UFC Fight Night 287 Predictions (05-09-2026)

UFC returns to Paris on September 5, with UFC Fight Night 287 taking place at Accor Arena.

The 14-fight card is headlined by Dan Hooker against highly rated French newcomer Salahdine Parnasse, who has been handed a five-round main event for his UFC debut.

Parnasse enters the promotion as a heavy betting favourite.

As of September 2, his moneyline was available at around 1.18, while Hooker was priced at approximately 5.00.

At those odds, backing Parnasse outright offers limited appeal.

The fight-duration market provides a more interesting angle in the main event, while Michael Page against Nursulton Ruziboev and Daniil Donchenko against Punahele Soriano also offer betting opportunities worth considering.

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Parnasse arrives at UFC Fight Night 287 with a 23-2 professional record and five consecutive wins by knockout or technical knockout.

Valeriu Mircea and Kenneth Cross were stopped in the opening round, while Wilson Varela, Marian Ziółkowski and Marcin Held all fell in Round 2. None of those five fights crossed the 2.5-round line.

The run is significant for more than the number of finishes.

Parnasse has long been regarded as a well-rounded mixed martial artist, but his recent performances have shown how much more dangerous his striking has become.

Cross was stopped at 4:18 of the first round in May, while experienced grappler Held failed to make it out of the second round in Parnasse’s previous appearance.

Hooker enters the fight after suffering consecutive stoppage defeats, both in Round 2.

Arman Tsarukyan submitted him with an arm-triangle choke at 3:34 of the second round in November 2025, before Benoît Saint Denis stopped him with strikes at 4:45 of Round 2 in January.

The Under 2.5 selection does not depend entirely on another Parnasse finish either.

Hooker owns 11 knockout victories and another seven by submission, so an upset stoppage from the New Zealander would also cash the bet.

The obvious concern is the jump in competition. Parnasse has yet to compete inside the UFC, while Hooker has spent years facing elite lightweight opposition.

Five consecutive early finishes outside the promotion do not guarantee the same outcome against a proven UFC veteran.

However, the line gives both fighters plenty of time. The bout only needs to end before the 2:30 mark of Round 3, rather than requiring an immediate first-round finish.

Parnasse’s recent finishing record, combined with Hooker’s consecutive second-round stoppage defeats, makes Under 2.5 Rounds the strongest betting angle in the main event.

Michael Page has compiled a 4-1 UFC record. His only defeat came by decision against Ian Machado Garry, and he has since responded with three consecutive unanimous-decision wins over Shara Magomedov, Jared Cannonier and Sam Patterson.

Page returns to middleweight for this matchup. He previously defeated both Magomedov and Cannonier at 185 pounds before dropping back to welterweight for the Patterson fight.

Ruziboev makes this a difficult matchup to price as a routine favourite spot for Page. The Uzbek holds a 37-9-2 professional record, with 13 knockout wins and 21 submissions. Twenty-six of his victories have come in the first round.

His UFC record at middleweight is 5-0, with four of those victories coming inside the distance. His only UFC defeat came when he moved down to welterweight to face Joaquin Buckley.

Page’s main advantage is not early finishing power but the difficulty opponents have in establishing consistent offence against him.

His movement, stance switches and unconventional angles make him difficult to pin down, and he absorbs only 1.51 significant strikes per minute in the UFC.

His significant-strike defence stands at 62%, while his takedown defence is 70%.

There is also an interesting physical detail. Ruziboev is two inches taller, but Page owns the longer reach at 79 inches compared with 76.

That should help the Brit operate from his preferred range and force Ruziboev to work harder to close the distance.

The risk is clear. Ruziboev has 34 professional finishes and can threaten both on the feet and on the ground. Page is also a relatively low-volume fighter, which can leave close rounds open to interpretation on the scorecards.

His most recent win over Patterson was another measured, low-output performance rather than a dominant offensive display.

Ruziboev’s best route is likely to deny Page the type of technical striking match he prefers, pressure him towards the fence and create grappling exchanges.

If the majority of the fight remains at range, however, Page’s movement, defensive awareness and ability to control distance should give him the better chance of winning rounds.

The biggest danger to this selection is Donchenko himself.

The 25-year-old Ukrainian owns a 15-2 professional record with 10 knockout victories.

He stopped Rodrigo Sezinando at 4:27 of the opening round and finished Theodor Berggren at 1:35 of Round 2. Both results would have fallen short of the Over 1.5-round line.

Soriano, however, has proved considerably more difficult to put away that early.

The American has suffered four professional defeats. Two went to the judges, while his only two stoppage losses came against Roman Kopylov at 3:19 of Round 2 and Dustin Stoltzfus at 4:10 of the second round.

That means Soriano has never been stopped before the 7:30 mark in 17 professional fights.

His form since moving to welterweight also strengthens the case. Soriano is 4-0 in the division. His victories over Miguel Baeza, Nikolay Veretennikov and Ramiz Brahimaj all went to the scorecards, with a 31-second knockout of Uroš Medić the only exception.

Soriano also has a wrestling base that gives him another way to change the pace of the fight.

UFC statistics credit him with 1.97 takedowns per 15 minutes, while 43% of his significant strikes have been landed on the ground.

That could be valuable against Donchenko, whose most dangerous moments tend to come when he is able to maintain a high striking tempo.

Donchenko has also shown that he can remain effective without forcing an early finish.

He went the full 15 minutes against experienced UFC veteran Alex Morono in February and earned a unanimous decision.

After that performance, Donchenko acknowledged that loading up on his punches and chasing the knockout had cost him too much energy, with patience becoming a greater focus ahead of his next appearance.

This remains the riskiest of the three selections. Donchenko lands 8.07 significant strikes per minute and clearly possesses enough power and volume to hurt Soriano early.

That UFC striking average also comes from a relatively small sample, so it should not be treated like a long-term statistic built over a lengthy UFC career.

The bet does not require Soriano to survive all three rounds. It only needs the fight to reach 2:30 of Round 2.

Considering Soriano has never been stopped before that point in his professional career and has taken three of his four welterweight wins to the judges, Over 1.5 Rounds looks well supported at the current odds.