UFC Fight Night Predictions: Hernandez vs Rodrigues (22-08-2026)

UFC Fight Night 285 takes place at the Golden 1 Center in Sacramento on August 22, with Anthony Hernandez facing Gregory Rodrigues in a five-round middleweight main event.

The headline fight presents a clear clash of styles.

Hernandez does his best work through relentless pressure, clinch exchanges and repeated takedowns, while Rodrigues carries considerably more danger when given space to operate on the feet.

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Hernandez returns after Sean Strickland stopped him in the third round in February, bringing an eight-fight winning streak to an end.

The defeat showed the danger of allowing a skilled striker to dictate extended exchanges, but Hernandez still possesses a difficult combination of pace, pressure and wrestling at middleweight.

His UFC numbers illustrate how consistently that pressure creates grappling opportunities.

Hernandez averages 5.88 successful takedowns per 15 minutes with 48% accuracy and records 1.6 submission attempts over the same period.

Roman Dolidze experienced that approach first-hand.

Hernandez completed nine takedowns before eventually securing a rear-naked choke at 2:45 of the fourth round, repeatedly forcing Dolidze to defend rather than establish his own offence.

Rodrigues presents a very different threat.

His 75% takedown defence gives him a realistic chance of keeping sections of the fight standing, where he lands 5.53 significant strikes per minute and carries genuine knockout power.

That danger was evident again in his latest appearance, when Brunno Ferreira was stopped just 1:47 into the opening round.

Hernandez therefore has little reason to spend long periods exchanging at range.

Pressing Rodrigues towards the fence, forcing clinch situations and making him repeatedly defend takedowns should limit the opportunities for the Brazilian to settle into his striking.

The five-round format is particularly relevant.

Rodrigues may be able to defend the initial entries, but Hernandez can continue returning to the same areas of the fight and test whether that defence holds up under sustained pressure.

Rodrigues has enough power to punish a mistake at any stage, which keeps this from being a comfortable favourite to back.

Hernandez nevertheless has more ways to dictate the pace and position of the contest, making Anthony Hernandez to Win the main-event pick.

Both fighters return to light heavyweight for this matchup, adding another element to a contest between two physically strong and experienced grapplers.

De Ridder has built much of his career around his submission game, but his recent UFC opposition has forced him into longer fights.

Brendan Allen did not stop him until the end of the fourth round, while Caio Borralho went the full 15 minutes before beating him by unanimous decision.

Dolidze’s last two appearances have also crossed the 2.5-round mark.

Hernandez submitted him at 2:45 of the fourth round, while Christian Leroy Duncan needed all three rounds to secure a decision victory.

An early submission from de Ridder remains the clearest danger.

Dolidze, however, has the physical strength and enough experience in grappling exchanges to make an immediate finish difficult to treat as the most likely outcome.

The bet does not require either fighter to reach the scorecards.

The contest only needs to continue beyond 12 minutes and 30 seconds, a mark both have comfortably surpassed in their recent fights against strong opposition.

At 1.80, Over 2.5 Rounds offers enough value without requiring either fighter to survive the entire 15 minutes.

Mederos brings one of the clearest durability trends on the card.

Each of his four UFC fights has reached the judges, with decision victories over Landon Quinones, Austin Hubbard and Mark Choinski followed by a three-round draw against Chris Padilla.

Jones has also gone the distance more often than he has produced an early finish since returning to the promotion.

He beat Jeremy Stephens by unanimous decision, stopped Bolaji Oki in the second round and then completed another full 15 minutes against Axel Sola.

His style can contribute to that pattern.

Jones averages 3.48 successful takedowns per 15 minutes and regularly mixes wrestling into his striking, giving him opportunities to control position and maintain pressure without relying on a finish.

Mederos has yet to be stopped during his UFC run, while Jones has already shown that he is comfortable building a victory across three rounds.

The fight needs to go beyond 12 minutes and 30 seconds for the selection to land.

Given Mederos’ UFC record and Jones’ recent results, Over 2.5 Rounds @ 1.55 has one of the strongest statistical cases on the card.

Dyer vs Reed points in the opposite direction.

Dyer enters with a 7-1 professional record and has earned five of her seven victories by knockout or TKO.

Three of those finishes came in the opening round, and her UFC debut also ended early when Ravena Oliveira was stopped at 1:17 of the second round.

Reed’s defeat profile makes those numbers particularly relevant. All five of her professional losses have come inside the distance.

Sijara Eubanks stopped her in the first round, while Loma Lookboonmee and Loopy Godinez both won by second-round submission. Denise Gomes also secured a TKO just 30 seconds into round two.

Only one of those five defeats went beyond the 2.5-round mark. Sam Hughes stopped Reed at 3:52 of the third round, meaning four of her five losses would have cashed this particular under.

Dyer’s limited UFC experience remains an important consideration.

One appearance at this level is not enough to assume that her previous finishing rate will automatically continue against stronger opposition.

This matchup still gives that aggression a favourable target.

Reed has been stopped in every professional defeat, while Dyer has consistently shown a willingness to push the pace and search for damage early. Under 2.5 Rounds @ 1.68 is the selection.

Spivac’s wrestling creates the clearest risk to backing Petrino in this matchup.

The Moldovan heavyweight averages 3.82 successful takedowns per 15 minutes and completes 59% of his attempts.

If he can consistently drive Petrino towards the fence and establish top position, the Brazilian could be forced to spend substantial periods defending rather than using his own offence.

Petrino’s 79% takedown defence is therefore the key statistic in the matchup.

It does not guarantee that Spivac will be unable to take him down, but it provides a solid base for limiting the number of prolonged grappling sequences.

The move to heavyweight has also produced positive results for Petrino.

His unbeaten run in the division includes a third-round knockout of Thomas Petersen and a unanimous-decision victory over Steven Asplund earlier this year.

Spivac is at his best when he can close the distance, work against the fence and settle into top control.

Petrino needs to make the first takedown difficult, separate quickly when possible and punish Spivac during the periods when the fight remains standing.

That wrestling threat makes Petrino less secure than the round-total selections above.

However, if his takedown defence holds up well enough to prevent Spivac from controlling long stretches of the fight, his athleticism and striking give him a strong chance of producing the more damaging work.

Vitor Petrino to Win is worth backing despite the clear grappling risk.