UFC 329 Prediction: Benoit Saint-Denis vs Paddy Pimblett (12-07-2026)

Benoit Saint-Denis and Paddy Pimblett meet in one of the most intriguing fights on the UFC 329 card.

Saint-Denis enters as the favourite after building strong momentum, but Pimblett’s odds are attractive enough to justify a closer look.

While the Frenchman holds the statistical edge in several grappling categories, the matchup itself offers the underdog a realistic path to victory.

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It is important to separate the statistics from the betting case.

Saint-Denis has been the more active wrestler throughout his UFC career, averaging more takedowns while also posting stronger takedown defence numbers.

Based purely on those metrics, he deserves the advantage in traditional wrestling exchanges.

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The argument for Pimblett lies elsewhere.

His biggest weapon is what happens after the fight reaches the ground.

He has built his career around opportunistic submissions and remains dangerous whenever scrambles, clinch exchanges or positional battles develop.

Saint-Denis is an aggressive, forward-moving fighter, and that style naturally creates the type of situations where Pimblett has produced some of his best work.

There are obvious risks.

Saint-Denis enters on a four-fight winning streak, including an impressive finish over Dan Hooker, and his pressure could make life difficult for Pimblett on the feet.

If the fight becomes a striking battle fought almost entirely at range, the favourite will likely have the advantage.

However, with odds of 2.20, Pimblett doesn’t need to be the safer fighter for this choice to make sense.

He only needs a credible route to victory, and his submission threat, composure during grappling transitions and ability to capitalise on aggressive attacks provide exactly that.