Melbourne Cup 2026 Preview

The 166th Melbourne Cup runs on Tuesday November 3 at Flemington, with up to 24 horses chasing A$10.2 million over 3200m. Jump time is 3pm AEDT, or 4am GMT.

Two horses head the market at 6/1 (7.00). Point Of Law used to race for King Charles III and has only had five starts. Trustyourinstinct is Joseph O’Brien’s leading hope of a third Cup. Only three others are shorter than 12/1 (13.00): Hopewell Rock at 9/1 (10.00), with Defiantly and Shockletz at 10/1 (11.00).

One caveat first. Final acceptances don’t close until Saturday afternoon and the barrier draw comes after that, so this Melbourne Cup 2026 preview is based on the probable 24 as of Friday October 30. I’ll go through last year’s result, the lead-up form and the full market before getting to my three bets.

Sons And Lovers has top weight among the probable runners at 57.5kg. Shockletz is on the 51kg minimum.

Six horses have ballot exemptions from lead-up wins, including Point Of Law through the Geelong Cup and Defiantly through the Prix Kergorlay in France. All others get in on the order of entry, which is why So You Are needed his Bendigo Cup penalty.

Half Yours won it for Tony and Calvin McEvoy. Jamie Melham had him in midfield for most of the race. He took over from Goodie Two Shoes at the furlong pole and won by 2¾ lengths on a soft track.

Melham became the second woman to ride a Cup winner, 10 years after Michelle Payne. She was also the first female jockey to complete the Caulfield and Melbourne Cups double.

Goodie Two Shoes ran second at 40/1 (41.00) for O’Brien. Middle Earth was third and River Of Stars fourth.

Half Yours won’t defend his title. He fell in the home straight of the Caulfield Cup on October 17 (walking away from it, thankfully).

The Caulfield Cup went to Kingswood at 25/1 (26.00) for trainer Gavin Bedggood and jockey John Allen, half a length clear of Saint George. Neither will line up on Tuesday. Kingswood isn’t in the order of entry, and Saint George was ruled out this week. Zahrann, sixth at Caulfield, is 25/1 (26.00) for the Cup.

Four days later, Point Of Law won the Geelong Cup on his Australian debut. He’d been prepared out of quarantine at Werribee and beat Small Fry and Omni Man by half a length. Handicapper David Hegan added 2kg, taking him from 51kg to 53kg.

Hopewell Rock hasn’t raced since August 22, when he lost the Ebor at York by the narrowest of margins. George Boughey could have used the Caulfield Cup as a lead-up. He chose to go to Flemington first-up instead.

So You Are is currently the last horse inside the top 24. His Bendigo Cup win on Wednesday came under 58.5kg and was his fourth in a row for Bjorn Baker and Rachel King. A 1kg penalty to 54kg moved him into 24th spot.

Top online bookies also offer odds of 50/1 (51.00) on Kizlyar and 100/1 (101.00) on Future History, although both are currently outside the top 24.

Nine runners are shorter than 20/1 (21.00). After the top two, the gaps are small all the way down to Middle Earth at 16/1 (17.00), and Saturday’s barrier draw could reshuffle that group.

Trustyourinstinct comes off fourth in the Group 1 Irish St Leger, having won the Group 2 Curragh Cup in Ireland before that. James McDonald, who won the 2021 Cup on Verry Elleegant, has the ride. Kevin Blake, O’Brien’s race planner, says the horse is best on fast ground.

Point Of Law came out of the royal string. Maher’s team bought him after he won the Group 3 Bahrain Trophy over 2615m at Newmarket in July, beating Galiyan by half a length for John and Thady Gosden. Tuesday will be his sixth start, and Maher described him this week as “very young, very raw.”

Hopewell Rock races for Wathnan Racing. Before the Ebor he won a valuable handicap at Glorious Goodwood, holding off Small Fry by three-quarters of a length. Boughey says he’s on a beautiful weight at 54.5kg, and Zac Lloyd, who partnered Moonfall to a Royal Ascot win for the stable in June, is booked.

