UFC Fight Night Predictions: Buckley vs Malott (17-10-2026)

UFC returns to Rogers Place in Edmonton, Canada, on Saturday, October 17, with Joaquin Buckley facing Mike Malott in a five-round welterweight main event.

Buckley enters after consecutive defeats to Kamaru Usman and Sean Brady, while Malott is looking to extend a four-fight winning streak that includes a stoppage victory over Gilbert Burns.

The prelims begin at 5 PM ET, followed by the main card at 8 PM ET. Erin Blanchfield and Jasmine Jasudavicius meet in the women’s flyweight co-main event.

Three betting opportunities stand out from the card.

Buckley offers an underdog option at 2.05, Tanner Boser vs Jhonata Diniz brings an early-finish angle at 1.71, and Kyle Daukaus is favoured to defeat Marc-Andre Barriault at 1.50.

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Joaquin Buckley’s recent defeats have exposed a clear weakness, but the opponents responsible for those losses are important when assessing his chances against Mike Malott.

After moving to welterweight, Buckley won six consecutive fights, including stoppages against Stephen Thompson and Colby Covington.

His momentum ended against Kamaru Usman in June 2025 before another unanimous decision defeat to Sean Brady in May.

Both opponents exploited his wrestling defence.

Brady was particularly dominant, recording 12 minutes and nine seconds of control time while limiting Buckley to just five significant strikes across three rounds.

Malott has the grappling skills to attack that weakness. Six of his 14 professional victories have come by submission, and he averages 1.63 successful takedowns per 15 minutes in the UFC.

However, the Canadian is not the same type of wrestler as Usman or Brady.

His offence relies on combining striking with submission threats rather than maintaining extended periods of control on the ground. That distinction could give Buckley more opportunities to establish his own attacking game.

Malott has also become increasingly effective on the feet.

In April, he stopped former title challenger Gilbert Burns by TKO at 2:08 of the third round. The Canadian defended all seven of Burns’ takedown attempts, kept the fight standing and gradually took control through his striking.

That victory extended his winning streak to four, following a unanimous decision against Kevin Holland and earlier wins over Charles Radtke and Trevin Giles.

His UFC statistics reflect that progress. Malott lands 4.02 significant strikes per minute compared with Buckley’s 3.62, while his striking accuracy stands at approximately 48% against the American’s 36%.

Buckley nevertheless presents a different challenge.

Despite being shorter than Malott, he holds a three-inch reach advantage at 76 inches to 73. More importantly, 15 of his 21 professional victories have come by knockout.

The American is particularly dangerous when closing distance quickly and forcing exchanges.

His stoppages against Thompson and Covington demonstrated that he can produce fight-changing moments against experienced welterweights.

Malott’s cleaner striking and more varied offence make him a deserved favourite. Yet spending extended periods trading punches with Buckley carries considerable risk, even for a fighter who has shown clear technical improvement.

The five-round format adds another consideration.

Malott remained effective into the third round against Burns, but that result alone does not establish how he would perform over the full 25 minutes against an aggressive opponent.

For Buckley, the priority is avoiding prolonged defensive wrestling sequences.

If Malott can repeatedly secure takedowns and maintain control, the American could find himself dealing with the same problems that cost him his last two fights.

The matchup becomes far more competitive if those attempts are less effective.

Buckley has the reach, punching power and experience to threaten Malott throughout a predominantly striking contest.

His recent setbacks came against two accomplished wrestlers, and the Canadian has not demonstrated the same sustained control on the ground.

Joaquin Buckley to win at 2.05 is the preferred main-event selection.

Malott enters in better form, but the stylistic differences provide a reasonable case for the underdog, particularly if Buckley can keep the fight standing for extended periods.

Tanner Boser and Jhonata Diniz enter their heavyweight matchup with recent results that make the round-total market particularly interesting.

Boser returned to the UFC in April after more than two years away from the promotion. His comeback ended with Gokhan Saricam stopping him by TKO at 4:43 of the second round.

During his time outside the UFC, the Canadian defeated Vinicius Moreira at UAE Warriors in June 2025. That contest ended by third-round stoppage at 1:55, also falling inside the 2.5-round line.

His two preceding UFC appearances produced contrasting outcomes.

Boser defeated Aleksa Camur by unanimous decision in August 2023, having been stopped by Ion Cutelaba at 2:05 of the opening round four months earlier.

