UEFA Nations League Prediction: Turkey vs Italy (28-09-2026)

Turkey and Italy meet in Bursa on September 28, with both teams looking for their first points of the 2026/27 UEFA Nations League campaign.

Turkey opened with a 1-0 home defeat to France, while Roberto Mancini’s return to the Italian national team ended in a 2-0 loss against Belgium.

Monday’s meeting gives both sides an immediate opportunity to recover, with the opening goal market offering an interesting option.

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Turkey’s recent results reveal a recurring problem. Vincenzo Montella’s side have conceded the opening goal in five consecutive matches, including their World Cup fixtures against Australia, Paraguay and the United States.

The 3-2 victory over the Americans was their only win during that tournament. Turkey recovered after conceding in the third minute, but failed to score against either Australia or Paraguay.

Their UEFA Nations League opener followed a similar pattern, with Kylian Mbappé breaking the deadlock for France in the second half.

Montella now faces another complication. Uğurcan Çakır was dismissed in the closing stages against France and must serve a suspension, leaving Altay Bayındır as the expected replacement in goal.

Italy also have plenty to improve after Belgium scored in both halves at the Stadio Olimpico.

Mancini’s side struggled during the opening 45 minutes, although their performances in June’s victories over Luxembourg and Greece showed a greater ability to control matches against less demanding opposition.

The historical record favours the visitors. Italy have won nine of their 13 previous meetings with Turkey, drawing the other four.

Their most recent competitive encounter ended in a 3-0 Italian victory at Euro 2020.

Turkey’s home advantage makes an Italian victory far from certain, particularly with both teams still searching for consistency.

However, the hosts’ repeated slow starts and the absence of their first-choice goalkeeper provide a reasonable case for Italy getting on the scoresheet first.