UFC Fight Night 282 Predictions: Ankalaev vs Guskov (25-07-2026)

The UFC returns to Abu Dhabi for its first event in the city since late 2025, headlined by a light heavyweight clash between former champion Magomed Ankalaev and late replacement Bogdan Guskov.

Originally scheduled to face Khalil Rountree Jr., Ankalaev will now take on the Uzbek contender after Rountree withdrew through injury less than two weeks before the event.

The card at Etihad Arena also features several intriguing matchups, including Steve Erceg against Ramazan Temirov and a heavyweight bout between Valter Walker and Thomas Petersen.

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Backing Ankalaev at 1.18 offers little value, which makes the total rounds market a far more interesting option.

Much of the case for the under comes from Guskov, who stepped in on short notice after preparing for an entirely different opponent.

The Uzbek has built his career around finishing fights, with all 18 of his professional victories coming inside the distance, including 13 first-round stoppages.

There is obvious risk attached to the pick because Ankalaev has shown that he can win slower, tactical fights over the full distance.

However, Guskov’s most realistic route to an upset is an aggressive start and an early finish, while Ankalaev possesses the wrestling and pressure to punish mistakes if the replacement fighter struggles with the jump into his first UFC main event.

Picking a winner in this matchup is difficult. Erceg has already proven himself against strong UFC competition, while Temirov arrives with a 19-3 record and an eleven-fight winning streak.

The biggest question surrounding Temirov is inactivity.

He has not fought since March 2025 following a year-long anti-doping suspension, which makes it difficult to predict what version of him will appear in Abu Dhabi.

The over is supported by the most recent UFC results for both men.

Erceg defeated Tim Elliott by decision in his last outing, while Temirov also went the distance against Charles Johnson in his most recent confirmed UFC appearance.

Rather than trying to guess which fighter gets the nod, the rounds market appears to offer the better angle.

Walker has one of the clearest paths to victory on the entire card. He enters the fight on a four-bout winning streak inside the UFC, with all four victories coming via first-round heel-hook submissions.

That does not automatically mean another early finish is coming.

Petersen showed his resilience in his last appearance, bouncing back from defeat to earn a majority-decision victory over Guilherme Pat.

For that reason, Walker’s moneyline feels safer than chasing a specific method of victory.

His grappling advantage is obvious, but this selection does not rely on him winning by submission for a fifth consecutive fight.

This matchup comes down to proven UFC experience against an undefeated newcomer.

Muhammad Said enters the promotion with a 9-0 record and eight finishes, having stopped former UFC fighter Luis Henrique da Silva in just 63 seconds earlier this year.

Jacoby, meanwhile, has already established himself at this level and arrives in Abu Dhabi after a second-round finish against Julius Walker.

According to the UFC’s official preview, the veteran is chasing his fourth consecutive victory.

Said clearly possesses finishing power, but Jacoby’s experience against higher-level opposition gives him a meaningful edge.

This is not the best pick on the card, but the statistical profile is solid.

Aliev’s first two UFC victories both came by decision, first against Rafael Alves and later against Shem Rock.

Davis also has a history of fighting deep into contests.

He lost a unanimous decision to Farès Ziam in 2025, while his previous UFC finish against Thomas Gifford came only in the closing seconds of the third round.

Neither fighter has consistently shown the type of early finishing style that would make the under attractive.

Given Aliev’s tendency to go the distance and Davis’ durability, over 2.5 rounds looks like a sensible addition to the card.