Rugby League World Cup 2026 Preview

The Rugby League World Cup kicks off on Thursday 15 October, and it couldn’t start with a bigger match. The two favorites, Australia and New Zealand, go head to head at Allianz Stadium in Sydney, with the winner earning a much easier path to the final.

The Kangaroos are 4/5 to win a 13th title on home soil, with the Kiwis next at 9/4 and a big gap back to Samoa at 10/1. But Australia have lost Nathan Cleary, and New Zealand have picked what looks like their strongest squad in years, so I don’t think Australia will have it all their own way.

There’s a new format to get your head around as well, with only 10 teams this time. I’ll run through how it works, the key dates, what happened four years ago, the full odds and the three bets I like for RLWC 2026.

Here are the key dates and format details:

The men’s tournament has been cut from 16 teams to 10, which gives the format a bit of nuance that needs explaining.

Australia, New Zealand, Fiji and the Cook Islands make up Pool A. They play each other once, and the top two go through to the semis. Easy.

Pool B (England, Samoa and Lebanon) and Pool C (Tonga, Papua New Guinea and France) is why things get a tad murkier. Each team plays the three sides from the other pool, and the top two on a combined table of all six teams make the last four.

In the semis, the Pool A winner plays the second-placed team from the combined table, while the Pool A runner-up gets the table-topper. So in short, whoever wins on Thursday night should top Pool A and avoid the best of Samoa, Tonga and England until the final.

The men’s pool stage features 15 matches across Australia, New Zealand and Papua New Guinea. Here is the full fixture schedule, including dates, matchups and venues:

Australia won the 2021 World Cup, which was moved back to late 2022 in England. They edged out New Zealand 16-14 in a brilliant semi-final in Leeds, then beat Samoa 30-10 in the final at Old Trafford.

Samoa were the big story of the tournament. They beat England 27-26 in golden point in the other semi to reach their first ever final, with Jarome Luai, Brian To’o, Stephen Crichton and Junior Paulo all part of their run.

Australia beat England 3-0 in last year’s Ashes, while the Kiwis won the 2025 Pacific Cup without the Kangaroos in it, thumping Samoa 36-14 in the final. Tonga beat New Zealand at the 2024 Pacific Championships, so the gap between the Kiwis and the best Pacific nations isn’t as big as the odds make it look.

Australia have won 12 of the 16 men’s World Cups, including nine of the last 10. The only exception was New Zealand in 2008, when they beat the Kangaroos 34-20 in the final at Suncorp Stadium – the same ground that hosts this year’s decider.

The biggest news is the Kangaroos’ No.7. Cleary suffered a compound fracture of his ankle in Penrith’s preliminary final loss to Newcastle and is out of the tournament. Mitchell Moses will partner Cameron Munster in the halves for the opener, with Sam Walker and Tom Dearden also in the squad.

Kevin Walters has gone with Reece Walsh at fullback, leaving James Tedesco on the extended bench. Tom Trbojevic and Latrell Mitchell are both back after missing the Ashes, and captain Isaah Yeo played through a pectoral injury during the NRL finals.

New Zealand have done well out of the eligibility changes, with players no longer forced to choose between the Kiwis and State of Origin. 

Kalyn Ponga makes his Test debut at fullback, and Dane Gagai, who played seven Tests for Australia, lines up in the centres. Jahrome Hughes is back in the Kiwis’ No.7 jersey, but hooker Phoenix Crossland is suspended after being sent off in the preliminary final.

Samoa are without Payne Haas and Terrell May, but they’ve kept Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow, who chose Samoa over an Australian jersey. Spencer Leniu arrives fresh from the Roosters’ grand final win over Newcastle.

Tonga coach Kristian Woolf has left out Daniel Tupou, the country’s all-time leading tryscorer, and Jason Taumalolo is expected to play his last World Cup. England have a new coach in Brian McDermott, who replaced Shaun Wane, and he’s again left out last year’s Man of Steel, Jake Connor.

Lebanon have been hit hardest off the field. Because of the war at home, their squad won’t include any domestic-based players, and Moses, who captained them at the last World Cup, is now wearing green and gold.

The latest winner betting odds show Australia as the clear favourite for the 2026 Rugby League World Cup, followed by New Zealand and Samoa. The table below compares the available fractional and decimal odds for each team:

It’s a tad boring, but I’m tipping Australia to win the 2026 World Cup.

