UFC 333 Predictions: Volkanovski vs Evloev (24-10-2026)

UFC 333 takes place at Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi on Saturday, October 24, with two championship fights headlining the event.

Alexander Volkanovski defends his featherweight title against undefeated contender Movsar Evloev in the main event, while bantamweight champion Petr Yan meets Merab Dvalishvili for the third time in the co-main event.

Volkanovski enters after consecutive victories over Diego Lopes, but Evloev presents a very different challenge. The Russian has won all 20 of his professional fights, including ten UFC appearances, and now gets his first opportunity to compete for the title.

Yan and Dvalishvili also have unfinished business. Their previous meetings produced one victory each, making the trilogy one of the biggest attractions on the card.

The early prelims begin at 10 AM ET, followed by the prelims at 12 PM ET and the main card at 2 PM ET.

Three betting selections stand out from the available odds: Evloev to win the main event at 1.90, Alexander Volkov to defeat Rizvan Kuniev at 1.80, and Losene Keita to beat Aaron Pico at 1.95.

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Alexander Volkanovski enters UFC 333 after two consecutive victories over Diego Lopes. The Australian reclaimed the vacant featherweight championship in April 2025 before successfully defending it against the same opponent on January 31, 2026.

At 38, Volkanovski remains one of the most technically accomplished fighters in the UFC. His distance management, combination striking and experience in championship bouts have allowed him to remain competitive against the division’s leading contenders.

The statistics support his advantage on the feet.

Volkanovski lands an average of 5.99 significant strikes per minute compared with Evloev’s 3.91. He also defends 69% of takedown attempts, making him particularly difficult to control on the ground.

Evloev, however, offers a different type of challenge from Lopes.

The 32-year-old Russian holds a perfect 20-0 professional record, including ten UFC victories.

None of those ten wins came by stoppage, but his opposition includes Arnold Allen, Diego Lopes, Aljamain Sterling and Lerone Murphy.

His most recent performance against Murphy in March provides an important reference point.

Evloev spent the opening two rounds primarily striking before turning increasingly towards wrestling. Across the final three rounds, he completed nine of ten takedown attempts.

That figure is impressive, although the control time tells a more complicated story.

Despite securing nine takedowns, Evloev accumulated only 3:54 of control over the full 25 minutes. He eventually won by majority decision after receiving a point deduction for an illegal strike.

Against Volkanovski, securing takedowns without maintaining position could prove even less effective. The champion is skilled at returning to his feet, avoiding prolonged grappling exchanges and immediately resuming his striking offence.

The matchup therefore depends on more than Evloev’s ability to put Volkanovski on the canvas.

The Russian uses takedown threats to disrupt striking exchanges, forces opponents towards the fence and switches between wrestling and striking as the fight develops. Even unsuccessful attempts can limit an opponent’s attacking opportunities and make it harder to establish a consistent rhythm.

Over five rounds, that approach could gradually reduce Volkanovski’s effectiveness at range.

Evloev also brings the conditioning required to maintain his style throughout a championship fight. His willingness to wrestle repeatedly, even late in a contest, makes him particularly dangerous in close rounds.

The greatest concern is Volkanovski’s defensive experience.

The Australian has faced elite wrestlers before and remains considerably more accomplished as a striker. If he consistently prevents Evloev from establishing control, his cleaner combinations and higher output could be enough to retain the title.

Evloev nevertheless has a credible route to winning three rounds through cage pressure, repeated takedown attempts and timely wrestling exchanges.

Movsar Evloev to win at 1.90 is the preferred main-event selection. His persistent wrestling pressure gives him a realistic path to taking the championship, although Volkanovski’s striking advantage makes this a closely contested matchup.

A decision victory appears Evloev’s most likely route to the title, but the moneyline selection covers any method of victory.

Alexander Volkov has won six of his last seven fights, with his only defeat during that stretch coming through a controversial split decision against Ciryl Gane.

His two most recent victories are particularly relevant.

In October 2025, Volkov defeated Jailton Almeida by split decision before securing a unanimous decision victory over Waldo Cortes Acosta in May.

Those results have strengthened his position among the leading heavyweight contenders.

Volkov enters UFC 333 with a 40-11 professional record and considerably more experience against elite opposition than Rizvan Kuniev.

The physical differences are also significant.

At 6ft 7in with an 80-inch reach, Volkov holds a three-inch height advantage and a four-inch reach advantage over Kuniev.

He uses straight punches, body kicks and leg kicks to maintain distance, relying on timing and positioning rather than constant forward pressure. Opponents often have to take risks simply to get close enough to establish their own offence.

