EuroLeague Prediction: Valencia Basket vs Bayern Munich (12-11-2026)

Valencia Basket return to Roig Arena on Thursday, November 12, sitting third in the EuroLeague with a 7-3 record. Bayern Munich arrive in 17th place at 3-7, and the gap between them is particularly noticeable at the defensive end.

Valencia have averaged 95.1 points through ten rounds, while Bayern are conceding 94.5. Crucially for the handicap, all three of Valencia’s EuroLeague home victories have come by at least eight points.

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In a matchup with a strong home favourite, the spread offers a different angle from the short outright win price, although it also demands a convincing margin.

Valencia have beaten Baskonia 111-88, Hapoel Tel Aviv 93-82 and Fenerbahce 86-78 at home in the EuroLeague.

Each result would have covered the -7.5 handicap. Their 84-73 victory away to Olimpia Milano in Round 10 also showed they can create separation without reaching their usual scoring average.

The hosts hold a noticeable rebounding advantage, averaging 39.6 boards per game compared with Bayern’s 31.5.

Alongside the scoring threat posed by TJ Shorts and Armoni Brooks, that could help Valencia generate enough possessions to build a lead rather than simply protect a narrow one.

Bayern have struggled to contain opponents. They conceded 103 points in a 30-point defeat at Crvena Zvezda and 107 in a home loss to Dubai Basketball.

Their away record is a respectable 3-3, but all three road defeats have been by at least eight points.

There are reasons not to treat the handicap as automatic. Bayern won 99-95 away to ASVEL in Round 10, and Valencia’s frontcourt has been short-handed.

Nikola Mirotić has been recovering from an adductor injury, while Nate Reuvers has been sidelined with a foot problem. Their availability for Thursday remains uncertain.

Even with those concerns, Valencia’s scoring record and Bayern’s defensive numbers favour the hosts to pull clear.

An eight-point margin is realistic, provided Valencia maintain their usual offensive rhythm.