NBL Prediction: Perth Wildcats vs South East Melbourne Phoenix (19-09-2026)

Perth Wildcats and South East Melbourne Phoenix open their NBL campaigns at RAC Arena on September 19, with the Phoenix beginning a season in which expectations are again firmly at the top end of the league.

Nathan Sobey remains central to those ambitions after producing the best scoring season of his career in NBL.

His individual points market provides the most interesting angle for the opener, although his availability needs to be monitored before tip-off.

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Sobey averaged a career-high 22.5 points per game last season and earned All-NBL First Team selection after becoming the main scoring option in South East Melbourne’s offence.

Perth were one of the NBL‘s better defensive teams, allowing a league-low 87.1 points per game, but that did not stop Sobey producing consistently against them.

Across four meetings last season, including the Seeding Qualifier, he scored 22, 24, 28 and 24 points, clearing this line in three of the four.

His pre-season scoring numbers have been quieter.

Sobey finished with 18 points against Cairns, 10 against Sydney, 14 against Brisbane and 10 against New Zealand, with South East Melbourne spreading minutes and shots across a deeper rotation.

Those games were preparation rather than an indication that his regular-season role has disappeared.

The main concern is fitness. Sobey is officially questionable with a back complaint, and coach Josh King has indicated the Phoenix will consider the wider schedule when deciding whether he plays.

That makes confirmation of his status important before backing the over.

If Sobey is cleared without a meaningful minutes restriction, his NBL scoring role and strong record against Perth make Over 22.5 Points the preferred selection.