UFC 328 Predictions (10-05-2026)

UFC 328 brings one of the most anticipated middleweight fights of the year as Khamzat Chimaev faces Sean Strickland in Newark.

The fight card also includes several interesting stylistic matchups where wrestling pressure, pace and defensive efficiency could become the key difference.

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This UFC main event has a very clear stylistic split.

Sean Strickland is usually involved in longer fights, but Khamzat Chimaev changes the dynamic completely.

According to UFC statistics, Chimaev’s average fight time sits slightly above eight minutes, which naturally supports a shorter-fight scenario.

The under here is not based on Strickland being an early finisher.

Instead, it comes from Chimaev consistently forcing fights into high-pressure situations very early.

Strickland also absorbs a relatively high number of significant strikes per minute, which matters against someone with Chimaev’s aggression and pace.

Whether the fight becomes grappling-heavy or stays standing early, this matchup has the ingredients for a finish before the later rounds.

Taira’s grappling numbers stand out immediately in this matchup.

His takedown average per 15 minutes gives him a very clear alternative path compared to simply trading strikes.

That becomes important against Joshua Van, who fights at an extremely high pace and absorbs a large amount of incoming damage.

Van’s pressure can create entertaining fights, but it also opens opportunities for fighters who are comfortable controlling positioning and tempo.

Taira doesn’t necessarily need to win a pure striking battle if he successfully mixes in takedowns and cage control.

At first glance the striking numbers may favour Van, but stylistically this still feels like a good spot for Taira.

UFC Heavyweight fights are always unpredictable, but Volkov still looks like the more stable side here.

Statistically, he absorbs fewer significant strikes per minute and generally fights with more structure than Cortes-Acosta.

That matters in heavyweight MMA, where avoiding unnecessary exchanges often becomes the difference between winning rounds and turning the fight into chaos.

Volkov usually looks far more comfortable in slower heavyweight fights.

Sean Brady’s wrestling profile gives him one of the stronger statistical edges on this UFC card.

His takedown activity remains consistently high, while his defensive numbers are also excellent.

That combination allows him not only to create grappling exchanges, but also to avoid losing control if the fight becomes messy.

Buckley’s athleticism and striking make him dangerous in open exchanges, but Brady’s ability to dictate where the fight takes place gives him several ways to win rounds.

Over time, that style usually becomes difficult to deal with across a full fight.

This is probably one of the trickier fights on the card from a betting perspective, but stylistically it still has a path toward a longer fight.

Both fighters are experienced veterans who have spent years competing against high-level opposition.

At this point in their careers, pacing and shot selection often become more important than reckless pressure from the opening minute.

Jeremy Stephens still carries knockout power, but he’s no longer fighting at the same nonstop pace he once did earlier in his career.

King Green, meanwhile, usually prefers a more technical rhythm and often relies on movement and counter striking instead of forcing exchanges immediately.

That combination creates a realistic scenario where both fighters spend time reading each other before fully committing offensively.

The total itself is also relatively low for two experienced UFC fighters, so if the fight avoids an early momentum swing, the over becomes live fairly quickly.

Amosov’s defensive numbers are extremely solid for this level.

He absorbs very little damage compared to Alvarez, and that creates a cleaner path for a controlled performance rather than relying on risky exchanges.

His short listed UFC average fight time also points to a fighter who can take control quickly, but the safer angle here is still the moneyline rather than guessing the method.

Alvarez remains dangerous offensively, but defensively the numbers favour Amosov more consistently heading into this matchup.