Noche UFC Predictions: Silva vs Delgado (12-09-2026)

The UFC returns to Glendale, Arizona, on Saturday, September 12, for the fourth edition of Noche UFC, with Desert Diamond Arena hosting a card headlined by Jean Silva and Jose Miguel Delgado.

Silva enters the main event as the No. 6-ranked featherweight. He was originally scheduled to face former interim champion Yair Rodriguez, but Rodriguez withdrew through injury and Delgado stepped in on short notice for the biggest opportunity of his UFC career.

Among the other main-card fights are Brandon Moreno vs Joseph Morales, an unbeaten featherweight matchup between Tommy McMillen and Marwan Rahiki, Manon Fiorot vs Alexa Grasso and a heavyweight bout between Waldo Cortes Acosta and Curtis Blaydes.

Three fight-duration markets offer the most interesting betting angles on the card based on recent results, finishing records, matchup dynamics and the available prices.

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Ignacio Bahamondes vs Muslim Salikhov

Bahamondes moves up to welterweight after consecutive unanimous-decision losses to Rafael Fiziev and Tofiq Musayev.

The 6’3″ Chilean owns a 17-7 professional record with 11 knockout wins, two submissions and nine first-round finishes.

Those two defeats followed a run of three straight first-round stoppage victories. Bahamondes knocked out Christos Giagos at 3:34, stopped Manuel Torres at 4:02 and then submitted Jalin Turner with a triangle choke after 2:29.

Salikhov’s recent UFC results make the early-finish angle even more interesting. Each of his last three fights ended in the opening round.

He knocked out Song Kenan at 3:49 in November 2024 and Carlos Leal after only 42 seconds in July 2025 before Uroš Medić stopped him at 1:03 in November.

That sequence shows why either fighter can cash this bet.

Salikhov still carries enough power to end a fight with one clean shot, but his most recent loss also showed the danger when an opponent is able to pressure him and land first.

Bahamondes averages 5.99 significant strikes landed per minute in the UFC and has yet to record a successful takedown from nine attempts.

Most of his work therefore takes place in striking exchanges, where his length, output and variety should force Salikhov to defend consistently while still leaving opportunities for the Russian to counter.

The main concern is Bahamondes’ recent durability. Both of his last two fights lasted the full 15 minutes, proving that an early stoppage is far from automatic.

The price still makes the under attractive. Salikhov’s last three UFC bouts lasted only 5:34 combined, while Bahamondes has already shown that he can finish opponents with both strikes and submissions.

At 1.95, the available evidence is strong enough to back the fight to end inside the opening seven and a half minutes.

Tommy McMillen vs Marwan Rahiki

This Noche UFC featherweight matchup brings together two unbeaten fighters with 20 professional victories between them. Nineteen have come inside the distance.

McMillen is 11-0 with five knockout wins, five submissions and nine first-round finishes.

The only fight of his professional career to reach the judges was his 2025 Dana White’s Contender Series bout against David Mgoyan, which he won by majority decision.

His first two UFC appearances have both ended early. McMillen stopped Manolo Zecchini at 3:57 of the opening round before finishing Alberto Montes by TKO at 3:29 of round three in July.

Rahiki enters at 9-0 and has never needed the scorecards as a professional.

Eight of his wins have come by knockout or TKO and the other by submission. Four ended in the first round, another four in the second and one in the fourth.

His UFC debut against Harry Hardwick was stopped by Hardwick’s corner after the second round. Rahiki followed that performance by stopping Ollie Schmid at 2:47 of round one in May.

For this specific market, the key number is 13 first-round finishes across their combined 20 professional wins.

There is enough evidence to justify some caution. Only two of their four combined UFC appearances would have covered an under 1.5-round line, and a fight between two undefeated prospects can become more measured once both realise the opponent poses a genuine finishing threat.

That risk is reflected in the odds. A price of 2.22 corresponds to roughly a 45% break-even probability, so the fight does not need to be expected to end early more often than not for the line to remain attractive.

Neither man has built an unbeaten record through cautious decision fighting. McMillen has finishing routes with both strikes and submissions, while every Rahiki victory has come before the final bell.

At better than 2.20, backing a decisive moment inside the first seven and a half minutes is more appealing than trying to separate two fighters who have yet to lose professionally.

Jean Silva vs Jose Miguel Delgado

The fight-duration market also offers the best angle in the Noche UFC main event.

Silva enters with a 17-3 professional record and has finished 15 of his 17 victories. Twelve have come by knockout or TKO, three by submission, and 10 have ended in the opening round.

His UFC record stands at 6-1. Silva finished each of his first five wins inside the Octagon before suffering his first UFC defeat against Diego Lopes at Noche UFC in 2025, when Lopes stopped him at 4:48 of the second round.

More importantly for this market, Silva’s first six UFC appearances all ended before the 2.5-round mark.

Westin Wilson was stopped in round one, Charles Jourdain in round two, Drew Dober at 1:28 of round three, Melsik Baghdasaryan in the first and Bryce Mitchell in the second, while Lopes finished Silva before the end of round two.

Arnold Allen finally broke that sequence in January, when Silva went to a UFC decision for the first time and earned a unanimous victory over three rounds.

Delgado owns a 12-2 record with 10 finishes, including six knockouts or TKOs and four submissions. Seven of those stoppages came in the first round.

His UFC career also began with two quick finishes. Connor Matthews lasted 2:58, while Hyder Amil was knocked out after only 26 seconds.

The pattern has changed since then. Delgado lost a unanimous decision to Nathaniel Wood before beating Andre Fili by split decision and Austin Bashi by unanimous decision.

Three consecutive trips to the scorecards are the clearest argument against the under.

Silva also showed against Allen that he is capable of fighting with more patience when the matchup demands it, so relying only on career finishing percentages would overstate the case for an early stoppage.

The circumstances are different here, however. Silva is ranked sixth at featherweight and represents the toughest opponent Delgado has faced.

Delgado is also stepping into his first five-round UFC main event on short notice after competing over three rounds throughout his UFC career.

Both men maintain a high striking pace. Silva lands 4.82 significant strikes per minute in the UFC, while Delgado averages 6.07. Silva consistently pressures opponents and forces exchanges, while Delgado has shown little interest in building fights around simply surviving and running down the clock.

Under 2.5 rounds at 1.86 requires the fight to end before the midpoint of round three.

Delgado’s recent decision streak prevents this from being a straightforward finishing-percentage play, but Silva’s UFC history, the jump in opposition and the demands of a short-notice five-round main event provide enough support for an early finish.