Tennis Handicap Betting

Tennis handicap betting is among the exciting and most popular markets punters love. In the sections below, you will find useful information about tennis handicaps, including how to use this market to increase your betting profits.

To kick-start this, it would be important to inform you that handicap betting is similar to tennis betting spread, which punters and sportsbooks in the USA use. On the other hand, players and bookmakers in Europe use handicap betting terminology.

Currently, there are many markets where you can place bets when it comes to betting on tennis. However, to be profitable, you need to take lots of risks.

You can place bets on your favourite player with some good odds to avoid taking risks. And this is where tennis handicap betting comes in. With handicap tennis betting, you will not bet on the result of the tennis game.

In tennis handicap betting, a better player is given a distinct advantage. At the same time, his opponent is given a handicap or a disadvantage to balance their chances of winning.

Like most sports, one player or team is a favourite to win while the other is an underdog. And this also applies to tennis. To minimize this perception, tennis betting handicaps emphasize the form and performance of the two players or teams rather than the outcome of the game.

The handicap tennis betting line is based on the number of games every player wins, not the number of outcomes or sets. Knowing this is important when placing bets so that you can find exactly what you’re looking for and understand what to cheer on. 

This makes it a bit different to other types of tennis bets, which all depend on the outcome of a game, the correct score in sets and other similar things.

Your player does not need to win for you to walk away with a profit on the handicap line. This is something important that you need to remember when making your selections.

Here is a perfect example of a tennis handicap line bet and what needs to happen for you to win. The men’s three-set matches with a handicap line of 4.5.

In this case, for a favourite to win, he must win by a minimum of five games. And the outsider secures a head start of 4.5, meaning he needs to lose or win by a maximum of four games.

If the favourite wins the game 6-4, 6-4, 6-4, and you have backed him on the handicap line; you’ll win. In total, the winning margin is six games, more than the five required. If the favourite wins the match 2-6, 6-4, 6-4, 6-4, he will lose the match on the handicap line. 

The margin here is only two games, meaning it’s the outsider who has won since he has just lost by two matches. He was able to lose by four, winning on the handicap line.

This example shows that you can win the match but lose the handicap, indicating that the overall outcome has no impact on whether your bet is a winner or a loser.

If the favourite loses the match 6-0, 4-6, 6-1, 4-6, 4-6, despite losing the competition, he will win on the handicap line. 24-19 is the game total for this, which means that the player has won by five games and needed to win by a minimum of five.

It is the most complicated result, but it indicates that when you place a bet on the handicap line since it uses the total number of matches won the final result doesn’t matter at all. 

There will be cases where a player can’t lose the match but wins the handicap because of the number of games he needs to win, especially when the handicap line grows. However, this only happens when the handicap line is massive. 

Tennis handicap betting can be a very fruitful endeavor if done correctly. However, it’s important to take an intentional approach to your betting strategy, paying close attention to surface, conditions and past results.

1. Know Your Conditions

The beauty of tennis is how nuanced the sport is when it comes to conditions. Weather – heat, wind, humidity – and altitude can have a big impact on different players. 

For example, a big server will thrive in dry, high altitude conditions, as the ball flies through the air faster. Hot, humid conditions may be better for a very fit player that trains in similar atmospheres. 

Any time you go to bet on a handicap, do your research and consider the impact of the conditions on each player first – you’d be surprised how often this is overlooked by bookmakers.

2. Understand the Impact of Surface

Similar to conditions, the surface on which a tennis match is being played is important. Whether it’s clay, hard or grass will determine if the ball sits up and slows down upon impact with the court, or skids on and stays low.

This may sound like a minor factor, but it has a huge impact on how different players perform. Take Casper Ruud, for example. The Norwegian is top five in the world on clay, but barely in the top 50 on grass. 

Read more about it in our article: How Surface Impacts Betting on Tennis.

3. Have a Good Source of Statistics

As you’ll see in our strategy below, having good information is important for handicap betting. Whenever you’re considering whether or not to place a bet, you want to have easy access to the following:

We recommend using a site like tennisabstract.com, which offers a useful tool for filtering different statistics.

