture is taking shape, with four teams still in contention and several possible Grand Final matchups on the table.

Penrith lead the current outright market, followed by the Dolphins, Roosters and Knights.

The available pairings show different paths to the October 4 Grand Final, with Penrith and the Dolphins forming the shortest-priced combination.

If the favorites get through, it’s Penrith vs the Dolphins at Accor Stadium on October 4, and on recent evidence, that’d be a tight one. They met in Round 7 in Darwin, and Penrith won 23-22 in golden point.

The Dolphins would get an extra 48 hours’ rest after playing on Friday. Penrith would have the edge in experience and up front, provided Cleary’s foot holds up for a second big game.

None of the other combinations look like mismatches either. The Roosters beat Penrith 12-6 at CommBank Stadium late in the regular season, and Newcastle beat the Dolphins 13-12 in Round 18.

Penrith at 23/20 (2.15) to win the premiership is my Grand Final bet, and I’m happy to take it now rather than wait. Divide their premiership price by their preliminary final price, and the market has them at around 1.68 in the decider itself, with the Dolphins at around 2.10.

So the market already has Penrith as clear favorites in a Panthers vs Dolphins Grand Final, and 2.15 now pays about the same as backing them this weekend and again next week. 

The only upside to waiting is knowing how Cleary’s foot held up.

The final markets combine match picks, handicap options and the outright premiership market, with injuries and team news potentially affecting the prices before kickoff.

The Panthers pick carries the most uncertainty this week. If Cleary pulls up badly at training, or doesn’t play at all, I’d look at this game again.

Team lists and injury news will move these markets before kickoff, so recheck prices before you bet.