NBL Prediction: Sydney Kings vs Adelaide 36ers (11-10-2026)

Sydney Kings and Adelaide 36ers renew their rivalry at Afterpay Arena on October 11 in the first rematch of last season’s NBL Championship Series.

The teams enter Round 4 in very different positions. Defending champions Sydney Kings are the only unbeaten side in the league at 3-0, while Adelaide have slipped to 2-4 after losing three straight.

The talent on both rosters, however, makes this more than a straightforward match-winner spot.

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Sydney’s early-season form makes the first half of the selection easy to understand.

Brian Goorjian’s side opened its NBL title defence with a 111-90 win over Cairns, followed that with a 121-100 victory against Illawarra and then beat Brisbane 93-78.

The Kings are therefore 3-0 and have already produced two games with more than 200 combined points.

Their first three games have averaged almost 198 total points, with Sydney Kings themselves scoring 108.3 per contest.

That offensive ceiling is important with the total set at 185.5, because the Kings have already shown they are capable of doing much of the work required for the over.

Kendric Davis remains central to that attack.

This matchup also carries extra significance after he produced 35 points and 14 assists in the deciding game of last season’s Championship Series against Adelaide.

Sydney Kings won that contest in overtime to claim the title, and the rivalry with Bryce Cotton has only intensified ahead of the rematch.

Adelaide’s record is less impressive, but their offensive personnel makes them useful for this particular bet.

Bryce Cotton remains one of the league’s premier scorers, while Nick Rakocevic gives the 36ers another way to generate points around the basket.

Even during their current losing run, Adelaide scored 91 against Melbourne United and 92 in a 114-92 defeat to Illawarra.

The 36ers have already been involved in several high totals this season.

Their games against Perth and Illawarra finished with 195 and 206 combined points respectively, illustrating how quickly their contests can open up when the opposition pushes the pace.

There is some risk attached to the 185.5 line.

Sydney’s 93-78 win over Brisbane stayed comfortably below it, while Adelaide have also produced slower games against Cairns and New Zealand.

This combination therefore needs more than simply another controlled Kings victory.

The matchup itself offers reasons to expect a different type of game.

Sydney Kings possess the stronger form and have scored at an elite rate through three rounds, while Adelaide arrive needing a response and still have Cotton, Rakocevic and enough offensive quality to contribute rather than relying on the Kings to carry the total alone.

With Sydney unbeaten, home advantage on their side and both rosters carrying substantial scoring potential, Sydney Kings to Win & Over 185.5 Total Points offers an appealing combination of the Kings’ superior form and a high-scoring game script.