Who Will Be the Next Pope? Betting Predictions and Overview

Following the death of Pope Francis on April 21, preparations for the election of a new pope began immediately.

At a meeting on April 28, attended by all 252 cardinals, it was decided that the new pope would be elected on May 7. However, it is unclear when he will be elected, as the election continues until at least one of the candidates receives two-thirds of the votes.

Who will be the next pope after Pope Francis? Six names stand out among all the candidates, with odds for the next pope of less than 10.00 for their victory.

The main candidate is Pietro Parolin. Luis Antonio Tagle, Peter Turkson, Matteo Zuppi, Robert Sarah, and Pierbattista Pizzaballa are also candidates for the papacy. The new pope will likely be chosen from among these six names.

Knowing that 135 cardinals will elect the new pope, we can first look at the situation of those electing him.

Almost 80% of the current cardinals were appointed by Pope Francis himself. Most of them are cardinals from Europe – 53, nearly 40% of the total.

There are 27 cardinals from Asia and Oceania, 21 from Central America, 16 from North America, and 18 from Africa. Italy has 17 cardinals, which is a significant number considering that one of the main candidates is Italian. The US has 10 cardinals, Brazil has 7, and France has 5.

Undoubtedly, the new pope will be from Europe, Asia or Africa. The continents of North and South America are given minimal chances. Top bookmakers give North America odds of 13.00 and South America 25.00. The odds that the pope will be from Europe are 1.95, which is a good bet, according to pope predictions.

Before we look at the main candidates, it’s worth noting that since 741, all popes except the last one, Francis, were born in Europe. Europe dominates in this respect, as reflected in the number of cardinals, about 40% of whom are from Europe. Pope Francis was born in Buenos Aires, Argentina, and was the first non-European pope elected in 1,300 years.

Two of the three main candidates are not European. Luis Antonio Tagle was born in the Philippines and Peter Turkson in Ghana. If either of these candidates were elected, it would be the first time in history that a pope has come from Asia or Africa.

If Turkson were elected, he would be the first pope from Africa and the first black pope. However, this raises the question of whether the Catholic world is ready, according to next pope predictions.

Pietro Parolin is the 70-year-old Vatican secretary. He was ordained a cardinal in 2014. Before taking up his position as secretary, he worked for 30 years in the Holy See’s diplomatic service and in Nigeria, Mexico, and Venezuela.

One of the main differences between this candidate and Pope Francis is that Parolin is not as close to the liberal wing. The Italian is considered the leading candidate despite having had problems managing the Church’s finances, which is seen as one of his most significant drawbacks.

It can be said that Parolin is the main European representative in these elections. If a European is elected, it is highly probable that it will be Parolin.

Luis Antonio Tagle is a 67-year-old Filipino Catholic cardinal and former archbishop of Manila. He was born in Manila, Philippines, and has a real chance of becoming the first pope from Asia.

Unlike Parolin, Luis Antonio Tagle is often considered the Francis of Asia. Therefore, if the cardinals do not want significant changes in the Church, the simplest solution would be to elect Luis Antonio Tagle.

Another advantage of this candidate is that Asia is currently the region with the fastest-growing Catholic population. Undoubtedly, Luis Antonio Tagle would unite countries that are distant from each other through religion.

Unlike his rival Peter Turkson from Africa, Luis Antonio Tagle is a more acceptable choice for many. It is no coincidence that the Filipino has been given almost the same odds as the Italian, so betting on L. Tagle seems like a good choice.

Peter Turkson will soon celebrate his 77th birthday, which is one of his major disadvantages compared to his main rivals. The Italian P. Parolin is almost seven years younger, and Luis Antonio Tagle is a whole decade younger.

P. Turkson is a former president of various church institutions and participated in two conclaves when Benedict XVI and Francis were elected. A big plus for P. Turkson is that he is the most influential cardinal from Africa so that he may have strong support from the cardinals of that region.

Selected cardinals elect the pope, and only conclave members under 80 are eligible to vote. There are many names among the candidates, as theoretically, any baptized man can become the new pope. This is how it used to be when a prominent Christian was elected pope. The situation has changed; the pope is elected only from among the cardinals.

A conclave is a meeting of the College of Cardinals, known as the process of electing a new pope. The cardinals gathered for the conclave are locked in and sealed off. They remain there until a new pope is elected.

The cardinals have no contact with the outside world, and they decide everything. Unlike in politics, the main candidates for the papacy do not campaign – everything takes place behind closed doors.

The voting process is straightforward: each cardinal writes down the name of his favorite candidate who can be the next pope and casts his secret ballot. The votes are then counted, and if one of the candidates receives at least two-thirds of the votes, the election is declared over and the new pope is announced.

The people in the Vatican can also observe the results of the vote – if black smoke appears from the Sistine Chapel, it means that the pope has not been elected and another round is needed. If a pope is elected, white smoke appears, and after about 10-15 minutes, the new pope is officially announced.

Up to four rounds of voting take place in one day. If that is not enough, voting continues the next day. There have been cases in history when the election of a new pope took an exceptionally long time.

The situation has changed significantly, and the election usually lasts only a few days. The last two popes were elected on the second day, with Pope Francis being elected in the 5 round of voting.

If you want to bet on who will be the new pope, Pietro Parolin and Luis Antonio Tagle are excellent choices. If you believe that the pope will be from Europe, choose Europe. If you think a pope from Asia or Africa may be selected this time, Peter Turkson or Luis Antonio Tagle are candidates worth considering.