UFC Fight Night 289 Predictions: Rosas Jr. vs Barcelos (26-09-2026)

UFC Fight Night 289 takes place at Meta APEX in Las Vegas on Saturday, September 26, with Raul Rosas Jr. facing Raoni Barcelos in a five-round bantamweight main event.

At just 21 years old, Rosas Jr. will become the youngest fighter in UFC history to headline an event.

His opponent is a 39-year-old Brazilian who has also won five consecutive fights. Both men are preparing for their first scheduled five-round UFC contest.

The event features 12 fights, with the preliminary card starting at 5 PM ET and the main card at 8 PM ET.

Three betting selections feature in these UFC Fight Night 289 predictions: Raoni Barcelos to win the main event, Ailin Perez to defeat Norma Dumont and over 2.5 rounds in Brady Hiestand vs Rinya Nakamura.

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Odds are based on the September 23, 2026, betting lines and may change before the event.

Raul Rosas Jr. enters his first UFC main event on a five-fight winning streak. His latest victory came against Rob Font in March, when all three judges awarded the Mexican prospect a 30-27 decision.

Rosas Jr. completed 16 of 18 takedown attempts and accumulated more than ten minutes of control time across three rounds. Font struggled to establish his boxing, spending much of the contest defending takedowns or attempting to return to his feet.

The performance highlighted Rosas Jr.’s wrestling ability, but repeating that approach against Barcelos presents a considerably different challenge.

The Brazilian holds a 22-5 professional record and has defeated Cristian Quiñonez, Payton Talbott, Cody Garbrandt, Ricky Simon and Montel Jackson during his current winning streak.

His victory over Talbott was particularly impressive. The previously undefeated American entered UFC 311 as one of the division’s leading prospects, but Barcelos repeatedly took him down and controlled large portions of the fight.

The Brazilian completed eight takedowns and won all three rounds, with the judges scoring the contest 30-27, 30-27 and 30-26.

Barcelos followed that performance with victories over Garbrandt and Simon before defeating Jackson by split decision in April.

The Jackson fight provided another example of his offensive wrestling. Despite facing difficulties during the striking exchanges, Barcelos completed six takedowns and accumulated nearly eight minutes of control time.

His ability to initiate grappling rather than simply defend against it could be particularly important against Rosas Jr., who regularly looks to establish control on the ground.

However, the clearest statistical difference between the two fighters concerns takedown defence.

Barcelos has defended 88% of the takedown attempts made against him throughout his UFC career.

For comparison, Font’s career takedown defence stands at just 37%.

Rosas Jr. therefore faces an opponent with considerably stronger defensive numbers than the fighter he dominated in March.

Barcelos also has the experience to contest positions and work back to his feet rather than accept prolonged periods on his back.

The Brazilian offers more proven striking output as well.

Barcelos averages 4.65 significant strikes landed per minute, compared with 1.34 for Rosas Jr.

Those figures partly reflect their contrasting fighting styles. The Mexican spends much of his time pursuing takedowns and ground control rather than building combinations on the feet.

Nevertheless, extended striking exchanges could favour Barcelos if he can consistently defend the initial wrestling attempts.

The five-round format remains the biggest concern for this selection.

At 39, Barcelos will need to withstand repeated wrestling attempts from a considerably younger opponent.

Rosas Jr. has demonstrated his ability to maintain a demanding grappling pace over three rounds, while his back-taking ability creates a submission threat whenever he secures a favourable position.

The longer the contest continues, the more important Barcelos’ ability to manage that pressure could become.

Still, the Brazilian has already defeated several younger bantamweight contenders during his current winning streak.

His takedown defence, offensive wrestling and striking experience provide different routes to victory against an opponent whose strongest weapon may be difficult to implement consistently.

The 2.40 price makes Barcelos an interesting underdog, particularly if he can prevent Rosas Jr. from establishing the sustained ground control that decided his previous fight.

Norma Dumont and Ailin Perez meet in a women’s bantamweight matchup between the division’s fourth- and fifth-ranked contenders.

Dumont suffered a unanimous-decision defeat against Joselyne Edwards in April, ending a six-fight winning streak that included victories over Germaine de Randamie, Irene Aldana and Ketlen Vieira.

Perez arrives with six consecutive wins of her own. She defeated Macy Chiasson by unanimous decision in February, having previously beaten Karol Rosa, Daria Zhelezniakova and Edwards.

The recent results provide useful context, but the more important factor is how Perez’s wrestling matches up against Dumont’s defensive game.

Perez averages 4.90 successful takedowns per 15 minutes, making wrestling the foundation of her UFC success.

She has completed at least two takedowns in every fight during her current winning streak, consistently using forward pressure to close the distance and create opportunities along the fence.

Her February victory against Chiasson provided another example.

Despite facing an opponent with a considerable height and reach advantage, Perez completed six takedowns and secured a unanimous decision.

