USA Olympic Medals Predictions: Total Over/Under

After narrowly edging out China in the 2020 Tokyo Olympics medal tally, Team USA will be looking to continue its Olympics dominance with another strong showing in Paris. 

USA have topped the Olympics medal tally in all of the last seven editions. Athletes representing the Star and Stripes have won a total of 2638 summer Olympics medals to date. How will they fare this time around? Here’s our Olympic 2024 medal preview for the United States.

Our prediction is that Team USA will finish their 2024 Olympics campaign with 122 medals – just breaching the 121.5 medal mark which most bookmakers are offering. 

Factors surrounding Russia and Belarus have widely influenced our prediction. The decision to allow Russian and Belarusian athletes to compete independently at the Olympics means they will be able to participate in Paris. However, their recent exclusion from major international events creates a significant hurdle.  

This lack of recent high-level competition will likely put them at a disadvantage compared to athletes who have been consistently competing on the world stage.

We expect this will translate into an extra advantage for teams like the USA and China. The US contingent secured 113 medals in Tokyo. It’s not at all unrealistic to predict 10 more medals to be added to their tally as they benefit from limited Russian and Belarusian competition.

Team USA is poised to excel in several disciplines at the upcoming Olympics. Here’s a look at some sports where American athletes are expected to shine:

• Track and Field: The USA has an impeccable record in Olympic track and field. With 343 medals to their name, the USA is expected to add even more to their tally in Paris. All eyes will be on Noah Lyles as he aims to repeat his dazzling triple gold performance at last year’s World Championships (100m, 200m, and 4x100m relay). The stacked US track and field Olympics team will also include names like Athing Mu, Sha’Carri Richardson, and Ryan Crouser. 
• Women’s Soccer: While the US men’s soccer team is yet to win an international trophy outside the CONCACAF region, their female counterparts have been a glaring exception. USWNT are the most successful team in Olympic history with four gold medals. With the appointment of former Chelsea boss Emma Hayes as the new head coach, Lindsay Horan and company are heavily backed to recover from their recent slump in Paris. 
• Gymnastics: Undisputed and hungry for more, Simone Biles sets her sights on Parisian gold after her awe-inspiring debut at the Tokyo Olympics. Fresh off a dominating performance at the 2023 World Championships, where she claimed the individual all-around title and led the US team to victory, the US star shows no signs of slowing down.
• Basketball: USA can expect double golds in basketball. The women aim to extend their historic reign, seeking their eighth consecutive gold medal. Meanwhile, the men, boasting a star-studded lineup with LeBron James, Steph Curry, and Kevin Durant alongside their elite gymnasts, chase their fifth straight gold.
• Swimming: Katie Ledecky will look to add to her haul as the seven time Olympic gold medalist returns for her fourth Olympic mission. 

Achieving a tally of 122 medals will likely mean the United States top the Olympics medal charts again. This would mean they’ve finished in first place for eight consecutive Summer Games.

The last time another team led the count was in 1992, when the Unified Team, made up of athletes from the former Soviet Union, triumphed in Barcelona.

This Olympic Games prediction is for guidance only and we are not responsible for your bets.