Kenpom vs Sagarin Rankings: A Comprehensive Comparison for Sports Betting
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Written by
Dalius Mikalauskas -
31 Aug 20245 min. read
Kenpom and Sagarin rankings have become a common sports vernacular. Some sports punters are even using them without knowing exactly what they mean.
These advanced metrics take sports statistics to a whole new level. They allow for a more precise and deeper look at the efficiency and productivity of an athlete or a team.
Bookmakers have realised this and are busy incorporating these math-based benchmarks into their research to determine their point spreads and totals. Baseball gave birth to these metrics. But college basketball swiftly found its proponents.
Once figures on the sports fringe, Sagarin and Kenpom have changed the way punters and sports enthusiasts understand games and place wagers on them. But among punters looking to lay action on sports like NCAA basketball and baseball, which strategy is better? Kenpom or Sagarin?
This comprehensive guide dives deeper into the world of Kenpom and Sagarin rankings, highlighting their weaknesses, strengths, and methodologies. Read further to learn more.
Table of content
How do Kenpom and Sagarin Ratings Work?
These sets of rankings are generated by algorithms or computer formulas. The best part? They can be predictive. This aspect makes them irresistible to many sports punters.
Sagarin doesn’t divulge his techniques. Some individuals believe that his outcomes depend on an international system for ranking and rating chess players.
Known as Kenpom, Pomeroy’s system works on a computer system that weights games mainly on where and when they are played. Also, it weights games on their defensive and offensive efficiencies.
Apart from rankings, these systems provide game totals and point spreads that gamblers can easily compare to what they are getting on their favourite online betting sites.
What makes Kenpom unique is that it places a massive emphasis on the efficiency of a team, incorporating key elements like pace and tempo to assess the productivity of a team on both the defensive and offensive ends.
It isn’t unusual for both Kenpom and Sagarin ratings to agree on what will take place in a game. But they can also diverge massively due to their mathematical framework vagaries. Punters, then can be left with an option: which of these ratings is more accurate?
Sagarin
Jeff Sagarin invented Sagarin rankings. They cover a massive array of sports including NBA, NFL, basketball, and college basketball, among others. Sagarin rankings incorporate a blend of retrospective and predictive elements to assess the strength of a team.
They primarily depend on the record of a team as well as schedule strength and margin of victory to compute ratings.
Sagarin Rankings: The Advantages
Sagarin rankings come with some noticeable benefits that sports punters can enjoy. They include:
Accessibility and Simplicity: They are easy to understand and straightforward. That means both experienced and novice punters can access Sagarin rankings and use them to boost their sports betting experience.
Versatility: Sagarin rankings stretch beyond college basketball and baseball. It covers a massive array of sports, enabling gamblers to utilise consistent ratings across various competitions.
Historical Performance: The Sagarin system considers past performances. That means they’re useful for assessing the long-term trends and consistency of a team.
Sagarin Rankings: Main Cons
Sport-Specific Limitations: Sagarin ratings cover a vast array of sports. However, their application varies across different competitions. This methodology mayn’t be as perfectly tuned for some sports as it’s for college basketball.
Overreliance on Margin of Victory: The Sagarin system heavily emphasises the victory margin. This can be misleading in some situations. Blowout losses or wins mayn’t accurately represent the true weaknesses or strengths of a team. This may potentially result in misjudgements.
Limited Depth in Statistical Assessments: Unlike its Kenpom counterpart, the Sagarin system provides a simpler approach. It depends more on win-loss data. This simplicity may lack the statistical analysis depth that some punters look for to make data-driven decisions.
Kenpom
The Kenpom system is popular and widely respected among fans of college basketball. It utilises advanced statistics analysis to evaluate the performance of a team.
Kenpom ratings take into consideration key factors like defensive and offensive efficiency, game outcomes, the strength of schedule, and pace to determine teams’ rankings.
These rankings are updated on a regular basis. That means they represent the latest outcomes. Also, they incorporate data-driven adjustments.
Kenpom Rankings: The Advantages
Similar to Sagarin, the Kenpom system also has some key benefits, including:
Adjustments for Schedule Strength: The Kenpom system considers the difficulty of the opponents faced. This ensures an accurate team quality representation.
Tempo–Free Statistics: Kenpom mainly focuses on tempo-free statistics. As a result, it provides a fair valuation of the abilities of the teams, regardless of their styles of play.
Comprehensive Metrics: In order to capture multiple aspects of the performance of a team, the Kenpom system utilises different metrics. This provides a holistic view.
Kenpom Rankings: Main Cons
Limited Coverage of Sports: The Kenpom mainly focuses on college basketball. That means it may not help punters who wager on a variety of sports.
Lack of External Factors: This system doesn’t explicitly consider external factors like player suspensions, coaching changes, and injuries.
Subjectivity in Metrics: The Kenpom employs advanced statistics analysis. However, it still relies on assumptions and subjective metric weights. This subjectivity can easily introduce biases and influence the rankings’ accuracy.
Examples of Sagarin and Kenpom Rankings
Let’s use college basketball, where Sagarin offers valuable insights into the performance and strength of a team. Suppose we have two top teams, UConn and Purdue. These teams are set to play against each other in the next college basketball fixture.
To evaluate their latest relative strength, you can refer to the Sagarin College basketball rankings. Based on the rankings, UConn is currently ranked first, while Purdue is ranked second. Depending on the Sagarin system’s calculations, UConn is stronger than Purdue.
Suppose there is a match between 10th ranked NCSU and 20th ranked UK. You can refer to Kenpom Basketball ratings to assess their relative strength. Depending on the Kenpom system’s advanced statistics analysis, the 10th-ranked NCSU is stronger compared to the 20th-ranked UK.
When you look at these examples, they seem to be the same. However, Kenpom ratings provide more comprehensive, data-driven insights. This methodology incorporates advanced accounting and statistical analysis to determine the fixture’s strength.
Sagarin ratings, on the other hand, provide versatility and simplicity across various sports and leagues. That means they’re accessible to a wide range of punters.
Keep in mind that rankings are a valuable tool for any sports bettor. However, they need to be used in conjunction with other analyses and research to make more informed betting decisions.
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