EuroBasket 2025 Prediction: Poland – Iceland (31-08-2025)

Poland started the 2025 European Men’s Basketball Championship with a confident victory over
Slovenia, which includes Luka Dončič in its lineup. The last time these teams met was in the quarterfinals of EuroBasket 2022, where the Poles delivered the biggest surprise of the tournament, defeating the Slovenians 90-87.

Three years later, the Slovenians failed to get their revenge, with Jordan Loyd and Mateusz Ponitka leading Poland to a 105-95 victory over Slovenia. After their victory over Slovenia, the Poles, playing at home, have an excellent opportunity to fight for second place in the group and create good chances for advancing to the quarterfinals.

Having defeated Slovenia, they now have to beat Israel, and second place will be guaranteed in theory. Poland will play Israel on Saturday and Iceland on Sunday. Regardless of the outcome of the match against Israel, Poland will be the clear favorite against Iceland on Sunday.

Iceland is fighting for pride in this championship, and not much is expected of them. In their first match against Israel, they lost 71:83, but in the fourth quarter, they were trailing by 19 points. Iceland relies on two defenders, Elvar Drifriksson and Martin Hermannsson, and also has one high-level center, Tryggvi Hlinason, who played 36 minutes against Israel. It will not be so easy for T. Hlinason against Poland, as the hosts have Aleksander Balcerowski.

Poland showed excellent play in their opening game against Slovenia. Despite losing one of their leaders, Jeremy Sochan, to injury before the championship, they still managed to show their potential. Naturalized Jordan Loyd contributed the most to the victory, scoring 32 points in 27 minutes and hitting 7 of 8 three-pointers.

You can’t expect that kind of performance in every game, but it is much easier for the Poles to play when they know they have a player who can shoot like that. Mateusz Ponitka made an excellent debut in the championship, playing as if he had wings for the national team.

In the first game, he scored 23 points and grabbed seven rebounds. In the 2022 EuroBasket quarterfinals, the forward not only helped the Poles defeat the Slovenians but also recorded a triple-double. There is no doubt that Poland has a much more talented roster than Iceland.

According to basketball betting sites, the home team is the clear favorite in this match., and the 7.5-point The handicap is too low – Poland is capable of winning by at least double digits. Iceland and Poland have met in a friendly match before, and Poland won 92:90.

However, official games are a completely different environment – the hosts will have a different attitude, and as we saw in the game against Slovenia, playing in front of their own. Fans do not put any additional pressure on the Poles.