Formula 1 Azerbaijan Grand Prix Predictions (26-09-2026)

Formula 1 heads to Baku for Round 15 of the 2026 season, with the Azerbaijan Grand Prix scheduled for Saturday, September 26.

The Baku City Circuit measures 6.003 km and the race covers 51 laps, giving a total distance of 306.049 km.

Mercedes arrives in Azerbaijan after another successful stretch. Kimi Antonelli followed victory at Monza with his eighth win of the season in Madrid, while George Russell has also won twice in 2026.

The team has taken 10 of the opening 14 Grands Prix.

Three markets stand out before the Baku weekend: Mercedes in the Winning Constructor market at 1.72, Max Verstappen to finish on the podium at 3.05 and George Russell to finish in the top three at 1.67.

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Mercedes has won 10 of the first 14 Grands Prix of the season. Antonelli accounts for eight of those victories, while Russell won in Australia and Austria. The only other race-winning teams so far have been Ferrari and McLaren.

Recent results give little reason to move away from Mercedes before Baku. Antonelli and Russell delivered a one-two at Monza, despite Antonelli starting only 19th after an engine-related grid penalty.

One week later, Antonelli won again in Madrid.

The Spanish Grand Prix result does need some context. The timing of a Virtual Safety Car worked in Antonelli’s favour, and the Mercedes driver admitted afterwards that Lando Norris had probably deserved the win.

However, that should not obscure Antonelli’s underlying pace. He qualified just 0.011 seconds behind Norris for second on the grid.

There is also encouraging Baku evidence for both Mercedes drivers. Russell finished third in 2024 and second in 2025, while Antonelli took fourth on his first Azerbaijan Grand Prix appearance last season.

The appeal of this market is straightforward: there is no need to choose between Antonelli and Russell. A victory for either Mercedes driver is enough.

That extra coverage matters at Baku, where a street-circuit mistake, Safety Car or strategy call can quickly change the order between team-mates.

Mercedes has two genuine winning options and has already converted that strength into victories in more than two-thirds of the races this season.

Formula 1 Calendar and Circuit Overview 2026 Recommended

Red Bull has not produced a race-winning car so far in 2026, but Verstappen’s recent results make the podium market much more appealing than backing him for outright victory.

Since Austria, Verstappen has finished second in Austria, retired at Silverstone, taken third in Belgium, second in Hungary, retired again in the Netherlands, finished third at Monza and taken second in Madrid.

That leaves a striking pattern: across the last seven Grands Prix, Verstappen has reached the chequered flag five times and finished on the podium on every one of those occasions.

Baku has also been one of his stronger venues in recent years. Verstappen won the Azerbaijan Grand Prix in 2022, finished second in 2023, took fifth in 2024 and returned to the top step in 2025.

Three of his last four Baku starts have therefore ended with a podium, including two victories.

Last year’s performance was particularly convincing. Verstappen started from pole position and won by 14.609 seconds from Russell.

The obvious concern is reliability. Verstappen has already recorded four DNFs this season, including two during the recent run described above.

That risk is a significant reason why the podium price has reached 3.05.

Even so, a podium does not require Red Bull to suddenly become the fastest team. Verstappen only needs to continue converting completed races into top-three finishes at the rate seen over the last two months.

Russell offers the shorter-priced individual option and has a strong statistical case of his own.

Through the first 13 Grands Prix, the Mercedes driver recorded seven podiums: victories in Australia and Austria, second places in China, Barcelona, Great Britain and Italy, plus third in the Netherlands.

Fifth place in Madrid left him with seven podiums from the opening 14 rounds.

His recent Baku record is equally useful. Russell finished third in 2024 before improving to second behind Verstappen last season.

The 2024 podium deserves some context. Sergio Perez and Carlos Sainz were fighting ahead of Russell before colliding on the penultimate lap, promoting the Mercedes into third. Russell himself acknowledged after the race that the team had been fortunate to inherit the podium.

The 2025 result was much stronger evidence. Russell started fifth and finished second, ahead of Carlos Sainz and team-mate Antonelli.

Mercedes is now producing significantly better results than during either of those previous Baku visits.

Ten wins from 14 races give Russell a much stronger platform, while his own seven podium finishes show that Antonelli’s eight victories have not prevented the second Mercedes from regularly reaching the top three.

At 1.67, there is naturally less margin for error than with the Verstappen bet. Baku remains unforgiving, and a single mistake can end a race against the barriers.

However, Russell does not need to beat Antonelli or win the Grand Prix.

Back-to-back Baku podiums, seven top-three finishes this season and Mercedes’ overall performance make George Russell to finish on the podium @ 1.67 a well-supported selection.