Australia are still stacked even without Cleary. Munster, Harry Grant, Yeo, Walsh, Mitchell and Trbojevic are all proven Test players (Grant won the Golden Boot in 2025). Their pack is just as strong, with Patrick Carrigan, Tino Fa’asuamaleaui, Cameron Murray and Reuben Cotter all in the 17 for the opener.

They’ve also got home advantage the whole way through, and they handled England with plenty to spare in last year’s Ashes. My one concern is the halves. Moses and Munster are a new pairing, with Walters admitting as recently as last week that he wasn’t sure who his No.7 would be. If that combination clicks early, 4/5 will look generous by the semis.

New Zealand are the clear next contenders, and if I weren’t backing Australia, this is where I’d go.

Stacey Jones has a big, experienced pack. James Fisher-Harris, Moses Leota, Joseph Tapine, Isaiah Papali’i and Briton Nikora all played in the Pacific Cup final win over Samoa last year. Hughes and Kodi Nikorima bring plenty of experience in the halves, and Ponga is one of the most dangerous fullbacks in the NRL.

I’m holding off for now, though. If the Kiwis lose on Thursday, they’ll probably have to get past Samoa or Tonga in the semis and then beat Australia anyway. I’d rather see how that game goes before taking 9/4.

Samoa are the best of the rest. 

Tabuai-Fidow, Brian To’o and Stephen Crichton give them plenty of strike out wide, and Luai and Paulo are co-captains. But they’re missing Haas and May in the middle, Luai had a tough season with the Tigers, and they’ve got a trip to Port Moresby to play PNG on 24 October. I can’t see the value at 10/1.

But Tonga aren’t far behind their island rivals. 

Woolf has a huge pack led by Taumalolo and Addin Fonua-Blake, and Dallin Watene-Zelezniak has switched from New Zealand.

They’ve got a tough route to the final. They play England and Samoa in the pool, and even if they top the combined table, they’d need to beat Australia or New Zealand in the semis and the other one in the final. If you like Tonga, 11/4 (3.75) to reach the final is the better bet at online bookmakers than 14/1 to win it.

I don’t want England at 16/1, and I’ll explain why further down.

Papua New Guinea are 300/1, but they could have a big say in who makes the semis. Jason Demetriou’s side play their first two games at home in Port Moresby, against Lebanon and Samoa, and the crowd there is worth a few points to them.

Fiji have been drawn alongside Australia and New Zealand, and I can’t see them finishing in the top two. Captain Apisai Koroisau is 33, and the squad isn’t as strong as the ones that reached the semis in 2008, 2013 and 2017.

France, the Cook Islands and Lebanon are making up the numbers. The Cook Islands lost 92-10 to Tonga at the last World Cup, and they’ve got Australia and New Zealand in their pool this time.

The 2026 tournament rugby betting landscape is shaped by Australia’s strong historical record, the small group of nations that have won the men’s World Cup, and the previous success of favourites at Suncorp Stadium.

• Australia own this tournament – they’ve won 12 of the 16 men’s World Cups, including nine of the last 10
• It’s a small club of winners – only Australia, Great Britain and New Zealand have ever lifted the trophy
• Suncorp has suited both favorites – New Zealand won the 2008 final there, and Australia beat England 6-0 at the same ground in the 2017 final

With Australia winning nine of the last 10, I wouldn’t go chasing long shots in the outright market. Side markets like top tryscorer and to reach the final are where I’d look for value.

Here are my Rugby League World Cup 2026 predictions:

Australia have the deepest squad, home advantage and a record of winning nine of the last 10 World Cups.

Trbojevic is named on the wing for the opener, and Australia have pool games against Fiji and the Cook Islands, who are 500/1 and 1000/1 to win the tournament. He should get a few tries in those two games, and if Australia make the final, he could play five games.

England were swept 3-0 by Australia in the Ashes, have changed coach since, and would almost certainly need to beat both Australia and New Zealand to win the tournament.

Rugby League World Cup 2026 predictions focus on the tournament winner, a potential value bet on the top tryscorer and one team that could struggle to challenge for the title.

Australia at 4/5 is my strongest bet of the three, even if the return is small. Even without Cleary, they’ve got the best 17 in the tournament.

Trbojevic carries the most risk. Walters could rest him against Fiji or the Cook Islands, and with Walsh, Latrell Mitchell and Jack Bostock in the same backline, the tries could easily be shared around. It’s a small-stakes bet for me.

England could still make the semis out of that pool, and they’ve got the Dally M Centre of the Year in Herbie Farnworth. I just can’t see them beating Australia and New Zealand back to back.

The outright market will move after Thursday night, so these prices may not last. Have another look at the odds before you bet.