EuroBasket 2025 Prediction: Germany – Finland (12-09-2025)

The 2025 European Men’s Basketball Championship has reached the semi-final stage – the first match on Friday will be between Germany and Finland, followed by Turkey vs Greece.

Before the tournament, Serbia and Germany were considered the favorites. Serbia is no longer in the championship, so Germany is now considered the leading contender for the gold medals. Interestingly, it was Finland that knocked Serbia out of the tournament, so it will be very interesting to see how the team performs in the semifinals against another favorite.

Germany and Turkey remain the only teams in the tournament that have not lost a single game. The Germans won all five games in the group stage, including a 30-point victory over Finland.

The round of 16 began against Portugal, whom they defeated by 27 points, but after three quarters, they were leading by just one point. In the quarterfinals, they won by a single digit for the first time, defeating Slovenia by 8 points. For the first time, the Germans entered the fourth quarter trailing.

The last two German games showed that they are vulnerable. They had problems with shooting, as neither against Portugal nor against Slovenia did their long-range shots fall at the beginning of the game, and they only managed to break through in the fourth quarter.

Finland is playing much better in the knockout stage than it did in the group stage, so the semi-final is sure to be more intriguing than the Germany vs. Finland match in the group stage.

Germany defeated Finland 91:61 in the group stage. It is usually more difficult to defeat the same team twice, but Finland is a particularly convenient opponent for Germany. Finland had a speed advantage over Serbia and Georgia – in the game against Serbia, a lot of points were scored against Nikola Jokić in the fourth quarter. In defense, the Finns pressed under the basket, forcing both Serbia and Georgia to rely on three-pointers.

If Germany shoots three-pointers like they did against Portugal or Slovenia, there could be problems, but it’s hard to believe that such poor shooting will continue.

Against Slovenia, the Germans ultimately scored nine three-pointers, but most of them came in the fourth quarter. In the group stage, the Germans also made only 9 three-pointers, but that did not prevent them from winning by a 30-point margin. This was largely due to the Finns’ tragic offense – 6 three-pointers out of 31 and only 18 two-pointers out of 47.

Germany managed to beat Slovenia, with Dennis Schroder and Franz Wagner scoring just 11 out of 37 shots. Both players missed several shots from under the basket. It was clearly not their best game. Players of this caliber usually perform better in other games, and that is what we expect in the semifinal against Finland.

Germany lost in the semifinals at last year’s Olympic Games in Paris, even though they were considered clear favorites against the French, whom they had crushed in the group stage.

A year has passed, and the situation remains very similar; likely, the players have not forgotten this – their opponents certainly cannot be underestimated. Finland’s style of play suits the Germans, as they also have five mobile players on the court who find it easy to defend against Finland’s ball movement. All betting options can be found at the best bookmakers.