New Zealand NBL Final Prediction: Southland Sharks vs Wellington Saints (09-08-2026)

Southland Sharks and Wellington Saints meet at ILT Stadium Southland with the 2026 Sal’s NBL championship on the line.

Southland finished the regular season at 16-4, while Wellington went 15-5 before both teams came through the playoffs to reach the Grand Final.

There is little between them in the match-winner market, but the season-long scoring numbers and two previous meetings make the total more appealing.

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Wellington were the highest-scoring team in the league during the regular season, averaging 100.4 points per game.

Their attack is led by 2026 Sal’s NBL MVP Elijah Pepper, who averaged 28.7 points and 3.5 made three-pointers per game.

That production has continued into the closing weeks of the season.

Wellington scored 107 against Tauranga, 107 against Hawke’s Bay, 119 against Southland and 112 against Auckland across four of their last five games.

They have shown repeatedly that they can push a New Zealand NBL game towards 190 points even without needing the opponent to reach triple figures.

Southland were not far behind offensively over the full regular season, averaging 96.4 points per game.

Put the two regular-season scoring averages together and the figure reaches 196.8, more than ten points above the current total.

The two head-to-head meetings provide an even stronger case.

Southland won the first game 104-90 in May, producing 194 points.

Wellington then won 119-94 on July 25, with the teams combining for 213.

The average across those two meetings is 203.5 points, exactly 17 points above the 186.5 line.

The second meeting is particularly relevant because it took place only two weeks before the final.

Wellington reached 119 points against a Southland team that otherwise had one of the stronger defensive records in the competition.

There is still a genuine argument against the over.

Southland have recently been involved in several much lower-scoring games, including totals of 158 against Canterbury, 177 against Tauranga and 165 against Hawke’s Bay.

Sam Timmins gives the Sharks a major defensive presence inside, and a championship game may also encourage longer possessions if the score remains close late.

That recent Southland trend is the main reason not to treat 186.5 as a low line.

Wellington’s own semifinal against Auckland finished at 181 points, so neither team needs to produce an unusually poor offensive performance for the under to stay alive.

The NZ NBL matchup itself, however, has produced a different pattern.

Both regular-season meetings cleared this line, Wellington have the league’s most productive offence, and Southland have already shown they can score efficiently against the Saints by putting up 104 in the first meeting.

With 194 and 213 points in the two previous matchups, over 186.5 total points is supported by more than the teams’ overall scoring averages.

The New Zealand NBL final creates additional uncertainty, but the line still leaves enough room below what these teams have produced against each other this season.