Formula 1 Bahrain Grand Prix Predictions (04-10-2026)

Formula 1 returns to Sepang International Circuit from October 2–4, with the Malaysian venue hosting Round 16 of the 2026 season.

The Bahrain Grand Prix was originally due to take place earlier in the year, but the event was postponed because of the situation in the Middle East.

Formula 1 and the FIA later confirmed that the race would be moved to Sepang, bringing Formula 1 back to Malaysia for the first time since 2017.

Sunday’s Grand Prix covers 56 laps of the 5.543 km circuit for a total race distance of 310.398 km. Qualifying starts at 16:00 local time on Saturday, followed by the race at 15:00 on Sunday.

Sepang combines long straights with fast, flowing corners and heavy braking zones. Heat and humidity add another challenge, while sudden rain can quickly change tyre choices and strategy.

That could be relevant again this weekend. The current forecast gives a 50% chance of rain on Friday, 40% on Saturday and 30% on race day, with temperatures reaching around 31–32°C.

Three markets stand out from the September 30 prices.

Mercedes have won 11 of the opening 15 Grands Prix, Max Verstappen has put together a strong run of podium finishes, and Mercedes have also been fastest in qualifying at 11 rounds.

The odds below were available on September 30 and may change before the weekend.

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Mercedes have won 11 of the opening 15 Grands Prix of the 2026 season.

Kimi Antonelli has taken eight victories and George Russell three, while the pair occupy the top two positions in the Drivers’ Championship.

The team also arrives at Sepang with three consecutive wins.

Antonelli won at Monza and Madrid before Russell continued the run in Azerbaijan.

Baku was particularly useful when assessing this market because the two Mercedes drivers had very different weekends.

Russell converted a strong qualifying performance into victory, eventually beating Verstappen by just 0.196 seconds. Antonelli, meanwhile, crashed in Q1, started 16th and recovered to fifth.

The result showed why backing the team rather than an individual driver makes sense at the current prices.

Antonelli is available at 2.35 to win in Sepang and Russell at 4.00. Mercedes are priced at 1.53 in the Winning Constructor market, so either driver finishing first is enough.

There is also more uncertainty than usual this weekend. Formula 1 has not raced at Sepang since 2017, and the current generation of cars has never competed here.

Changing weather could further complicate qualifying position, tyre strategy and the race itself.

Rather than trying to decide which Mercedes driver will handle those variables better, the 1.53 team price covers both.

Red Bull are still searching for their first Grand Prix victory of 2026, which makes Verstappen at 8.50 to win in Sepang a demanding bet.

His recent podium record is much more convincing.

Across the last eight Grands Prix, Verstappen finished second in Austria, retired at Silverstone, took third in Belgium, second in Hungary, retired in the Netherlands, finished third at Monza and then took second in both Madrid and Azerbaijan.

In other words, every race Verstappen has finished during that eight-round stretch has ended with a podium.

Baku was another encouraging weekend for Red Bull. Verstappen finished only 0.196 seconds behind Russell, while Isack Hadjar took third in the other Red Bull.

Verstappen also has previous Formula 1 experience at Sepang.

He won the most recent Malaysian Grand Prix in 2017, although that result is far less important than his current form given how much the cars and regulations have changed since then.

The key point is simpler: Red Bull have not yet shown enough over a full race weekend to make an 8.50 Verstappen victory the preferred angle, but he has repeatedly been competitive enough to finish among the top three.

At 2.25, the podium market asks much less of both Verstappen and the car.

Mercedes’ qualifying record provides a separate reason to back the team on Saturday.

The team has qualified fastest at 11 of the opening 15 Grands Prix. Antonelli accounts for six of those results and Russell five.

Russell delivered the latest one in Azerbaijan.

His Q3 lap of 1:42.526 put him 0.837 seconds ahead of Charles Leclerc in second.

There is no need to add any wider claim to that gap – the result itself shows how strong Mercedes were over one lap in Baku.

Sepang prices Antonelli at 2.80 to qualify fastest and Russell at 3.05. The Mercedes team market is 1.50, meaning either driver can land the bet.

The obvious risk is Saturday’s weather.

There is currently a 40% chance of rain during a day expected to be hot and humid.

On a wet or drying circuit, the timing of a qualifying run and tyre choice can quickly become as important as outright car performance.

That is enough uncertainty to avoid treating 1.50 as a safe price, but Mercedes have consistently produced the strongest qualifying results across the season.

The team market also avoids having to choose between two drivers who have both been regular qualifying contenders.