Olympic Basketball Qualifiers 2024 – Predictions

In the first week of July, we will find out the four national teams that will go to the 2024 Paris Olympics. Four separate Olympic basketball qualifiers will take place in four countries from 2 to 7 July, with six teams each. 

Only one team will qualify for the Olympics. Eight teams have already qualified: France, USA, Canada, South Sudan, Japan, Australia, Germany, Serbia and South Sudan.

There are favourites in each tournament, but there is no shortage of intrigue. The second tournament in Latvia may not have such a strong line-up, but the host Latvians will still have a tough time. 

Many eyes are on the qualifiers in Greece, where the hosts will be challenged by Slovenia, Croatia and the Dominican Republic. 

The format is the same for all the tournaments, with three teams competing in two groups, two of which qualify for the semi-finals. The first-placed team in a group plays against the second-placed team in the other group. 

The winners of the semi-finals meet in the final, and only the team that wins the final qualifies for the Olympic Games. In all tournaments, the semi-finals will take place on 6 July and the final on 7 July.

Key Highlights:

• Tournament in Spain Predictions: A Spain – Finland final is likely, with Spain securing the Olympic qualification.
• Tournament in Poland Predictions: A Latvia – Brazil final is expected, with Latvia predicted to secure the Olympic qualification.
• Tournament in Greece Predictions: A Slovenia – Greece final is expected, with Slovenia likely to win if Dončić plays.
• Tournament in Puerto Rico Predictions: Basketball bookmakers predict Lithuania to win the tournament, with their powerful frontcourt giving them the edge in the final.

The Spanish team was unsuccessful at the last FIBA Basketball World Cup and will have to qualify for the Olympics through an additional qualification. 

The hosts are considered the clear favourites for the Valencia tournament, with Finland and the Bahamas being the only two teams to be excluded. Angola and Lebanon are the weakest teams in the tournament. Poland may surprise, but it will be extremely difficult to beat the Spanish.

The winners of the semi-finals meet in the final, and only the team that wins the final qualifies for the Olympic Games. In all tournaments, the semi-finals will take place on 6 July and the final on 7 July.

• Lebanon
• Angola
• Spain

In Group A, the Spaniards will play two matches against Angola and Lebanon. The opponent is not to be underestimated, but it is hard to see how the Spanish do not make it to the semi-finals—all they need is at least one win against one of these teams. 

Since the other group has similar strengths, it does not matter which place in the group teams get; the most important thing is to reach the semi-finals. 

For Angola and Lebanon, meanwhile, this is a unique opportunity to get closer to the Olympic Games. One of these teams will play in the semi-finals, which means that two victories would put them two wins away from a big celebration in Paris.

• Finland
• Poland
• Bahamas

The Finns or the Poles are the favourites, but the Bahamas may surprise the most. They qualified for the finals for a reason – they beat Argentina in the extra qualifying final, with Facundo Campazzo, Nicolas Brussino, Carlos Delfino, Gabriel Deck and Patricio Garino. 

The Bahamas had three NBA players who led the Bahamas throughout the qualifiers – Deandre Ayton, Buddy Hield, and Eric Gordon, who scored 27 points in the finals. Travis Munnings also played well, adding 16 points. 

Following the success of the qualifiers, rumours have emerged that Warriors guard Klay Thompson is also looking to join the Bahamas national team and help in the Paris Olympic basketball qualifiers. 

There is a good chance that Thompson will not join, but D. Ayton, B. Hield, and E. Gordon should be able to play and continue their work. All three players are out of the NBA season, so they will have enough time to rest and prepare for the qualification for Olympics basketball. 

Finland impressed everyone at the 2022 FIBA Eurobasket with their beautiful, fast, and victorious play. The team’s strong leader, Lauri Markkanen, has shown himself to be a hard man to stop in FIBA basketball. 

However, the Finns were unlucky at the World Cup, and the team’s chances before the basketball Olympic Games qualification were immediately reduced. Although not a stand-out team, Poland beat Slovenia in the quarter-finals in 2022 and ended up finishing fourth.

The Spanish team is the standout in Group A, as they must finish first in the group and be in good shape for the semi-finals. Finland, Poland, and the Bahamas depend on all the available key players. Poland looks like the weakest of the trio, so we should see the Bahamas and Finland in the semi-finals.

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L. Markkanen will have enough time to recover from the NBA season, so if they finish first in the group and avoid the Spaniards, we should see Spain-Finland in the tournament’s final, which would be a repeat of the 2022 Eurobasket Quarter-finals. 

