US Presidential Election Betting Odds And Prediction 2024

The upcoming 2024 US presidential election was supposed to pit incumbent President Joe Biden against Donald Trump, who is seeking to return to office. It looked like that would be the case for a while – but everything changed on 21 July when Joe Biden withdrew from the race.

While we thought Joe Biden could win the election and that the odds of 2.80 were very valuable, the change in the election also opened up new betting opportunities.

When Kamala Harris, the current US Vice-President, replaced Joe Biden to face Donald Trump, most people thought that Ms Harris did not have much chance, but time quickly changed opinions.

After a reasonably successful start to the campaign, at some point, Kamala Harris was even the favorite candidate to become the next president. If she were to win the election, she would be the first woman to become US President.

While the Democrats and Ms. Harris are running against the same opponent, Donald Trump, the situation for the Republicans is not the most fun. Much of Mr. Trump’s campaign has been prepared to challenge the incumbent, Joe Biden, emphasizing his age, health, and achievements.

Most of these arguments are no longer relevant when the challenger is Kamala Harris. Let us take a closer look at how this withdrawal of Joe Biden is changing the course of the elections.

We can start immediately by saying that our arguments with Donald Trump remain the same – the legal problems, the riots caused by the election defeat, the scandalous speeches.

We can also add that Mr Trump has often emphasised Mr Biden’s age, which is currently 81, but Mr Trump himself turned 78 in June, which means that he would be even older than Mr Biden when he finishes his term. Obviously, this argument has now backfired on him, because his opponent is only 59.

Everything is clear with Donald Trump – there has been enough time to get to know him, his political views are clear, and we can expect how the country would be governed if elected.

However, this time, we will focus on Kamala Harris because we predict we predict that she will win the election. With the change in the Democratic representative in the elections, we think that Ms Harris has an even better chance of beating Mr Trump.

It is worth taking advantage of this by betting the bookmakers that Kamala Harris will become President.

Here you can see the main arguments why we believe in a Harris victory:

Kamala Harris has much political experience, having served as Vice President under Joe Biden, so she knows what has been done. This was also evident in the debates when she presented criticism of Donald Trump.

It is important to note that Kamala Harris does not mention in her campaign that she is a woman, not white, and is not trying to get a share of the vote the easy way.

The focus is entirely different aspects, which are much more important in the forthcoming elections. At the same time, it shows the strength of the politician.

As the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election approaches, the betting odds for the top candidates, Donald Trump (Republican) and Kamala Harris (Democrat), constantly shift.

In this article, we explore the current odds, what factors influence them, and strategies for betting on election.

Both candidates have seen their odds fluctuate in response to debates, campaign events, and polling data.

Donald Trump has been a strong contender throughout the race. Last week, his odds were listed at 2.0 (+100;1/1), giving him a 50% chance of winning. 

However, after recent developments, Trump’s odds have improved to 1.60 (-167; 0.6/1). It increased his implied probability to 62.5%. 

This slight shift reflects a growing confidence among bettors that he could reclaim the presidency.

Kamala Harris, the Democratic nominee, has also experienced changes in her odds. Last week, she was favored with odds of 1.80 (-125, 0.8/1), representing a 55.56% chance of victory. 

However, after recent debates and shifts in public opinion, her odds have gone down to 2.30 (+130, 1.3/1), putting her at 43.5%. 

Despite this, Harris maintains a narrow lead in national polls, hovering around 48.6% compared to Trump’s 45.8%.

Why Is Harris Gaining Support?

Many bettors saw an opportunity to back Harris when her odds evened out. Politically, though, it doesn’t seem like Tuesday’s debate greatly impacted public opinion. 

Harris has maintained a small but consistent lead over Trump in national polls:

This gap has stayed nearly the same for the past month. Harris is polling at 48.6%, while Trump is at 45.8%. The largest lead for Harris was on August 23, when Robert F. Kennedy Jr. exited the race, having held 4.6% support. 

Since then, Trump seems to have gained 2.2% of Kennedy’s supporters, while Harris gained 1.3%. The rest are undecided or still favoring third-party candidates.

Of course, polls fluctuate slightly, so these shifts aren’t exact. However, the general trend suggests neither candidate will likely see big changes unless something drastic happens before November 5.

National polling data continues to play a major role in shaping betting odds. 

For example, Harris has consistently led Trump by a small margin in the polls, with a gap of around 2-3%. This close contest has kept the odds between the two candidates tight, making the election difficult to predict. 

Additionally, swing states such as Arizona, Georgia, and Pennsylvania will lead in determining the outcome, and bettors will closely monitor their local polling trends.

The odds for the 2024 U.S. presidential election change frequently due to several important factors.

Debates and Appearances

How candidates perform in debates or during public events can greatly impact their odds. A strong debate can boost a candidate’s chances, while a poor showing can hurt them. 

For example, Trump’s odds improved after J.D. Vance’s solid performance in the vice-presidential debate.

Poll Results

Polls are a major influence on betting odds. As candidates’ poll numbers go up or down, so do their odds. 

Kamala Harris currently leads Trump in national polls by a small margin, keeping their odds very close. Swing state polls are especially dominant in these elections.

Swing States

Swing states like Michigan, Georgia, and Wisconsin play a big role in deciding the election. The odds can change based on how candidates perform in these key states, where both parties campaign heavily.

Legal and Political Issues

Any major legal or political developments can quickly impact the odds. For instance, ongoing investigations around Trump haven’t hurt his odds much yet, but any big news could shift the political betting market.

While political betting isn’t allowed in the U.S., international platforms offer many options for wagering on the election. 

Election odds are typically presented in American, fractional, and decimal formats.

American Odds show how much you need to bet to win $100 or how much you’d win with a $100 bet. 

For example, if Trump’s odds are +150, a $100 bet would earn you $150.

Fractional odds are common in the UK, and they are shown as fractions (e.g., 3/2). If you bet $20 on Trump at 3/2 odds, you’d earn $30 in profit.

Decimal Odds are popular in Europe. They show your total return, including your stake. For example, 2.50 odds mean you’d receive $2.50 for every $1 bet.

Betting on the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election can be exciting, but to make smart bets, you need a betting strategy. Here are some simple tips to help you out:

Follow Polls Regularly. Polls can show which candidate is gaining support. Monitor trends in both national and swing state polls, but remember that polls can change quickly, so look for consistent results over time.

Focus on Swing States. Swing states like Arizona, Georgia, and Pennsylvania are leading to winning the election. Tracking candidates’ performance in these states will give you a better idea of who’s leading.

Bet Early for Better Odds. Placing your bets early, before big events like debates or major news, can get you better odds. If you feel confident about a candidate early on, it’s a good time to bet.

Watch Debates and Events. Candidates’ performances in debates or big campaign events can shift public opinion and odds. Pay attention to these moments and adjust your bets if needed.

Stay Updated on News. Legal issues or political scandals can impact how people vote and affect election betting odds. Keeping up with major news will help you react to changes in the market.

Spread Your Bets. Don’t put all your money on one bet. Try betting on outcomes like the overall winner, electoral votes, or swing state results. This spreads your risk and improves your chances.

Track Odds Movement. Election odds change frequently. Monitoring these shifts will help you spot trends and make smarter bets.

The 2024 U.S. Presidential Election is a neck-and-neck race between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, with both holding nearly equal odds at -110. Harris has a slight edge in national polls, leading Trump 48.6% to 45.8%, but the real deciders will be key swing states like Arizona, Georgia, and Pennsylvania. 

For anyone betting on the outcome, watching polls, swing state updates, and debates will help make smart and timely decisions in this unpredictable race.