French Open Dark Horses in 2026

Both the men’s and women’s events at the 2026 French Open are in a unique position this year: there’s a clear favorite, then plenty of questions beyond that. This opens up each perfectly for dark horse betting. If you’re like me and fancy a bit of drama in your tennis, this is the best case scenario.

Read on for my five 2026 French Open dark horses in each of the two singles events that have the potential to make a deep run in Paris this year. 

There’s no denying the fact that Jannik Sinner is a heavy favorite to win the men’s French Open in 2026 – I even tipped him in my outright French Open prediction piece. However, should he fail to complete the career slam, these are the five French Open dark horses who could surprise.

Cerundolo may or may not be seeded at this year’s French Open – he’s No 27 right now in the ATP rankings.

The Argentinian hasn’t exactly got stellar credentials in Paris, with three first-round exits and two round-of-16 finishes over his five appearances. There’s a reason why he’s outside the top 10 betting favorites at all major tennis bookmakers.

However, there’s a real case to be made for the 27-year-old as a dark horse, and it is as follows. Cerundolo is a high-ceiling player. When he’s on, he’s on – that forehand is nigh on unstoppable. That’s exactly why he’s beaten 16 top 10 players, despite never being ranked higher than No 18 himself.

He can’t string together wins consistently over the course of 12 months, but he sure can do it for a week or two.

We’re talking about a guy who has beaten Alexander Zverev and Daniil Medvedev in the past year. That’s all that could be required to make the final of this year’s tournament.

In fact, nine of Cerundolo’s top 10 wins have come in the past two years. And it was just two years ago that he held a 2-1 set lead over Novak Djokovic at the French Open too.

It pains me to once again put my neck out for Tsitsipas, but there’s no denying the Greek’s ability. He’s a former world No 3, past finalist at Roland-Garros, and has been a regular member of the world’s top-10 for most of the last decade.

Yes, he’s crashed wildly out of form the last two years, to the point where he’s no longer in the top 50. Yes, he has major weaknesses in his game that he’s not addressed. And yes, he’s barely been able to string a match together in 2026.

But: look at what he has been able to do this year. He’s beaten Taylor Fritz, Medvedev, Alex de Minaur and Alexander Bublik. That’s four top-10 (or thereabouts) victories. And this week in Madrid, he’s finally won a few matches in a row, making the round of 16.

He then held match points against Casper Ruud – another brilliant clay player who’s made the championship match in Paris previously – but couldn’t convert.

If the Greek can get a few more wins in Rome, and ideally another big scalp, then he’ll head into Roland-Garros as a very dangerous quantity.

I’m not saying Tsitsipas is likely to win the 2026 French Open tennis tournament. But it was just a few years ago that he was a set away from the title in Paris. There are signs, albeit vague ones, that he’s returning to the player that got him into that position.

Darderi has spent his career in the shadow of his higher-ranked compatriots: Sinner, Lorenzo Musetti, even Flavio Cobolli and Matteo Berrettini. But the 24-year-old has sneakily got himself up to No 20 in the ATP rankings, and is an outside chance at putting together a run at the French Open.

He’s got a wicked forehand on him, and moves naturally on the clay. There’s a reason he’s got 10 wins on the surface already in 2026 – something not many others on the ATP Tour can say.

These came mainly in the form of a title in Santiago, as well as a final in Buenos Aires. That Santiago run was actually his fifth trophy on clay tennis surface, with three of those coming last year.

Darderi is mainly slept on because of his record against top players. He’s yet to beat a top-10 player, with just two top-20 wins overall. But just remember, players like Sinner once had poor records against the sport’s elite, and that shifted quickly.

Last year, Fonseca broke all sorts of records during his run to the third round of the French Open. There’s every reason to believe he’ll improve on that performance this year.

The teenager has a positive record against the top 50, winning 27 of his 44 matches so far. He’s claimed a few big scalps as well, beating the likes of Tommy Paul, Andrey Rublev, Karen Khachanov and Tsitsipas in the past 18 months.

His game works great on clay, the surface he grew up playing on in South America. It aids his movement the best, and gives him time to run around on the forehand – but he himself still has more than enough power to hit through the court.

Fonseca’s results in 2026 don’t jump out as particularly compelling. He’s 10-8 with just two quarter-finals in Monte-Carlo and Munich.

However, of the big names he’s faced, he’s been genuinely competitive against them all, pushed Sinner to twin tiebreaks, playing Carlos Alcaraz tough, and taking a set off Zverev and Ben Shelton.

Everyone knows that it’s just a matter of time until Fonseca makes a big Grand Slam run. With the thinner field at the 2026 French Open, this could be his moment to go from dark horse to contender.

If you’re writing about French Open dark horses and don’t mention Rafael Jodar, do you even tennis? The Spanish teen is hot property right now, having stormed his way up to No 34 in the ATP rankings off the back of a title in Marrakech, a semi-final run in Barcelona, and a push to the quarter-finals in Madrid.

The 6’3” sensation has an uncharacteristically strong serve for a Spaniard, and hits with plenty of raw power too. He seems to have an excellent head on his shoulders too, and isn’t fazed by the sudden attention he’s got, as evidenced by his good run in front of a home crowd at the Madrid Masters.