While the Spanish national basketball team may have yet to maintain its previous dominance and is undergoing a generational shift, the squad still boasts a formidable array of talent. If harnessed effectively, this talent could propel the team to tournament victory and continue to make waves in the Olympic Games. 

The good news for the Spanish is that Ricky Rubio has returned to basketball and is now playing for FC Barcelona. He should play in the Olympic basketball qualifying tournament 2024 and be one of the key players in the national team.

Latvians have been a pleasure to watch lately and have a unique opportunity to qualify for the Olympic Games. Last summer, Latvia defeated France, Spain, and Brazil at the FIBA World Cup.

In the quarter-finals, they lost by just a few points to the future champions, the Germans, and then went on to defeat the Lithuanian national team for fifth place. 

The Latvians put much pressure on their players when they decided to organise the Olympics basketball qualifications. Still, the draw was extremely successful, and Latvia did not get strong opponents. They already beat Brazil last year, and only Montenegro can surprise.

• Georgia
• Philippines
• Latvia

The Philippines is the weakest team in Group A, so Tornike Shengelia’s Georgia and the Latvians, who are playing at home, should be in the semi-finals.

Even if the Philippines come with NBA’s Jordan Clarkson, they have not played convincingly at the World Cup, and the situation will not change much in a year. 

Latvia is unsure if Kristaps Porzingis, currently out of the NBA playoffs due to injury, will play. The Boston Celtics have a good chance of reaching the NBA Finals, which could potentially end less than two weeks before the Olympic Qualifying Tournament. For more information read our article on NBA Playoffs betting.

However, even if Porzingis does not play, the Latvians have already shown at the 2023 FIBA World Cup that they will not be written off prematurely. With this performance, they have earned the status of favorite in Group A and the tournament.

• Brazil
• Cameroon
• Montenegro

Cameroon is the outsider in Group B and is not expected to do much. Even if they reach the semi-finals, they will have little chance of challenging the teams from Group A. The focus here will be on Brazil and Montenegro. 

Both teams have the talent to win the group and the whole qualification. Montenegro did not have a successful World Cup, but players like Nikola Vucevic, Nikola Ivanovic, Bojan Dubljevic, Kendrick Perry, Nemanja Radovic, and Marko Simonovic should help them in the Olympic basketball qualifying tournament. 

Brazil is going through a generational change and has been showing better results lately. We should see Bruno Caboclo, Yago Santos, Cristiano Felicio, Lucas Dias, Vitor Benite. 

Raul Neto, who missed the whole year due to injury, is unsure of playing, but 40-year-old Marcelinho Huertas, who was voted MVP of the FIBA Champions League season and will be 41 in the pre Olympic basketball qualifiers, is still playing.

Georgia and Latvia should qualify for the semi-finals in Group A, while Brazil and Montenegro should qualify for Group B. Latvia and Brazil are expected to meet in the final. The teams played each other in the 2023 FIBA World Cup, and the Latvians won 104:84. 

Brazil’s performance depends on the players they can bring, while Latvia should play with all their best players.

Artūrs Žagars, who has recovered from an injury and is finishing his season with Vilnius Wolves, should also help the national team. With the support of their home crowd, the team should win a ticket to the Olympic Games.

The Greek tournament is expected to be the most intriguing, as there will be no shortage of fierce battles in the group stage. There are already rumours that Luka Doncic and Giannis Antetokounmpo will meet in the final, but there is no need to rush. 

Luka Doncic is still in the NBA playoffs, and if he makes it to the NBA Finals, he will have little time before the Olympic pre qualification basketball. However, nothing should stop the Slovenian from qualifying unless he is injured. Slovenia is seriously preparing for the upcoming tournament, having naturalised Josh Nebo. 

Antetokounmpo did not play in the NBA playoffs due to an injury, and it is not clear how quickly he will recover. If he cannot play, Greece’s chances would be severely reduced even at home. 

Croatia should not be underestimated; it always has talented players but never wins anything. The Dominican Republic can come with Karl-Anthony Towns, and the national team showed its potential at the FIBA World Cup.

• Slovenia
• New Zealand
• Croatia

Slovenia is the favourite in Group A, and it will be essential to finish first here to avoid playing Greece in the semi-finals. It makes no difference when they face this team, as one team will qualify for the Olympics, but it is possible that the Greece could lose to the Croatia in the semi-finals. 

Croatia and New Zealand will play for second place in the group. New Zealand is the group’s outsiders, with no one expecting much from them.

