EuroBasket 2025 Winner Prediction

On September 4, the group stage of EuroBasket 2025 ended, with defending champions Spain among the teams that failed to advance. This is the first time in the history of the European Men’s Basketball Championship that the champions have failed to qualify for the playoffs. Along with Spain, Estonia, the Czech Republic, Montenegro, Great Britain, Cyprus, Belgium, and Iceland also ended their run after the group stage.

In the round of 16, Groups A and B will face Groups C and D, and in the quarterfinals, the teams will begin to mix. It is clear that Turkey, which defeated Serbia in the last Group A match, will only be able to face this team again in the final.

The Turks have a very straightforward path to the semifinals – they will face Sweden in the round of 16 and either Poland or Bosnia and Herzegovina in the quarterfinals. Their potential semifinal opponent is Greece. The Greeks will have to defeat Israel in the round of 16 and either Lithuania or Latvia in the quarterfinals.

There is a little more intrigue on the other side of the knockout stage. Germany will face Portugal in the round of 16, with Italy or Slovenia awaiting them in the quarterfinals.

Serbia, which lost to Turkey and relinquished first place in its group, now has a more challenging road to the final. Finland awaits in the round of 16, with France or Georgia in the quarterfinals. Serbia is still considered the favorite to win the tournament, and its potential path to the final could be: Finland, France, Germany, and Turkey or Greece in the final.

The Germans have a good chance of winning the championship, but their opponents are a cause for concern. Serbia learned a valuable lesson from Turkey, while Germany cannot afford to make any more mistakes.

In the round of 16, they will face Portugal, and in the quarterfinals, they will likely face the strongest opponent in the championship, which is either Italy or Slovenia. Neither of these teams is considered a favorite, and the Germans may face their real opponent in the semifinals – France or Serbia. The big question is how the world champions will fare against opponents of their own caliber.

Before the start of the championship, Serbia was considered the clear favorite, with odds of 2.00 for victory. However, Bogdan Bogdanović’s injury, who would have been one of the most important players in the championship’s most crucial games, significantly altered the team’s chances. The defense line now consists of Aleksa Avramović and Stefan Jović, who are excellent defenders, and Vasilije Micić, whose teammates often overshadow him. The team lacks a guard who could take control of the game, which is its biggest weakness.

However, overall, even without Bogdanović, Serbia remains the most talented team. The team includes 10 Euroleague/NBA players, with only S. Jovič currently without a contract. A. Avramovič did not play in the second half against Turkey, but he avoided serious injury and will be able to play in the playoffs.

The Serbs lost to Turkey, but everything was decided in the final seconds. It must be acknowledged that Turkey played a fantastic game, and it is a big question whether they will be able to repeat this in the championship. The Turks scored 18 three-pointers out of 31 (58.1%).

Serbia’s most significant advantage is its front line. Both against France and Germany (if they have to play them), the Serbs will have an advantage in the front line. Not only Nikola Jokić, but also Nikola Milutinov, Filip Petrušev, Nikola Jović, and Tristan Vukcević. Height is a big weapon for the Serbian national team, and N. Jović often plays as a small forward, which gives him additional opportunities to attack defenders who are shorter than him.

Can we say that we have not yet seen Serbia’s best game? Absolutely. After losing B. Bogdanović, the team seemed to be playing with one foot in the next match against Latvia. It was difficult, but they managed to win. In the game against Turkey, we saw a different Serbian team, with enthusiasm and a desire to win. We wanted a little more from Nikola Jokić, but at the same time, it was clear that the team understands that this is the group stage and everything will start in the playoffs.

The Serbs lost to the Turks, making their path to gold more difficult, but on the other hand, this team can beat any team and has nothing to fear. Having toughened up against the French and Germans, the Serbs could potentially face an easier opponent in the final than on their way to the final.

We remain of the opinion that a potential semi-final between Serbia and Germany is the real final, and the winner of this match should triumph at EuroBasket 2025.

The history between these two teams over the past two years has been impressive. In 2023, Germany defeated Serbia in the FIBA World Basketball Championship final, while in 2024, Serbia defeated Germany in the bronze medal match at the Paris Olympics.

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