The Argentine also relied on her grappling against Karol Rosa in January 2025, completing two takedowns, accumulating more than four minutes of control time and winning 29-28, 29-28 and 30-27.

Both performances demonstrated that Perez can impose her preferred approach against established UFC bantamweights without needing an early stoppage.

Dumont has the defensive skills to make that approach difficult.

She has defended 72% of takedown attempts against her and averages 3.85 significant strikes landed per minute.

Perez lands 2.88 significant strikes per minute, suggesting that Dumont could have opportunities to outscore the Argentine during extended exchanges on the feet.

However, the Brazilian has previously struggled against opponents willing to wrestle repeatedly.

In May 2022, Dumont lost a split decision to Macy Chiasson in a catchweight contest after weighing in half a pound above the non-title featherweight limit.

Chiasson completed six takedowns and accumulated 7:34 of control time. Dumont landed more significant strikes, but the American’s ability to initiate grappling exchanges and maintain advantageous positions helped her secure the result.

That defeat took place more than four years ago and does not establish how Dumont will perform against Perez. It does, however, provide a relevant example of how sustained wrestling pressure can disrupt her striking.

Dumont’s durability is another important consideration.

Her last 11 UFC appearances have reached the judges, making an early stoppage inconsistent with her recent fighting history.

A three-round contest would give Perez time to accumulate takedowns and control without needing to pursue a submission.

Several successful entries, followed by sustained work in top position, could be enough to win two rounds even if Dumont lands the cleaner strikes during some of the standing exchanges.

The Brazilian’s ability to return to her feet remains the biggest obstacle. If Dumont can consistently break away from the clinch and prevent Perez from maintaining control, her striking could carry greater weight on the scorecards.

Perez has nevertheless demonstrated that she can maintain a demanding wrestling approach against experienced opposition.

Her victories over Rosa and Chiasson are particularly relevant to the challenges posed by Dumont.

Her current form and consistent takedown output support the 1.74 selection, with repeated wrestling pressure providing a clear route to victory over three rounds.

Brady Hiestand and Rinya Nakamura return after lengthy periods away from the Octagon, making the fight-duration market an alternative to selecting a winner.

Hiestand last competed in June 2024, when he submitted Garrett Armfield with a rear-naked choke at 1:52 of the third round.

He has not fought since, meaning the Nakamura matchup marks his return after more than two years on the sidelines.

Nakamura’s most recent appearance came in August 2025, when he stopped Nathan Fletcher by TKO after just 62 seconds.

The Japanese fighter landed a damaging body kick before following up with strikes to secure his sixth professional knockout victory.

Despite that quick finish, Nakamura has already demonstrated an ability to compete over the full three-round distance.

Before facing Fletcher, he went to the scorecards in three consecutive UFC appearances.

He defeated Fernie Garcia and Carlos Vera by unanimous decision before suffering his first professional defeat against Muin Gafurov in January 2025.

All three contests lasted the full 15 minutes.

Hiestand’s recent results also provide support for a longer fight.

His last three UFC victories all reached the third round.

He defeated Fernie Garcia by unanimous decision in November 2022, stopped Danaa Batgerel by TKO at 4:21 of round three in April 2023 and submitted Armfield at 1:52 of the final round in June 2024.

Two of those three victories would have covered an over 2.5-round line.

The Armfield result also highlights an important distinction: simply reaching the final round is not enough. A stoppage before the 2:30 mark would still result in a losing bet.

Both fighters have wrestling backgrounds that could play an important role in determining how the contest develops.

Nakamura won the 2017 U23 World Championships in freestyle wrestling at 61 kg, defeating Kazakhstan’s Kuat Amirtayev by technical superiority in the final.

Hiestand averages 4.80 successful takedowns per 15 minutes in the UFC and regularly uses forward pressure to initiate grappling exchanges.

Nakamura has defended every officially recorded UFC takedown attempt against him so far.

His 100% defensive record is notable, although the relatively small sample means it should not be treated as proof that he cannot be taken down.

That combination could produce a competitive battle for position.

Hiestand typically looks to close the distance and move the fight towards the fence or the ground.

Nakamura has the wrestling credentials to resist those attempts and force the American to work harder before establishing control.

If the early rounds involve extended clinch battles and repeated attempts to secure favourable positions, both could spend considerable time wrestling without creating immediate finishing opportunities.

The obvious danger to this selection is Nakamura’s power.

His victory over Fletcher demonstrated how quickly he can end a fight, and Hiestand’s long absence creates uncertainty about how effectively he will handle the Japanese fighter’s striking.

Nakamura has the ability to finish an opponent early, but his previous decision results show that he can also compete effectively when an immediate stoppage is unavailable.

Over 2.5 rounds is supported by the possibility of a competitive grappling contest in which neither fighter establishes a decisive advantage during the opening exchanges.