Defiantly led the early market. A win in the Group 2 Prix Kergorlay over 3000m at Deauville in August secured his spot, and the TAB had him at 7/1 (8.00) on October 5. He’s 10/1 (11.00) with Ladbrokes now.

Shockletz is the second Maher horse in the top five of the betting. The New Zealand-bred won the Archer Stakes for his exemption, and Harry Coffey rides at the minimum.

Two wins this spring have Juja Kibo at 14/1 (15.00) – the Metropolitan in Sydney and the Moonee Valley Gold Cup. Sam Clipperton, who’s back from retirement, has the ride.

James J Braddock is O’Brien’s third runner in the top six of the market. Craig Williams rides him at 53.5kg.

Of last year’s field, Middle Earth is the horse I’d take most seriously after Goodie Two Shoes. He ran third and is 16/1 (17.00) with Mark Zahra aboard. Vauban, sixth 12 months ago, is out at 50/1 (51.00) alongside Knight’s Choice, the 2024 winner for John Symons and Sheila Laxon.

So You Are’s four-race streak has him at 20/1 (21.00), which is fair for a horse who only moved into the top 24 on Thursday.

Ryan Moore rides top weight Sons And Lovers, priced at 20/1 (21.00) with horse racing bookmakers, while Christophe Lemaire takes the ride on Japanese contender Stinger Glass at 25/1 (26.00).

Past results, returning contenders, and recent form offer useful clues ahead of this year’s Melbourne Cup. Three trends stand out.

• O’Brien’s Cup record – he won with Rekindling in 2017 and Twilight Payment in 2020, then ran second with Goodie Two Shoes last year
• Last year’s placegetters return – Goodie Two Shoes and Middle Earth are both in the expected line-up
• The Small Fry form line – Hopewell Rock beat him by three-quarters of a length at Goodwood, and Point Of Law beat him by half a length at Geelong

That last line isn’t perfect, since the weights and tracks were different. What it does suggest is that Point Of Law’s Geelong win and Hopewell Rock’s Goodwood win are worth roughly the same, and only one of them went on to run second in an Ebor.

Here are my three Melbourne Cup 2026 predictions: my pick to win, a value bet at longer odds, and a favorite I think is worth avoiding.

I’m tipping Trustyourinstinct. A Curragh Cup win followed by fourth in an Irish St Leger is strong form to bring into a handicap, and McDonald rarely ends up on the wrong horse on the big days.

O’Brien has won this race twice and nearly got a third last year.

A wet track could undo all of this. Flemington was soft for last year’s Cup, and a repeat would cool me on him a lot.

Goodie Two Shoes was the best of the internationals last year. She led with 300m to go from barrier 20, and only Half Yours got past her.

She’s won the Group 2 Lillie Langtry at Glorious Goodwood since. She’s on 55kg this time, 3.5kg more than in 2025, and I think that weight rise explains most of the 25/1 (26.00). She’s already proven she can handle two miles at Flemington, and I’d have her closer to 14/1 (15.00).

I won’t be backing Point Of Law at 6/1 (7.00), even though he may turn out to be the most talented horse in the race.

He’s had five starts, and his trainer calls him raw. Ethan Brown said he was keen on the way to the gates at Geelong, too. The Geelong Cup itself was a half-length win over two horses who are 200/1 (201.00) for Tuesday and well outside the top 24.

Here’s a quick comparison of my top Melbourne Cup 2026 picks, their betting odds, and the main factors that could influence their chances.

If Tuesday is dry, I’m confident in Trustyourinstinct. A soft track would have me trimming that bet and favoring Goodie Two Shoes, who handled the soft last year.

Hegan’s own comments are a fair warning on Point Of Law. He said he could only rate the horse on what he’s done so far, and there may be a lot more to come.

I’d hold off until the barriers are out on Saturday night. Prices often swing on the draw alone, and Tuesday’s track rating will be the last piece of the puzzle for Trustyourinstinct.