Nations Championship 2026 November Preview

The inaugural Nations Championship resumes on November 6, with the Six Nations sides hosting the southern hemisphere for the last three rounds. Finals Weekend then follows at Twickenham from November 27 to 29, and the two conference winners play for the trophy on Sunday November 29.

July left South Africa and New Zealand level on 15 points at the top of the southern table, both unbeaten. France lead the north on 12, a point ahead of Scotland. The Springboks head the outright betting at 4/5 (1.80), with France at 3/1 (4.00) and the All Blacks at 4/1 (5.00).

I think the market has the right two teams at the top of the south, but it’s undervaluing one of them. I also think England are too short.

The 12 teams are in two conferences – the Six Nations sides form the north, while the south is the four Rugby Championship nations plus Fiji and Japan.

Each side plays all six teams from the other conference once, three at home and three away. Fiji’s ground didn’t meet the stadium requirements, so their three July “home” games went to Cardiff, Liverpool and Edinburgh. Japan also agreed to some neutral ground matches.

Points work as normal. Four for a win, two for a draw, a bonus for four tries and another for losing by fewer than eight.

Where teams finish on the table decides who they meet on finals weekend. First plays first for the title, second plays second, and it carries on down to sixth v sixth. In short, no sides get knocked out, but only the two conference winners play for the title.

France lead the northern conference by one point over Scotland, with England and Ireland close behind.

South Africa and New Zealand are level on 15 points in the south, but the Springboks lead on points difference.

South Africa barely broke a sweat, beating England 45-21 at Ellis Park, Scotland 42-28 in Pretoria and Wales 43-0 in Durban.

New Zealand’s first win wasn’t quite as comfortable, edging France 34-32 in Christchurch, before they coasted home against Italy 47-17 and Ireland 40-21. Will Jordan scored six tries in those three games – nobody else in the competition has more than four.

France were without Antoine Dupont, who withdrew after Toulouse won the Top 14 final. Even so, they beat Australia 42-26 in Brisbane and Japan 42-15 in Tokyo. Their scrum-half Maxime Lucu is the competition’s top points scorer with 37.

All four of the chasing pack in the north won twice. Scotland took a 47-38 shootout in Cordoba, England ran in 73 points against Fiji in Liverpool before winning 31-24 in Argentina, and Ireland beat the Wallabies 33-31 in Sydney.

The Springboks and All Blacks then played a four-Test series in August and September. It didn’t count toward the Nations Championship, but it’s the most significant form we have on the two southern leaders.

New Zealand won the first Test 33-16 at Ellis Park, ending South Africa’s 12-Test winning streak. The Boks won the next three – 33-26 in Cape Town, 29-24 in Soweto and 43-28 in Baltimore – for their first series win over New Zealand since 1976. The All Blacks have since thrashed the Wallabies twice too.

Fiji had no price in the market I used, which is why they’re missing above. Everything here was priced up before Round 4.

Sports bookmakers have it as a three-team race. England are the first side outside it at 10/1 (11.00), and from Scotland down the prices blow out fast.

South Africa are the reigning world champions, and have just beaten New Zealand three Tests running. However, their November schedule is the hardest, with both France and Ireland looming.

They’ll do it without Cheslin Kolbe (broken jaw), Eben Etzebeth (leg), Handre Pollard (hamstring) or Andre Esterhuizen (ankle). RG Snyman, Kwagga Smith and Deon Fourie were already out long-term. Rassie Erasmus has named six uncapped players in his 37-man squad.

Dave Rennie only took the All Blacks job in March, and he’s had injuries to manage all year. Ardie Savea, Ruben Love, Billy Proctor and Caleb Clarke are all unavailable. Tyrel Lomax, Samisoni Taukei’aho and Shannon Frizell have joined them, though Jordie Barrett, Richie Mo’unga, Quinn Tupaea and Anton Lienert-Brown are all back from injury.

New Zealand’s draw is slightly kinder than South Africa’s. They go to Scotland, Wales and England, and they’re level with South Africa on points. The Boks lead on points difference (+81 to +51), but if they lose in Paris or Dublin, the All Blacks can top the south by winning out. Or, if the All Blacks go full strength against Wales and make up that differential gap.

France won the Six Nations this year. Their November games are Fiji in Lyon, then South Africa and Argentina in Saint-Denis. Dupont is back, with Romain Ntamack beside him at No 10, and Gregory Alldritt and Damian Penaud have been recalled.

They’ve also got a raft of injuries. Thomas Ramos, Matthieu Jalibert, Julien Marchand, Thibaud Flament and Emmanuel Meafou are just some of the more than a dozen players ruled out. And with Scotland only a point back, France can’t afford many slips.

England are on 10 points with the best points difference in the north at +48. They host Australia, Japan and New Zealand, with the All Blacks last up on November 21. First-choice fly-half Fin Smith is also a doubt for the Australia opener with a calf problem.

Ireland are on 10 points too, but at -1 on points difference. Argentina and Fiji come first in Dublin, then South Africa on November 21.

Scotland are second, and Murrayfield hosts New Zealand, Australia and Japan. They’re 33/1 (34.00), and the opener is a tough one – Scotland have never beaten the All Blacks.

Australia are seven points back and Argentina eight, with three games left, so 250/1 (251.00) about both makes sense. Australia did score 57 points against Italy in Perth. Argentina have lost prop Thomas Gallo to wrist surgery.

That leaves Wales, Italy, Japan and Fiji playing for placings.

Four of these I’d be surprised to see go the other way. Wales v Japan isn’t one of them. Wales lost 43-0 in Durban in their last Nations Championship game, and Japan beat Italy 27-10 in July. I’m sticking with the home side, but only just.

England v Australia is the other I’d keep an eye on. The Wallabies only lost to Ireland by two in July, and England’s fly-half situation is dicey.

A losing bonus point already separates France from Scotland. With only three rounds left, a close defeat may be as important as a narrow win.

• Tight games at the top – New Zealand v France and Australia v Ireland, two of July’s biggest games, were both decided by two points
• Bonus points count – France and Scotland each picked up three try bonuses in July, and France’s losing bonus is why they lead the north
• Points difference is tight in places – England have the north’s best (+48) but sit third, while South Africa lead New Zealand by 30

Here are my three Nations Championship 2026 predictions, with odds available at leading football betting sites.

They won the series against New Zealand and they top the south. Their injuries hurt, Kolbe and Etzebeth especially. But Erasmus has coped with absences before, and if it comes down to one game in London, they’re the side I’d back.

South Africa could drop a game in Paris or Dublin, and the All Blacks may win at Murrayfield, Cardiff and Twickenham by good margins. If either happen, New Zealand most likely meet France, who they beat in Christchurch in July.

Both of those can happen. I’d have the All Blacks shorter than 4/1 (5.00).

England’s have to play New Zealand on November 21, and even a win there might not be enough, because France also need to drop points. Then they’d most likely get South Africa, who beat them 45-21 in July.

At 10/1 (11.00), I’m not getting involved.

My top picks are South Africa to win, New Zealand as the value bet, and England to avoid. Here’s how their betting odds, strengths, and risks compare.

South Africa won’t pay much at 4/5 (1.80), and injured regulars make them less of a lock than the price suggests. Backing them as well as New Zealand also means at most one of these two bets can win. I’m fine with that at these prices, but I’d keep the All Blacks stake smaller.

England are the call I’m least sure of. Three home games and +48 is a strong base, and beating the All Blacks on November 21 would change things quickly.

These odds won’t survive France v South Africa on Friday November 13 unchanged, whichever way it goes. If you’re betting after that, use the new prices, not these.