UFC Fight Night Predictions: Moicano vs Nolan (31-10-2026)

UFC returns to Meta APEX in Las Vegas on Saturday, October 31, with Renato Moicano facing Tom Nolan in a five-round lightweight main event.

The Brazilian arrives after submitting Chris Duncan in April, while Nolan has won five consecutive fights since losing his UFC debut.

The Australian will be competing in his first five-round UFC bout against an opponent with considerably more experience at the highest level.

The co-main event features Randy Brown against unbeaten welterweight Jacobe Smith, who has finished all four of his UFC opponents and accepted the matchup on short notice.

The preliminary card begins at 5 PM ET, followed by the main card at 8 PM ET.

Two selections stand out for these UFC Fight Night predictions: Renato Moicano to win at 1.83 and Over 1.5 Rounds in Brown vs Smith at 2.10.

Odds recorded on October 27, 2026, and may change before fight night.

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Renato Moicano returned to winning ways in April, submitting Chris Duncan with a rear-naked choke at 3:14 of the second round.

It was the Brazilian’s 11th submission victory, with all 11 coming by the same technique.

Moicano has considerable experience against established lightweights, having faced Islam Makhachev, Beneil Dariush and Rafael Fiziev.

Although he lost to Makhachev and Dariush in 2025, his victories over Jalin Turner and Benoît Saint Denis the previous year demonstrated his ability to compete against dangerous contenders.

Tom Nolan arrives with an 11-1 professional record and five consecutive victories since losing his UFC debut to Nikolas Motta.

The Australian most recently defeated Farès Ziam by unanimous decision in June, having previously submitted Charlie Campbell and stopped Victor Martinez by technical knockout.

Nolan is four inches taller than Moicano and averages 4.84 significant strikes landed per minute, compared with the Brazilian’s 4.10.

He also holds a brown belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu, making him a threat beyond striking exchanges.

However, Moicano has the stronger record of controlling experienced opponents on the ground. The Brazilian averages 1.68 takedowns per 15 minutes, while Nolan’s UFC takedown defence stands at 58%.

Although that figure comes from a relatively small sample, it suggests opportunities for Moicano to establish control and threaten submissions.

Nolan’s striking remains the biggest concern. Moicano has been stopped several times during his career, and the younger Australian could punish him if the fight stays standing.

Nolan is also preparing for his first five-round UFC contest, adding uncertainty over how he will manage his pace.

At 1.83, the moneyline implies a probability of approximately 54.6%.

Renato Moicano to Win is the preferred main-event prediction.

His experience against higher-level opposition and ability to exploit grappling exchanges provide a convincing route to victory, although Nolan’s striking makes this a competitive matchup.

Jacobe Smith enters UFC Fight Night with a perfect 13-0 professional record, having finished all four of his UFC opponents inside the distance.

Three of those victories came in the first round, including his latest win against Bruce Whitehead on October 3, which lasted just 1:32.

The only UFC opponent to take Smith beyond the 1.5-round line was Niko Price, who was submitted at 4:03 of the second round.

Those results make Over 1.5 Rounds a risky selection, but Randy Brown presents a different physical challenge.

The 36-year-old Jamaican has competed in the UFC since 2016 and holds a 20-8 professional record. At 6 feet 3 inches, he is five inches taller than Smith and has a six-inch reach advantage.

If Brown can establish his jab and maintain distance, Smith may struggle to close the gap and land the combinations that have produced several of his early finishes.

Brown also has a UFC takedown defence rate of approximately 75%. However, Smith is an accomplished wrestler averaging 7.92 takedowns per 15 minutes.

That figure comes from only four relatively short UFC fights, so it should be interpreted cautiously.

Smith accepted the matchup on short notice after competing earlier in October, although that does not necessarily indicate preparation problems.

Brown’s recent form is another concern. He was knocked out by Gabriel Bonfim in November 2025 before losing a unanimous decision to Kevin Holland in April.

Against an aggressive finisher like Smith, another early stoppage remains a realistic possibility.

Nevertheless, Over 1.5 Rounds @2.10 offers an alternative to backing either fighter outright.

Brown’s reach, experience and defensive wrestling provide a plausible route to surviving the opening exchanges and extending the contest beyond seven minutes and thirty seconds.

At 2.10, the implied probability is approximately 47.6%.

Smith’s finishing record makes this the riskier of the two UFC Fight Night predictions, but Brown’s physical advantages offer a reasonable argument for a longer fight.