EuroLeague Prediction: Zalgiris Kaunas vs Anadolu Efes (16-10-2026)

Zalgiris Kaunas return to Zalgirio Arena on October 16 looking to respond to a heavy defeat at Fenerbahce, while Anadolu Efes arrive in Lithuania after a difficult opening stretch of their own.

The match-winner market makes Zalgiris a clear favourite, but the more interesting price can be found in the player props.

Carsen Edwards has quickly become the main scoring option in the Kaunas backcourt, and his current workload makes a 16.5-point line look beatable.

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Carsen Edwards is averaging 17.4 points in 23.4 minutes per game through his first five EuroLeague appearances for Zalgiris.

The headline average is already above this line, but his role since the opening round makes the case considerably stronger.

Nigel Williams-Goss played 25 minutes in the opener against Crvena Zvezda before suffering a hamstring injury and has not appeared in the EuroLeague since.

Zalgiris initially announced that he would miss approximately two weeks, and he was still absent for Monday’s game against Fenerbahce.

During those four games without Williams-Goss, Carsen Edwards has scored 16, 19, 19 and 20 points, averaging 18.5 per game.

He has therefore cleared 16.5 in three of four, with the only miss coming by half a point against Olympiacos.

The shot volume is just as important as the scoring results.

Over that four-game stretch, Carsen Edwards attempted 61 field goals, an average of 15.3 per game, including 29 three-pointers.

Against Paris alone he put up 22 shots, while he took 13 in each of the games against Olympiacos, Barcelona and Fenerbahce.

That kind of usage gives him several routes to reach 17 points even without an exceptional shooting night.

His most recent performances have been especially encouraging. Carsen Edwards scored 19 points in the 88-81 win at Barcelona before producing 20 in only 21 minutes against Fenerbahce.

He shot 4-of-8 from three in both games, continuing a strong start from the perimeter.

Anadolu Efes have not provided an intimidating defensive matchup either.

Through five EuroLeague games, opponents are averaging 88.0 points against them and shooting 47.4% from the field.

Bayern then scored 101 against Efes in their latest European game, adding another poor defensive result before the trip to Kaunas.

There is naturally some risk if Williams-Goss returns and immediately takes back a significant share of the ball-handling duties.

Even so, Carsen Edwards has already established himself as Zalgiris’ leading scorer, and his willingness to shoot is unlikely to disappear in an important home game.

At 1.85, Carsen Edwards Over 16.5 Points offers an attractive combination of current scoring form, consistent shot volume and an expanded offensive role.