4. Be Patient

Not all matches are good to bet on. Sometimes match ups are too mercurial, or bookmakers’ odds don’t allow for a good value bet. That’s OK – there are plenty of tennis matches to bet on each week. 

The key to tennis handicap betting is being patient and taking good bets, this is not a market to be taking risks.

There are several drawbacks to handicap betting, which is why not every punter enjoys the market. Here are some of the negatives:

1. Unpredictable Outcomes

Tennis is a sport where a lot of upsets occur. This is partly due to it being an individual sport, partly due to the high volume of matches played each year, and partly due to the level playing field across the top 100.

This makes handicapping tennis matches inherently risky, even though the intention is for handicap betting to be a conservative market.

2. Mental Lapses

Players can win, be in control of matches the majority of the time, and be far better than their opponents, but still not cover the handicap.

This is because tennis is a sport where mental lapses can occur easily. Switch off for 10 minutes and three games can be dropped, which is the difference between a bet hitting or missing.

3. Low Returns

You will never win big in betting tennis handicap. Returns will typically be between 1.70 (-143) and 1.95 (-105), with tennis bookmakers setting their markets so the bet is essentially 50/50. While we can gain an edge through the strategies outlined in this article, it’s still more of a volume game than a one-and-done bet.

The best way to bet on tennis handicaps – assuming you’ve already taken into account the surface, conditions and form – is to analyze the matchup thoroughly. 

Tennis is all about matchups, which is why some players struggle against certain opponents while doing well against others. It’s not uncommon for underdogs to outperform bookmaker expectations in tennis, the trick is picking when it will happen.

The best place to start is analyzing the head-to-head between the two players. Who has won more? How close have the matches been? How recent were they?

Then, dig into each players’ strengths and weaknesses. What are their main paths to victory, and what typically causes them to lose matches?

Ideally watching and being familiar with each players’ game is the best way of understanding this, but there are plenty of statistics available online if you’re looking to bet on new players.

Once you have a good understanding of the matchup, this is the best spot from which to make a prediction of how the match will unfold. Then, jump onto your preferred bookie, and see if their handicap lines up with what you’re predicting.

If it does, take the bet! If not, be patient – the time for a better bet will come.

For tennis games, online betting sites offer many handicap variations, including set and game handicaps and total games. Each of these tennis betting systems is based on how dominant a player will be over the other, but at different moments of a single match.

It is also important to know that there are two major types of tennis players: those stronger on serves, like John Isner, and those stronger on grinders. 

The first type (those stronger on serves) earn more points serving themselves, while the players of the second type (those stronger on grinders) manage to succeed when their competitors serve.

In simple words, these are two different tennis handicap betting systems: attacking and defensive. Statistical information states that grinders perform best when playing on a slow surface, while servers succeed when the game is played on a fast surface.

Set handicap tennis betting means placing a bet on a certain player to win a game when a given handicap is applied. Seasoned bettors already know that handicapping is subtracting some points from the favourites’ or adding some points to the underdogs’ final scores.

That is why positive handicaps are given to the weaker players while negative ones are given to the favourites. 

Negative handicaps are used by skillful punters to place bets on better odds and reckon on getting greater benefits.

At the same time, punters use positive handicaps to achieve higher winning probabilities. It isn’t reasonable to bet at a guess since corresponding research will massively improve your gambling results.

For more on set betting, check out our article on set betting strategies.

Tennis game handicap betting markets come in handy when backing the favourites. However, there are a few cautions. You should avoid covering massive game handicaps since one bad set can give you a losing bet. 

But you can use this as an advantage, pick the other side of the handicap, and place a bet on the underdog. In ATP or WTA tennis game handicap betting, you should target big servers that are difficult to break down when they’re the underdogs.

In conclusion, tennis handicap betting balances the competition between favourites and underdogs by focusing on the number of games won rather than the match outcome.

Success in this type of betting requires careful analysis of player performance, conditions, matchups, patience, and strategic decision-making. While it offers modest returns, understanding the factors influencing player performance can lead to more informed and successful bets.