Three of Boser’s last four professional fights have therefore ended before the midway point of round three.

Diniz has shown a similar pattern in the UFC.

The Brazilian knocked out Austen Lane at 2:12 of the second round in his promotional debut before defeating Karl Williams by unanimous decision.

His first UFC loss came against Marcin Tybura in November 2024, when the doctor stopped the contest following the second round.

After another decision victory over Alvin Hines, Diniz suffered a second-round TKO defeat to Mario Pinto last October.

Three of his five UFC appearances have finished inside 2.5 rounds.

A former professional kickboxer, Diniz has recorded seven knockouts among his nine MMA victories. Six came in the opening round, although most of those finishes were achieved before he started facing established UFC opposition.

His physical advantages could also be important against Boser.

The Brazilian is taller and holds a four-inch reach advantage, allowing him to attack from a distance the Canadian must work to overcome.

Boser tends to maintain a higher striking output, averaging 4.82 significant strikes per minute compared with Diniz’s 3.89. That activity could help him apply pressure, but advancing into range also creates opportunities for counters.

Neither fighter has recorded a successful takedown in the UFC. Their usual approaches suggest that most of the contest will take place standing, where both possess the power to secure a stoppage.

There is still a clear risk in backing an early finish.

Diniz has already demonstrated that he can fight a controlled three-round contest, defeating Williams and Hines on the scorecards. Boser also has considerable experience in fights that reach a decision.

A cautious opening could therefore make the selection more difficult, particularly if Diniz focuses on maintaining distance rather than pursuing a knockout.

Even so, the recent finishing patterns and the expected striking exchanges make Under 2.5 rounds at 1.71 the preferred choice.

Diniz has the power and reach to punish aggressive entries, while Boser’s pressure could create opportunities if the Brazilian struggles defensively.

The selection does not require picking which heavyweight will capitalise first.

Kyle Daukaus suffered a setback against Bo Nickal in June, but his previous two UFC performances demonstrated why he remains a difficult opponent for middleweights who struggle with grappling.

The American returned to the promotion last August with a 43-second knockout of Michel Pereira. Three months later, he submitted Gerald Meerschaert with a D’Arce choke just 50 seconds into the opening round.

Nickal ended Daukaus’ six-fight winning streak by TKO late in the first round, exposing defensive vulnerabilities that have troubled him throughout his UFC career.

Marc-Andre Barriault will look to exploit those issues, although his own recent form has been disappointing.

The Canadian has won just once in his last six appearances. His only victory during that stretch came against Bruno Silva in May 2025, when he secured a first-round knockout. Barriault subsequently lost decisions to Shara Magomedov and Michal Oleksiejczuk.

Despite those results, his striking output remains considerable.

Barriault lands an average of 5.65 significant strikes per minute but also absorbs 5.94.

His aggressive approach frequently produces damaging exchanges, which could be dangerous against an opponent with Daukaus’ defensive record.

The American has been stopped by strikes several times, and his significant-strike defence stands at just 42%. Allowing Barriault to dictate a sustained striking contest would give the Canadian opportunities to exploit those weaknesses.

The matchup looks different once grappling enters the picture.

Twelve of Daukaus’ 17 professional victories have come by submission.

His ability to attack chokes from different positions gives him an important advantage against an opponent who is far more comfortable exchanging strikes.

Getting the fight to the mat, however, will not necessarily be straightforward.

Daukaus averages 1.97 successful takedowns per 15 minutes in the UFC, but has completed only nine of his 43 attempts.

Barriault also maintains a 68% takedown defence rate, making prolonged wrestling control far from guaranteed.

Still, Daukaus does not need to dominate every grappling exchange to create danger.

A successful transition or brief positional advantage can be enough to threaten a submission, as demonstrated by his quick finish against Meerschaert.

Barriault’s best chance is to defend the initial takedown attempts, maintain pressure and force Daukaus into prolonged striking exchanges.

His work rate makes that a realistic approach, especially given the American’s defensive shortcomings.

The concern is whether the Canadian can consistently keep the fight in his preferred area.

His recent performances offer limited reassurance, while Daukaus has shown that he can capitalise quickly when opponents make mistakes.

Kyle Daukaus to win at 1.50 is the shortest-priced selection of the three.

His submission ability provides a clear technical advantage, although Barriault’s striking pressure makes this a more competitive matchup than a straightforward favourite selection.