UEFA Champions League Prediction: Qarabağ – Ajax (10-12-2025)

Qarabağ return to Baku for a crucial league phase fixture against bottom placed Ajax, looking to stay inside the top 24. The Azerbaijani champions have exceeded expectations so far and now face an opponent going through one of their toughest European stretches in recent memory.

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Qarabağ have collected seven points from their first five matches (W2, D1, L2), showing clear improvement compared to last season’s Europa League finish. Their biggest strength remains their performances in Baku: ten straight home games unbeaten across all competitions (W7, D3) and two goals scored in each UCL home match so far.

Defensive problems still exist – they’ve conceded 2+ goals in four of five league-phase games – but their attacking consistency keeps them competitive.

Ajax, meanwhile, are collapsing in Europe. The Dutch giants have lost five consecutive UCL matches, effectively dropping out of contention for the top 24. They’re on the brink of losing six straight Champions League games for the first time in their history and already became the first Eredivisie club in nearly a decade to start a UCL campaign with five losses.

Their away record adds to the concern – just two wins in their last 11 competitive road fixtures (D5, L4), highlighting a team struggling to compete outside Amsterdam.

Qarabağ remain without Kady Borges, but the team has adapted well, particularly at home. Nəriman Axundzadə continues to be a positive influence – Qarabağ have won all four matches in which he has found the net this season. Ajax could again be without Josip Šutalo, who missed their weekend match and remains doubtful.

Given Qarabağ’s strong home form, Ajax’s prolonged slump and the growing confidence of the hosts, the Baku side are well placed to secure another important result in front of their supporters.