UFC Fight Night 281 Predictions (19-07-2026)

The UFC returns to Oklahoma City for the first time in nearly a decade, with former middleweight champion Dricus du Plessis taking on former welterweight king Kamaru Usman in the main event of UFC Fight Night 281.

The card also features several intriguing matchups across multiple divisions, including Jared Cannonier against Christian Leroy Duncan and rising prospect Chase Hooper.

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The total looks more appealing than backing du Plessis at relatively short odds.

According to UFC statistics, both fighters tend to go deep into contests, with du Plessis averaging 14:53 per fight and Usman averaging 17:50.

Usman’s recent career supports that trend.

He went the full five rounds in his victory over Joaquin Buckley and also saw the judges against Khamzat Chimaev and Leon Edwards.

His style is built around pressure, clinch work and wrestling control, which often slows the pace of a fight and reduces the chances of an early finish.

Du Plessis undoubtedly carries finishing power, but Usman has rarely been the kind of opponent who collapses quickly.

At these odds, over 4.5 rounds stands out as the stronger option.

Cannonier has built much of his middleweight career around durable, tactical fights.

UFC statistics list his average fight time at 13:54, placing him among the division’s most experienced fighters when it comes to long contests.

Duncan brings knockout power, with ten of his professional wins coming by stoppage, but his two career defeats both came on the scorecards.

That suggests he can be dangerous offensively without necessarily forcing early finishes against higher-level opposition.

The striking numbers are remarkably similar, with Cannonier landing 4.42 significant strikes per minute compared to Duncan’s 4.43.

Given Cannonier’s experience against elite competition, a measured fight that reaches the later rounds looks more likely than an early finish.

Hooper possesses a clear grappling advantage.

UFC statistics credits him with 2.43 takedowns per 15 minutes, while Ramirez absorbs almost four significant strikes per minute and owns a striking defence rate of just 37%.

Despite that edge, Hooper’s path to victory does not necessarily require a quick stoppage.

He has shown different ways to win in recent fights, finishing Clay Guida in the opening round but going the distance against Jim Miller.

That versatility makes the round total particularly attractive.

Hooper could spend long stretches controlling positions on the mat and accumulating points rather than forcing an immediate submission.

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Ko enters the fight with a 13-2 record and some impressive defensive metrics.

He absorbs just 1.42 significant strikes per minute while maintaining 58% striking defence.

Lebosnoyani is the more active striker, landing 4.77 significant strikes per minute with 61% accuracy, but he also absorbs considerably more damage.

Ko’s recent form strengthens his case even further, as he arrives on a six-fight winning streak.

His UFC debut against Oban Elliott showcased a disciplined approach built around pressure, cage control and grappling exchanges.

Lebosnoyani remains a dangerous opponent, but Ko appears to hold advantages in defence, consistency and recent performances.

This pick is based as much on the circumstances as the stylistic matchup.

Melisano accepted the fight on short notice after Veronica Hardy withdrew from the card, giving Barbosa a significant preparation advantage.

Barbosa’s strengths are clear.

UFC statistics credits her with 2.40 takedowns per 15 minutes, a 44% takedown accuracy rate and four submission victories in her professional career.

Her clearest route to victory involves clinch work, grappling and prolonged control on the ground.

There is some risk attached to the selection, especially considering Barbosa has gone the distance in recent outings, including her victory over Melissa Gatto.

Even so, facing a late replacement opponent with previous submission vulnerabilities makes under 2.5 rounds an appealing option.