2026 French Open Men’s Singles Draw Preview

The 2026 French Open gets underway this Sunday, and with two-time defending champion Carlos Alcaraz out through a wrist injury, the men’s draw looks wide open. Jannik Sinner is the overwhelming favorite riding a 29-match winning streak, while Novak Djokovic chases slam No 25 on the opposite side of the bracket.

Here’s my full quarter-by-quarter breakdown – seeds, dark horses, key first-week matchups and final weekend predictions.

Here’s my quarter-by-quarter breakdown of the Men’s French Open.

In the first quarter, we can highlight:

Seeds

• Jannik Sinner (1)
• Ben Shelton (5)
• Alexander Bublik (9)
• Luciano Darderi (14)
• Frances Tiafoe (19)
• Arthur Rinderknech (22)
• Tallon Griekspoor (29)
• Corentin Moutet (30)

Dark horses

• Stefanos Tsitsipas
• Matteo Berrettini
• Martin Landaluce

Early matches to watch

• Tsitsipas vs Alexandre Muller

The career Grand Slam narrative is what’s on everyone’s mind looking at this quarter. And there doesn’t seem to be a lot stopping its progression. 

Sinner has won 29 straight, dropped just three sets in that stretch, and Roland-Garros is the only major he hasn’t lifted. The memory of last year’s final – where he led Alcaraz by two sets, held three championship points at 5-3 in the fourth, and still lost in five – will be driving him. With Alcaraz out of the tennis tournament entirely, this is the best opportunity Sinner has to make history.

His draw reflects that. French wildcard Clement Tabur first, then Jacob Fearnley or Juan Manuel Cerundolo, then Moutet or the teenage Landaluce, then Darderi or Rinderknech. There’s nothing in those four rounds to seriously test him. He should be fresh and untroubled heading into the quarter-finals.

The intrigue is further down in this quarter. Tsitsipas opens against Muller in a match that could set up a third-round collision with Shelton. The Greek is unseeded but his Paris resume speaks for itself – fourth round or better in six of the last seven editions, including the 2021 final. Muller is winless in six but has given Tsitsipas trouble before, and the home crowd will be all over this one. 

Shelton, the fifth seed, hasn’t won a match since Munich over a month ago. His form is poor, even if his Slam record says he’ll grind through. Bublik is also in the mix, though the Kazakh’s early draw – Jan-Lennard Struff, Denis Shapovalov, then possibly Tiafoe or Hubert Hurkacz – is rough enough that he might not survive to the fourth round. Bublik’s level in Paris is always a coin flip.

I’ve got Shelton reaching the quarters, but that’s where his road ends. Sinner owns a nine-match winning streak in the head-to-head, and a tenth shouldn’t be in doubt.

In the second quarter, we can highlight:

Seeds

• Felix Auger-Aliassime (4)
• Daniil Medvedev (6)
• Flavio Cobolli (10)
• Valentin Vacherot (16)
• Learner Tien (18)
• Cameron Norrie (20)
• Francisco Cerundolo (25)
• Brandon Nakashima (31)

Dark horses

• Alejandro Tabilo
• Gael Monfils

Early matches to watch

• Monfils vs Hugo Gaston
• Auger-Aliassime vs Daniel Altmaier
• Medvedev vs Adam Walton
• Cobolli vs qualifier

Auger-Aliassime heads the quarter, but is 7-6 since February, with four first-round exits at Roland-Garros since 2020, including last year. His opener against Altmaier is a banana peel – the German is a clay tennis court specialist who’s pulled off bigger upsets than this.

Next is Medvedev: six first-round losses in Paris, double bageled on clay by a player outside the top 50 just six weeks ago, followed by Cobolli: 7-5 in openers this season, never been past the third round here. 

Then there’s Vacherot (two career Grand Slam main draw wins), Tien (6-9 lifetime on clay, zero Roland-Garros victories), Norrie (three-match losing streak, 10-8 at this event overall), Cerundolo (6-5 lifetime here with a tendency to self-destruct at critical moments) and Nakashima (losing record on clay for his career).

Nobody inspires confidence. But somebody has to come through.

The player I’d be most wary of from outside the seedings is Tabilo. The Chilean is 22-9 on clay across all levels this year and should get past Kamil Majchrzak comfortably. His likely path from there – Vacherot, Norrie, and then whoever survives from Auger-Aliassime’s section – is entirely navigable.

On the other side, Medvedev is my pick at the chosen online sports bookmaker. He’s been a transformed player the past eight months, and this is the weakest Roland-Garros draw he’s seen in years – no Alcaraz, no Lorenzo Musetti, no Jack Draper, no Holger Rune.

His opener against Walton is the danger match; the Australian likes to come forward and disrupt baseline rhythm. But experience should win out, and from there, his path through Alexei Popyrin, Cerundolo and Cobolli is manageable.

Monfils vs Gaston is a fun one to keep an eye on. Two Frenchmen, both capable of the spectacular, both prone to the inexplicable. It’ll be on Philippe-Chatrier no doubt, and will be a party.

In the third quarter, we can highlight:

Seeds

• Novak Djokovic (3)
• Alex de Minaur (8)
• Andrey Rublev (11)
• Casper Ruud (15)
• Tomas Martin Etcheverry (23)
• Tommy Paul (24)
• Jakub Mensik (26)
• Joao Fonseca (28)

Dark horses

• Alexander Blockx
• Dino Prizmic
• Ignacio Buse

Early matches to watch

• Djokovic vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard
• Rublev vs Buse
• Djokovic vs Fonseca (R3)

This quarter revolves almost entirely around Djokovic’s fitness.