Kuniev, however, should not be underestimated.

The 34-year-old lost his UFC debut against Curtis Blaydes by split decision before recording consecutive victories over Jailton Almeida and Tyrell Fortune.

His unanimous decision win against Almeida in February demonstrated that he could compete with an established heavyweight grappler. In July, Kuniev followed that performance by stopping Fortune with strikes in the third round.

Kuniev is physically strong, comfortable fighting at close range and capable of combining striking with clinch pressure. His wrestling also gives him a potential route to neutralising Volkov’s reach advantage.

That threat deserves particular attention because of Volkov’s previous performance against Almeida.

Despite winning the fight, Volkov conceded seven takedowns from nine attempts and spent 10:47 under Almeida’s control.

The result demonstrated his ability to survive difficult grappling exchanges, but it also exposed a weakness Kuniev could attempt to exploit.

If Kuniev repeatedly forces Volkov against the fence and establishes top position, the experienced heavyweight may struggle to build enough offence to win rounds.

There is an important distinction between Kuniev and Almeida, though.

Almeida is a specialist grappler who builds much of his offence around takedowns and ground control. Kuniev has a more balanced approach and is comfortable exchanging strikes.

That willingness to compete on the feet could work against him.

Volkov is the more accomplished long-range striker, with a wider attacking arsenal and considerably more experience against championship-level opposition.

His ability to control distance should allow him to land consistently while making Kuniev work harder to close the gap.

The key question is whether Kuniev can sustain enough wrestling pressure to prevent Volkov from establishing that rhythm.

If the fight develops into prolonged clinch and ground exchanges, Kuniev becomes a serious threat. If most of the contest takes place at striking range, Volkov should have the advantage.

Alexander Volkov to win at 1.80 is the second UFC 333 selection. His reach, technical striking and experience make him the preferred side, although Kuniev’s wrestling presents a genuine risk.

Aaron Pico’s UFC debut ended in a devastating first-round knockout defeat to Lerone Murphy in August 2025.

Murphy caught the American with a spinning elbow late in the opening round, exposing the risks associated with Pico’s aggressive approach to striking exchanges.

Pico responded well in April, earning a unanimous decision victory over former Bellator champion Patricio Pitbull.

That performance showed a more disciplined approach. The American mixed his striking with wrestling, avoided unnecessary exchanges and controlled enough of the contest to secure the decision.

His background makes him a dangerous opponent for almost anyone in the featherweight division.

Pico has an elite wrestling foundation and has recorded nine knockouts among his 14 professional victories. He can threaten opponents on the feet while also changing levels and establishing control on the ground.

Losene Keita, however, presents a particularly difficult striking matchup.

The Belgian enters with a 17-2 professional record, including 11 knockout victories. After suffering a split decision defeat to Nathaniel Wood in March, he responded with an impressive first-round knockout of Muhammad Naimov in Paris on September 5.

That performance highlighted the speed and finishing ability that helped establish Keita’s reputation before joining the UFC.

Keita is a dangerous counterpuncher who moves quickly in and out of range. He can punish opponents who commit too heavily to their attacks, particularly when they leave openings while moving forward.

Those qualities are relevant against Pico.

The American has the tools to control this matchup with disciplined wrestling, but his tendency to engage in aggressive striking exchanges creates opportunities for a fast and accurate opponent.

Keita does not necessarily need to outwork Pico throughout the entire fight. His timing and knockout power mean that even brief exchanges could produce decisive moments.

The biggest obstacle is Pico’s wrestling.

If the American can consistently force takedowns and maintain control, Keita may struggle to establish his own striking game.

The Belgian has not yet faced a wrestler of Pico’s calibre inside the UFC, leaving questions about how effectively he can defend against sustained grappling pressure.

There is also a relatively short turnaround to consider.

Pico was originally scheduled to face Arnold Allen before the matchup changed. Keita accepted the assignment after Allen’s withdrawal and will compete just seven weeks after his knockout victory over Naimov.

That schedule may become a disadvantage if Pico turns the fight into a physically demanding wrestling contest.

Still, Keita has the tools to exploit Pico’s defensive weaknesses.

The American’s improved discipline against Pitbull was encouraging, but it remains uncertain whether he can consistently avoid dangerous striking exchanges against an opponent with Keita’s speed and precision.

If Keita can keep enough of the contest standing, his counterpunching should give him opportunities to hurt Pico or build an advantage on the scorecards.

Losene Keita to win at 1.95 is the third UFC 333 prediction. The selection carries considerable wrestling risk, but Keita’s striking presents a realistic route to victory against an opponent who has previously been vulnerable during aggressive exchanges.