EuroBasket 2025 Prediction: Italy – Slovenia (07-09-2025)

Slovenia arrived at EuroBasket 2025 without several key players, whose absence made life very difficult for Luka Dončič. The NBA star led the team to the playoffs, but it would be naive to expect anything more.

After defeating Italy, Germany awaits in the quarterfinals, which would be extremely difficult for Dončić to overcome on his own. Looking at the round of 16 against Italy, can the Slovenians pose a serious challenge and defeat the Italians, who have assembled their best lineup in a long time?

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Italy is considered the favorite in the quarterfinals against Slovenia, and for good reason. The Italians did not demonstrate their best play in the group stage, but after losing their first game to Greece, they went on to win four games in a row. They defeated Georgia 78-62, Bosnia and Herzegovina 96-79, Spain 67-63, and crushed Cyprus 89-54. In the group stage, the Italians had problems with their shooting against stronger defenses, but they felt much better on offense when playing against less talented teams.

Considering that the Slovenians win games through offense rather than defense, the Italians should feel pretty comfortable in the round of 16. It’s fair to say that Italy hasn’t shown its best game yet, and Simone Fontecchio’s inconsistent play has contributed greatly to that.

The NBA forward scored 4, 14, 39, 8, and 13 points in the group stage. This talented player can cause big problems for any team, and if he has a better day, the Italians will be the clear favorites here.

S. Fontecchio scored only 8 points in the game against Spain, making 2 out of 11 shots, but that did not prevent the Italians from winning. The roster includes Nicolo Melli, Alessandro Pajola, Darius Thompson, Marco Spissu, and Giampaolo Ricci. Many experienced players who together form a quality team.

In Slovenia, everything rests on L. Dončič’s shoulders, and although he can win games on his own, the Italians have more potential as a team. Slovenia does not have a strong front line, which will make it easier for the Italians to defend, as they themselves do not have strong center forwards.