The 24-time Grand Slam champion has played just three tournaments in 2026: the Australian Open final (lost to Alcaraz in four), Indian Wells (lost to Draper in the fourth round), and Rome (beaten by qualifier Prizmic in the first round). A right shoulder injury forced him out of Miami, Monte-Carlo and Madrid. 

Taping was visible on the shoulder during his brief stay in Rome, and Djokovic himself admitted his preparation has been far from ideal. “I don’t recall the last time I had a preparation where I didn’t have any kind of physical issues or health issues coming into the tournament,” he said this week. “There’s always something.”

The draw hasn’t done him any favors, either. Mpetshi Perricard’s booming serve in the first round will give him zero rhythm, and the third round could be either Fonseca or the aforementioned Prizmic – the man who just beat him in Rome. Ruud or Paul could then be waiting in the fourth.

In the upper half, De Minaur and Rublev are on a collision course in the round of 16. De Minaur has just started to find some form, winning three in a row in Hamburg at the time of writing after three consecutive losses.

Rublev has been more impressive – a run to the Barcelona final, then the Rome quarters with wins over Miomir Kecmanovic and Alejandro Davidovich Fokina before running into Sinner. His heavy forehand is a real weapon on clay, and his mentality seems to have settled after that Barcelona run gave him his first final of 2026.

I’m picking Rublev to come through that fourth-round clash against De Minaur. The Russian’s clay form has been better, and he’s historically handled De Minaur well on this surface.

And Djokovic? Look, every logical indicator says this is the year he bows out early. I even tipped it a few months out in my early French Open predictions. Three tournaments all year, a shoulder he won’t discuss publicly, and a brutal draw. 

But he reached the semi-finals of all four Grand Slams in 2025, and those were all largely in similar circumstances to these. He beat Sinner in the Australian Open semis four months ago. The man has still got it, and until he actually fails to show up at a major, I’m not picking against him. He beats Rublev in what should be a routine quarter-final.

In the fourth quarter, we can highlight:

Seeds

• Alexander Zverev (2)
• Taylor Fritz (7)
• Jiri Lehecka (12)
• Karen Khachanov (13)
• Arthur Fils (17)
• Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (21)
• Rafael Jodar (27)
• Ugo Humbert (32)

Dark horses

• Zizou Bergs
• Stan Wawrinka

Early matches to watch

• Fils vs Wawrinka
• Zverev vs Benjamin Bonzi
• Fritz vs Nishesh Basavareddy

The sentimental match of the first round is Fils vs Wawrinka. The Swiss won this title in 2015 and is making his farewell appearance in Paris at 41. He’s well past his peak, and Fils – the 17th seed, 20-5 since mid-February – should win comfortably. But Wawrinka’s one-handed backhand can still conjure magic when the moment demands it, and I’d expect the Swiss to push for at least a set in front of an adoring crowd.

The bigger question is whether Zverev holds seed. A lingering back problem has been an issue for him this clay swing, and he’s historically susceptible to pressure when expectations are high. With Sinner on the other side of the draw, the narrative of a wide-open path to the final only adds weight. 

Bonzi could make his opener uncomfortable. A locked-in Tomas Machac or Bergs in the second round could do serious damage. And if Zverev survives that far, Fils is projected to meet him in the fourth round.

Fils has beaten five top 20 players since mid-February, and with the home crowd behind him, I think he ends Zverev’s decade-long run of making the round of 16 in Paris. The one caveat is his body – Fils retired in Rome – but I believe that was precautionary ahead of Roland-Garros rather than anything serious.

Fritz is a non-factor. One match since Miami – a loss in Geneva – while nursing a knee issue, and his opening stretch of Basavareddy, then potentially Alex Michelsen and Jodar is unforgiving.

Speaking of Jodar, some tennis bookies have him as the fourth-favorite for the title, which is how hyped he is. His talent is undeniable, but he’s also only played in one Grand Slam previously. The step up to best-of-five and the weight of those expectations are significant, so I’m not quite there with him yet.

My pick from the top section is Lehecka. The Czech is 17-9 in 2026, reached the Madrid quarters with wins over Tabilo and Musetti, and his path of Pablo Carreno Busta, Terence Atmane and Davidovich Fokina is workable. He faces Fils in the quarters, and on current form, the Frenchman takes it. I have Fils reaching the semis.

The safe pick is Sinner, and this time I’m taking it.

As much as I’d love the Djokovic fairytale – a 25th Slam at 38, on a dodgy shoulder no less – the reality is that Sinner is playing the best tennis of anyone on the planet right now by a country mile. He’s also got unfinished business at Roland-Garros. 

Those three championship points he let slip against Alcaraz last year will have been eating at him for 12 months. With Alcaraz out of the draw, this is the clearest path to the career Grand Slam that Sinner could possibly have been given.

I’ve got Djokovic making the final on the strength of his Slam pedigree alone. He reached the semis of all four majors in 2025 – that kind of consistency at this level, at his age, is superhuman. But beating Sinner in the final, over five sets, when the Italian has had a far easier path to get there? That’s a step too far. Djokovic’s body won’t allow it.

It might be the predictable pick, but I’m taking Sinner in four.