Formula 1 United States Grand Prix Predictions (25-10-2026)

Formula 1 heads to Austin for Round 18 of the 2026 season, with the United States Grand Prix taking place from October 23–25 at Circuit of The Americas.

Max Verstappen arrives after consecutive victories in Malaysia and Singapore, while Kimi Antonelli leads the Drivers’ Championship by 102 points over George Russell.

Mercedes have dominated much of the season, but Red Bull’s recent improvement has brought Verstappen back into contention for race wins.

Sunday’s Grand Prix covers 56 laps of the 5.513-kilometre circuit. Unlike last year, Austin will not host a Sprint, giving teams three practice sessions before Saturday’s qualifying.

Three markets stand out for these Formula 1 United States Grand Prix predictions: Verstappen to win at 2.20, Antonelli to finish on the podium at 1.50 and Verstappen to qualify fastest at 2.75.

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Odds provided as of October 18, 2026, and may change before the race.

Max Verstappen has turned Red Bull’s improving performance into victories at two very different circuits.

His first Grand Prix win of 2026 came on October 4 at Sepang, which hosted the Bahrain Grand Prix in Malaysia. Heavy rain delayed the start, and Verstappen initially lost the lead to both Mercedes drivers.

However, he fought back after the first Safety Car, overtook Antonelli for the lead and eventually finished 2.307 seconds ahead.

The unusual conditions made it difficult to establish precisely how much faster Red Bull had become. Singapore provided a clearer indication.

Starting from pole position, Verstappen held off Charles Leclerc into the opening corner and controlled the race from there.

He finished 7.335 seconds ahead of the Ferrari driver, securing his first victory at Marina Bay.

Winning in both changing conditions at Sepang and a more conventional race in Singapore suggests Red Bull’s progress is not limited to one particular scenario.

Austin is also a circuit where Verstappen has an excellent record. He has won four of the last five United States Grands Prix held at Circuit of The Americas, taking victories in 2021, 2022, 2023 and 2025.

Last year’s result was particularly convincing, as he finished 7.959 seconds ahead of Lando Norris.

That history is encouraging, although Formula 1‘s major technical regulation changes for 2026 mean previous seasons cannot be treated as a direct indication of current performance.

Mercedes remain a serious threat. Antonelli has already won eight Grands Prix this season, while Ferrari showed enough speed in Singapore to challenge near the front.

Leclerc finished second, and both Ferrari drivers were competitive throughout the weekend.

Race strategy could also become important at Austin. Tyre management, pit-stop timing and the ability to maintain pace in traffic may determine the outcome if the leading teams remain closely matched.

At 2.20, Verstappen would need to win more than 45.5% of the time for this bet to be profitable in the long run. That is a demanding threshold against several competitive rivals.

Nevertheless, Red Bull’s recent race pace makes Verstappen a credible outright contender.

His consecutive victories provide the strongest argument for another win, with his history at Austin adding further support.

Kimi Antonelli has been remarkably consistent throughout the 2026 season, making a podium finish an appealing alternative to backing him for another victory.

The Mercedes driver has reached the top three in 14 of the opening 17 Grands Prix, including eight wins. He has also finished on the podium in four of his last five races.

That recent sequence includes victories at Monza and Madrid, second place in Malaysia and third in Singapore.

His only result outside the top three came in Azerbaijan, where a qualifying accident left him starting 16th before recovering to fifth.

Singapore was particularly encouraging given Mercedes’ difficulties with their latest upgrades.

The team ran different car specifications during the weekend, with Antonelli retaining the updated package while Russell returned to an earlier version. Mercedes were still searching for the right setup after the changes failed to deliver the expected improvement in Malaysia.

Antonelli qualified fourth and faced a complicated race.

He initially maintained his position near the front, but a second pit stop during a late Virtual Safety Car period dropped him behind Lando Norris in the battle for third.

As Lewis Hamilton struggled on worn tyres, Antonelli took advantage of the fight ahead, passing Norris before overtaking Hamilton to secure the final podium position.

It was a valuable recovery, particularly because Mercedes did not have the fastest car that weekend.

The main concern heading into Austin is whether the team can extract more performance from its updated package.

Red Bull have improved considerably, while Ferrari and McLaren remain capable of challenging for podium places.

Antonelli is not immune to costly mistakes either. His qualifying accident in Azerbaijan showed how quickly a promising weekend can become a recovery exercise.

However, this selection does not require Mercedes to win the race.

At 1.50, the odds imply a break-even probability of approximately 66.7%. Antonelli’s 14 podiums in 17 Grands Prix provide strong historical support, although that record should not be treated as his guaranteed probability of finishing in the top three at Austin.

His ability to secure podiums even when Mercedes are struggling makes this the most strongly supported selection by season-long results.

Red Bull’s improvement has been particularly noticeable over a single lap.

Verstappen failed to secure pole position in the opening 15 Grands Prix of 2026. He has since qualified fastest at both Sepang and Singapore, ending Mercedes’ previous dominance of the qualifying sessions.

At Sepang, the Dutchman topped Q1, Q2 and Q3, eventually setting a 1:35.130 lap to finish 0.298 seconds ahead of Lewis Hamilton.

Red Bull team-mate Isack Hadjar recorded the third-fastest time, reinforcing the impression that the car had taken a substantial step forward.

The margins were much tighter in Singapore.

Verstappen secured another pole position, but Charles Leclerc finished just 0.054 seconds behind, with Hamilton third and Antonelli fourth.

Interestingly, Hamilton had been fastest in both Q1 and Q2 before Verstappen produced the decisive lap in Q3. That highlights how little separated the leading teams and why another pole position is far from guaranteed.

Circuit of The Americas presents a different challenge from either Sepang or Marina Bay.

The opening sequence of fast corners rewards a responsive, well-balanced car, while the long back straight and heavy braking zones require a compromise between aerodynamic grip and straight-line performance.

Finding that balance will be essential for a competitive qualifying lap.

Verstappen also qualified fastest at Austin in 2025, although his recent performances carry more weight when assessing Red Bull under the current technical regulations.

The biggest concern is that his rivals will have more time to prepare.

Singapore was a Sprint weekend, leaving teams with only one practice session before competitive running began.

Austin follows the traditional format, giving Mercedes, Ferrari and McLaren three practice sessions to experiment with setups before qualifying.

Mercedes could particularly benefit from the additional running as they continue working to understand their latest upgrades.

Leclerc remains another major threat after narrowly missing pole in Singapore, while Hamilton demonstrated that Ferrari can challenge Red Bull over a single lap.

At 2.75, Verstappen to qualify fastest offers a higher potential return than backing him to win Sunday’s Grand Prix.

However, the outcome will depend on one session in which small differences in tyre preparation, track conditions or driver execution could change the order.

It is also worth recognising that the two Verstappen selections are closely related.

Both depend on Red Bull maintaining its recent competitiveness, so they should not be treated as independent betting opportunities.

Back-to-back pole positions provide a strong argument for Verstappen, but the narrow margins in Singapore make this the higher-risk selection.