La Liga Prediction: Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid (20-09-2026)

Atletico Madrid host Real Madrid at the Metropolitano on September 20, with just two points separating the city rivals after six La Liga matches.

Diego Simeone’s side have recovered from a difficult start to September with consecutive league victories, while Real Madrid arrive after a narrow win over Elche.

Atletico can move above their neighbours with another home derby victory.

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Atletico enter the derby with their strongest domestic form of the season.

They beat Real Sociedad 3-0 away from home before dismantling Osasuna 4-0 at the Metropolitano on Wednesday, scoring seven goals without conceding across those two matches.

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Their home record provides another reason to oppose a Real Madrid victory.

Simeone’s side are unbeaten in their three home league fixtures this season, beating Málaga 2-0 and Osasuna 4-0 either side of a 2-2 draw with Villarreal.

More importantly, Real Madrid have won just once in their last seven league visits to Atletico.

Last September’s derby ended in a remarkable 5-2 victory for the hosts, while the previous meeting at the Metropolitano finished 1-1.

Real Madrid remain dangerous, having won five of their opening six league matches, but their recent performances have been less convincing away from the Bernabéu.

Mourinho’s side lost 1-0 to Real Betis before narrowly escaping another setback against Elche.

Real Madrid surrendered a 2-0 lead in that match and needed a stoppage-time winner from Carlos Espí to secure a 3-2 victory.

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There are reasons for caution with Atletico as well. Pablo Barrios and Alexander Sørloth are expected to miss the derby, although Julián Álvarez has returned to training and could feature.

Real Madrid also possess considerable attacking quality, with Kylian Mbappé already scoring regularly this season.

The handicap, however, does not require Atletico to win.

Their recent defensive improvement, strong home record against Real Madrid and the visitors’ difficulties controlling matches away from home provide enough support for Atletico Madrid +0.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.90, which also covers a draw.