UEFA Nations League Prediction: France vs Italy (02-10-2026)

France host Italy at the Stade de France on October 2 in the third round of UEFA Nations League Group A1.

Zinedine Zidane has started his international coaching career with consecutive 1-0 victories over Turkey and Belgium, while Italy responded to their opening defeat against Belgium by beating Turkey 4-1 in Bursa.

France therefore lead the group with six points, three ahead of the Azzurri.

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France’s first two matches under Zidane have provided a clear indication of how difficult they can be to break down.

Turkey and Belgium were both held scoreless, with Les Bleus winning each game 1-0.

The performance in Brussels was particularly relevant. Zidane made nine changes to the team that started against Turkey, yet France still controlled long periods of the match and allowed very little before Michael Olise scored the winner in the 88th minute.

France will again be without Kylian Mbappé.

The captain returned to Real Madrid after suffering a knee injury against Turkey, removing the team’s leading attacking threat for the remainder of this international window.

Italy arrive with much more attacking momentum after their 4-1 win over Turkey, with Alessandro Bastoni, Davide Frattesi, Michael Kayode and Pio Esposito all scoring.

That result is the clearest concern for the under, particularly after a far less convincing 2-0 defeat to Belgium in Mancini’s first game back.

The visitors have also lost Giacomo Raspadori, who left the national-team camp after undergoing tests on the injury suffered against Turkey. Federico Dimarco had already withdrawn earlier in the window.

Recent head-to-head results provide another warning. The last four meetings between France and Italy have all ended 3-1, including one victory for each side during the 2024/25 UEFA Nations League.

The current circumstances are different, though, with France showing a much more controlled approach under Zidane and playing without Mbappé.

Four of France’s last five internationals and four of Italy’s last five have finished below 3.5 goals.

With France yet to concede under Zidane and both teams missing attacking options, Under 3.5 Goals is the preferred selection.