NBL27 Season Preview 2026/27

NBL27 tips off this Saturday, and the title race is about as crowded as it gets.

The season opens on 19 September with a double-header: Melbourne United v Adelaide 36ers, then Perth Wildcats v South East Melbourne Phoenix. Each club plays 33 regular-season games, and the top six qualify for the finals, with the Play-In deciding the last semi-final spots.

The Sydney Kings are the defending champions, Melbourne are the favorites, but spoiler alert: I’m not backing either of them.

Read on for the key dates, what’s changed over the off-season, the full championship odds and my NBL27 best bets.

Under the Play-In system, the top two go straight through to the Playoffs. Third and fourth meet in a Seeding Qualifier, and fifth and sixth play off for the chance to stay alive. The Championship Series is best-of-five.

Sydney were the best team for most of last season, and they finished the job.

The Kings were minor premiers at 24-9 after winning 17 of their last 19 games. Adelaide were second at 23-10, and Bryce Cotton picked up his sixth MVP, and third in a row. That MVP came in Cotton’s first season with the 36ers.

South East Melbourne were third at 22-11. Melbourne finished fifth and went out in the Play-In, beaten 95-77 by Perth.

Then came the decider, which Adelaide had won… until they didn’t.

The Sixers led by six with just over two minutes left in Game 5, before a Tim Soares offensive rebound and putback sent it to overtime. Sydney ran away with the extra period, outscoring Adelaide 18-6. Kendric Davis had 35 points and 14 assists in front of a record NBL crowd of 18,589. Cotton matched his 35 points.

That loss will still be front of mind for Adelaide, who are chasing their first title in 24 years.

Four clubs have new head coaches, and two of them are the top two in the market.

Melbourne made the biggest splash. Cole Anthony arrives at 26 after 350 NBA games. Joe Ingles and Luke Travers join a local group that already includes Chris Goulding and Shea Ili.

Adelaide went after the one piece they were missing. They’ve kept almost all of the core that came within a layup of the title and added Bul Kuol, one of the best perimeter defenders in the league. But there’s a catch. Kuol is coming back from an ACL injury and is expected to miss a big chunk of the season.

Sydney have gone backwards on paper. Jaylin Galloway and Kuol have both left, which leaves more on Davis’s plate, next to an aging Matthew Dellavedova. Torrey Craig is back, while Andrew Carr is their newest import.

Elsewhere, Taran Armstrong has come home to Tasmania, and Dakota Mathias has joined him. Returning import Bryce Hamilton will miss the start of the season as he recovers from an ACL injury.

South East Melbourne have three new imports (Skylar Mays, Yannis Morin and D’Shawn Schwartz) and have added Next Star Dash Daniels. Cairns have signed 17-year-old Next Star Luke Paul. And Perth finally landed their point guard this week, signing former NBA guard Brandon Knight – although the deal still needs League approval.

The schedule has had a shake-up too. Wednesday night basketball returns through the Ignite Cup. HoopsFest is back in Perth in January, and the 12 Days of Christmas period returns across Rounds 13 and 14, running from 16 to 27 December.

Betting odds correct as of 18 September 2026 and subject to change.

Melbourne deserve to be favorites. I just don’t want them at 23/10.

Their squad’s talent is obvious. Anthony could be the best individual player in the league, but United may be at their best when he doesn’t have to dominate every possession. That’s a big shift for someone coming straight out of the NBA, and a first-year coach in Chance has to get him on board with it.

Their recent record is a warning too. United were minor premiers in NBL24 and lost the Championship Series to Tasmania. A year later they finished second and lost the Championship Series again, this time to Illawarra. They’ve been one of the league’s best regular-season sides without being able to close.

Adelaide are my pick instead.

They’re fronting largely the same group that fell one play short last season, just with a championship-winning coach and an elite defender added. Gleeson and Cotton have already proven themselves as a winning partnership. Cotton is also chasing a seventh MVP, which would draw him level with Andrew Gaze.

I do have a couple of doubts. Kuol might not be ready until the back half of the season. Gleeson may also manage Cotton’s minutes more carefully.

I’m staying away from Sydney.

NBL title defenses have been brutal in recent years. Tasmania won NBL24, then finished seventh and missed the NBL25 finals. Illawarra won NBL25 and finished eighth in NBL26, also missing the finals.

Sydney are in better shape than either of those sides were. Goorjian is still there, and Davis can win games on his own. But they’ve lost depth, and 11/2 isn’t enough for that risk.

Tasmania are the side I’ve gone back and forth on the most. If Will Magnay and their core stay healthy, the JackJumpers have the depth and physicality for another deep run. I think how quickly Armstrong fits into Roth’s system could decide their ceiling. But that’s two big ifs, so I can’t confidently back them at 7/1.

South East Melbourne are my value play. They finished third last season, and they’re priced behind a team that finished sixth. Nathan Sobey and Jordan Hunter lead the local group, and the Phoenix finished second at the Blitz. Three new imports means it could take a few weeks to click, but I’ll take 17/2 on that.

Perth are the team I’d expect to shorten. Knight played 451 NBA games, and the Wildcats waited all off-season to get their man. The 34-year-old won’t be rushed onto the court, but a proven point guard alongside Kristian Doolittle makes them more dangerous than their 12/1 price in my opinion.

Illawarra have overhauled their imports with Darius Days, Milton Doyle and Kelan Martin, while Brisbane’s roster turnover makes them a risky outright bet until the chemistry shows.

I’m a Kiwi, so it hurts to write this about the Breakers. Herbert is a huge coaching addition and Parker Jackson-Cartwright is still an elite guard, but defensive depth is a concern. They’re also starting without import Josiah-Jordan James, who tore his hamstring in pre-season and will be reassessed in four to six weeks. Add the travel, and 19/1 is a bet I’d make with my heart, not my head.

Cairns are the long shot at 25/1. Paul will be fun to watch, but I don’t see a title run this season.

For basketball bettors, the favorites that deliver are the teams that top the ladder, and they tend to still be standing at the end. The value is in strong sides priced outside the top two, and that’s where South East Melbourne sit.

• Minor premiers have reached the Championship Series in each of the last three seasons and won two of them
• The last two defending champions both missed the finals the following season
• You don’t need to finish first to win it. Sydney won NBL22 from third, and Tasmania won NBL24 from third

These are the main NBL27 predictions.

Adelaide are the most solid of the three. The case rests on a group that’s already shown it can get within one play of a title, and the biggest risk is how long Kuol takes to get back on the floor.

South East Melbourne have the most uncertainty around them. Three new imports have to click quickly, and this is the selection I’d put the smallest stake on.

Avoiding Sydney is a call on recent trends, not on talent. Davis is good enough to make me look silly.

Prices at online bookmakers can move quickly once the season tips off, and Perth’s signing of Knight came after these odds were set. Check the latest prices again before placing a bet.