At the same time, Croatia should come with names like Jaleen Smith, Mario Hezonja, Ivica Zubac, Dario Saric, and Bojan Bogdanovic. On a good day, they can also give a serious challenge to the Slovenians in one match.

• Egypt
• Greece
• Dominican Republic

Greece is the clear favourite in this group – even if Antetokounmpo doesn’t play, the Greeks still have to win their group. 

Last year, almost all the leading players refused to go to the FIBA World Cup. Still, we should see all the main players in the Olympic Games basketball qualifications at home – Kostas Sloukas, Konstantinos Mitoglou, Kostas Papanikolaou, Giannoulis Larentzakis, Ioannis Papapetrou, Nikos Rogkavopoulos, Tyler Dorsey and Thanasis Antetokounmpo. 

The Dominican Republic national team’s outcome depends on whether Karl-Anthony Towns can be brought in. With him, the team’s capacity is significantly higher, as we saw at the World Championship.

In addition to the NBA star, the squad also includes Victor Liz, Andres Feliz, Angel Delgado, and Jean Montero.

If all the teams arrive with the strongest possible lineup, we should see Slovenia – Greece at the tournament finals. The Slovenians already know what it means to qualify for the Olympics, as they did before the Tokyo Olympics when they beat Lithuania in the qualification final. 

The Greeks can reach the final without Antetokounmpo, but qualifying without the forward will be very difficult. If the Slovenians arrive with Klemen Prepelic, Jaka Blažič, Edo Muric, Vlatko Čančar, and Josh Nebo, the team led by L. Dončič should be able to go to the Olympics.

There is not much intrigue expected in Puerto Rico. The most exciting match of the tournament should be the final – until then, only the game between Puerto Rico and Italy can surprise. 

Each group has a clear outsider, and Lithuania is considered the favourite – Jonas Valanciunas and Domantas Sabonis have already finished their NBA seasons, so they will have plenty of time to recover and prepare for the FIBA qualifying tournament.

• Lithuania
• Mexico
• Côte d’Ivoire

Group A is one of the weakest qualifying tournaments and resembles only Group A of the Spanish tournament, where the hosts play Angola and Lebanon. 

Lithuania’s most important goal is to reach the semi-finals, as first or second place will still face Puerto Rico and Italy – some in the semi-finals and some in the final. Ivory Coast is the outsider in the group and may try to take on Mexico, but there is little chance. 

Kazys Maksvytis, head coach of the Lithuanian national basketball team, said that no player has refused to help the team, so barring any injuries in the remaining few months, we should see all the best players. 

This means that the squad’s core should consist of Jonas Valančiūnas, Domantas Sabonis, Marius Grigonis, Rokas Jokubaitis, Ignas Brazdeikis, Tadas Sedekerskis, Mindaugas Kuzminskas, and others.

• Italy
• Puerto Rico
• Bahrain

Bahrain is the clear outsider in this group, and Puerto Rico and Italy should easily qualify to the semi-finals. The question is which team will take first place and avoid Lithuania.

There is also a good chance that the team that finishes first in the group will play in the final, as both the hosts and the Italians have a more capable squad than the current Mexico. 

Puerto Rico can be very dangerous in this qualifying round, as it has a lot of talent on the defensive line. Markus Howard, who is on a tear in the Euroleague, will help the national team, and Jose Alvarado, a teammate of Valanciunas on the Pelicans, should play. And then there are players like John Holland, Isaiah Pineiro, and Tremont Waters. 

The Italians’ chances of making the playoffs are not bad, but a lot depends on Simone Fontecchio’s availability. 

Without Fontecchio, the Italian team will have a difficult time. If they can respond with a quick pace against Puerto Rico, without an actual center forward they will have trouble against Lithuania, which the team has been lacking for years.

The only team that can be highlighted in Group A is the Lithuanian national team, which looks like it will have to beat Italy and Puerto Rico. 

Mexico can do well, but they don’t stand much of a chance in the semi-finals against the teams in Group B. If Lithuania comes with its strongest possible line-up, as it seems likely to do, it can be considered a pretty clear favourite. 

Puerto Rico can surprise in one game, as they will play in front of their home crowd and have the kind of defense that can score many points when they feel the shot. The Italians may even be more comfortable against them because they have mobile big men, while Lithuania’s biggest weapon is its front line. 

Puerto Rico and Italy will not have anyone to play against Jonas Valanciunas and Domantas Sabonis. Lithuania has a good chance of returning to the Olympics here, and not qualifying could be considered a fiasco.