Clay is his favorite surface, and he’s in the form of his life. There’s every chance he’ll even nab a seeding heading into the French Open if he gets a few wins in Rome. Jodar stringing together four or five matches in Paris isn’t entirely out of the question.

The women’s draw is even more wide open. Aryna Sabalenka is the obvious title favorite, but she’s yet to win a Roland-Garros title, while the chasing pack is a mess of inconsistency. That’s a lot of opportunity for a women’s dark horse at the 2026 French Open to make a deep run, and these are the five who could do it.

Svitolina has been knocking on the door of a Slam title for years, and 2026 is shaping up as her best chance yet. The Ukrainian has climbed back into the world’s top 10 off the back of a strong start to the year.

She won Auckland in January, then went on to reach the semi-finals of the Australian Open before making the Dubai final in February.

More importantly, clay is where the 31-year-old does her best work. She went 16-3 on the surface in 2025, including a Madrid semi-final and a Roland-Garros quarter-final, and her career win rate on clay sits at 68% – higher than on either of the other two surfaces.

Her game is built around it: tireless defense, plus the ability to redirect pace and reset rallies that goes a long way on the slower courts.

There’s one concern, though, and that’s fitness. She made a Stuttgart semi a couple of weeks back, but went out in the second round of Madrid to world No 63 Anna Bondar after taking a medical timeout for a foot issue. If that’s nothing serious, she’ll be a real handful in Paris.

When you’re writing about French Open dark horses, it’s impossible to ignore Ostepenko.

The mercurial Latvian famously came out of nowhere to win the 2017 title as an unseeded teenager, taking down Carolina Wozniacki and Timea Bacsinszky on the way to a final upset of Simona Halep.

She’s never repeated that level of performance at a Grand Slam since – but the same brand of fearless, hit-through-anything tennis is still very much her brand.

2026 has been an up-and-down season – she’s 11-11, with a Doha semi-final and a Linz quarter-final her best results. This week she went out in the third round of Madrid to lucky loser Anastasia Potapova, and she’s taken plenty of other bad losses. 

But that’s the thing with Ostapenko: when she’s in the mood, she’s capable of taking out absolutely anyone. She owns a clean 6-0 head-to-head against Iga Swiatek – nobody else with three or more meetings has a perfect record against the four-time French Open champion – and she’s also got wins over Sabalenka and Gauff.

She’s the very definition of a high-variance player, and that’s exactly what you want from a dark horse. Get a friendly first-week draw and a hot start, and Ostapenko could rip through the bottom half of the draw like she did nine years ago.

A few weeks ago, you wouldn’t have found Potapova on a single French Open dark horse list. The 24-year-old was hovering outside the top 50 with not much to show for the year. 

Then she reached the final in Linz earlier this month, taking out Donna Vekic and Lilli Tagger before falling to Mirra Andreeva in three sets.

She then snuck into the Madrid main draw as a lucky loser and turned that into a semi-final appearance, beating Ostapenko in the third round before pulling off the upset of the tournament – a win over world No 2 Rybakina in straight sets in the round of 16.

Suddenly, her ball-striking that’s always been there is finding the lines, and confidence is following. Her career-high is No 21, so this isn’t completely uncharted territory – she knows what it’s like to be inside the top 25 and competing with the best.

Of all the players on this list, Muchova has the strongest dark horse credentials. The Czech is a former Roland-Garros finalist (2023) and has been a top-10 player at her best.

She also brings the most varied game on the WTA Tour to a surface that rewards this. Her slices and drop shots are most effective weapons on clay, and her willingness to come forward separates her from the baseline-bashers.

2026 has been her best season in years. The 29-year-old lifted the WTA 1000 trophy in Doha back in February and followed it up with a maiden semi-final in Miami. Last month she made the Stuttgart final too, beating Gauff for the first time in seven attempts and Svitolina for the first time in four on the way. 

The one big caveat is Muchova’s body. She’s missed huge chunks of 2024 and 2025 with injury, and pulled out of Madrid this week to manage her workload heading into Roland-Garros. Whether that’s a sensible bit of management or a sign of trouble brewing, we’ll find out in Paris.

If she shows up fit, she’s got semi-final potential at the very least.

Noskova is having the kind of season that usually leads to a player breaking through at a Slam. The 21-year-old Czech has been on a steady upward trajectory for two years, and 2026 is the year it’s really clicking.

She’s 15-8 with a semi-final at Indian Wells and a Stuttgart quarter-final, and most recently made the last eight in Madrid after beating Gauff in the round of 16 from a set down.

Beating Gauff on clay is the kind of result that can flip a season. Noskova trailed 0-3 in the deciding tiebreak before winning four of the next five points to take a 5-4 edge, then closed it out a couple of points later. This is all coming from a player that’s beaten Jessica Pegula and Naomi Osaka already.

Noskova’s game also suits clay: clean, flat groundstrokes that hit through the court, paired with the height to generate enough angle to open opponents up. The fact she won the Roland-Garros junior title back in 2021 also says something about her relationship with the surface and the venue. 

Her best run in the senior main draw is just a second round, but with how she’s playing right now, that’s very likely to change.

There are several French Open dark horses opportunities, with players like Francisco Cerundolo, Stefanos Tsitsipas, and Anastasia Potapova standing out. Karolina Muchova, a former finalist, and rising star Linda Noskova are also expected to make deep runs, providing exciting betting prospects outside the top favorites.