US Open Predictions 2025 – Men’s singles

The final Grand Slam of the year gets underway on Sunday, August 24, with the best in men’s tennis heading to New York for the US Open. Jannik Sinner is the defending champion and a heavy favorite to win again, if he can overcome rival Carlos Alcaraz. 

Can anyone else in the field prevent this from being a two-horse race? 24-time major champion Novak Djokovic will be eager to add to his tally; young American Ben Shelton has momentum playing at home, while Jack Draper continues to come of age on the big stage.

Read on for our analysis of the top contenders at the 2025 US Open.

• Sinner and Alcaraz have won the last seven Grand Slam titles between them.
• The world No 1 ranking is also on the line at the US Open for Sinner and Alcaraz.
• Of the four majors, the US Open is the most likely to produce an upset winner.
• Third-favorite Djokovic has not played a match since Wimbledon.
• Shelton is the American with the best chance of winning the 2025 US Open.
• Djokovic and Alcaraz have been drawn in the same half of the US Open draw

We’ll cut straight to the chase: Sinner is our prediction to win the 2025 US Open.

The Italian has been nothing short of impressive across what has been an incredibly challenging past two years. Sinner ascended from outside the world’s top 15 to a multi-time Grand Slam champion, and never missed a beat. 

On top of this, he had the turmoil of a failed drug test and subsequent three-month suspension, plus a couple of gut-wrenching losses to Alcaraz.

Absolutely nothing has phased the 24-year-old, so there’s little reason to feel as though his heavy odds of winning in New York are misplaced. Sinner simply hits the ball too hard and too accurately to be threatened by anyone on tour other than Alcaraz at the moment, unless he’s injured. 

When it comes to the match up with Alcaraz, there’s always a legitimate threat there. However, the fast hard courts give him an edge in their head-to-head, taking time away from Alcaraz’s run-around forehand, and allowing Sinner to rush the Spaniard with his pace of shot. It’s what he did on the slick surface at Wimbledon, as well as in Beijing and Miami in 2023.

Yes, Alcaraz has dominated the pair’s head-to-head in the past 12 months, winning five in a row until Sinner got one back in London last month. But this is Sinner’s house now, and we expect he’ll prevail should the two meet in the final as expected.

The Italian has a comfortable draw, avoiding Djokovic in his half with only Draper and Alexander Zverev standing between him and the final. There, he’ll likely face either Djokovic or Alcaraz, both of whom he’ll feel confident against.

Nipping at Sinner’s heels in outright betting is Spanish phenom Alcaraz. As touched on above, the former No 1 and five-time Grand Slam champion is the only legitimate threat to Sinner’s title defense in New York.

This time last year, Alcaraz crashed out of the US Open in the second round, humiliated by the low-ranked Botic van de Zandschulp. However, we don’t expect the same kind of inconsistency this time around. That result came off the back of Alcaraz winning the Channel Double – Roland-Garros and Wimbledon.

This year, Alcaraz lost the Wimbledon final to Sinner. Instead of arriving in New York searching for motivation, the 22-year-old has a very clear goal: get revenge. He’ll know there is zero space for complacency, and will have learnt his lesson from coming into this tournament a little sloppy in 2024.

Of the two main title contenders, Alcaraz is by far the most mercurial. While we know Sinner will almost always deliver excellence, Alcaraz can have off days. However – and this is a big ‘however’ – the Spaniard can also conjure up the kind of tennis genius needed to defeat the current world No 1. He has a knack for doing so on the biggest stage under pressure as well.

On the balance of probability, we expect Sinner to win, not Alcaraz. But a bet each way on Alcaraz wouldn’t be the worst punt, given his high ceiling.

Alcaraz has a slightly more challenging path to the championship match, with Shelton his likely quarter-final opponent, before Djokovic possibly in the semi-finals. Bookmakers aren’t bothered by this, however, with his odds actually shortening slightly following the draw’s release.

Djokovic has developed something of a dark horse persona in the past two years, given his reduced scheduling. The 38-year-old has not been seen on a tennis court since he made the semi-finals of Wimbledon, opting to spend time with family and on the practice court instead of playing any North American events.

Given how he was upset at the US Open this time last year, it’s likely this puts Djokovic in a vulnerable position. While he has a powerful body of work for entering the likes of the Australian Open and Wimbledon with little formal preparation and doing well, the same can’t be said for the US Open. It’s his least consistent slam, with three losses before the quarter-finals in his last five appearances.

Sure, there’s a case to be made for the Serbian coming in relaxed and playing great tennis. At his age, however, preparation is at a premium. Don’t expect much from his side – odds on betting sites of 13.00 are more out of respect for his pedigree as a player.

Moving to fourth-favorite Alexander Zverev, and the odds are quickly lengthening. The German pays a long 19.00 to win his maiden Grand Slam title.

There’s little evidence to support the case for Zverev winning in New York. Yes, he served for the US Open a few years ago, and has had set leads in other Grand Slam finals recently. However, the world No 3 has been patchy in 2025, with a recent health scare the latest concern in Cincinnati.

More importantly, he has proven a consistent inability to perform when it matters most. Zverev holds the title for the best player never to win a major, and the way things are going, it would be no surprise if that’s the biggest title he has when he retires. It would be a brave punter who backed him at these odds.

Zverev does have a relatively favorable draw, with Alex de Minaur and Karen Khachanov the biggest seeds in his quarter. The issues come later in week two, however, where Sinner is a likely semi-final opponent.

Want to dive deeper? Check out our article on Tennis Handicap Betting.

Jack Draper had his major breakthrough at the 2024 US Open, and returns to New York as an outside title chance now.

The Brit has been the third best player in the world for large swaths of the season this year, winning his maiden Grand Slam title and making respectable runs to the last 16 in Melbourne and Paris.

While a Draper firing on all cylinders would be a legitimate contender here if something happened to Alcaraz and Sinner, that’s not who is arriving in New York next week.

Draper has been dealing with an arm injury and has been sidelined since Wimbledon. Given he’d need everything going his way to make a title run here, we can’t back him on such limited preparation.