Expected Value In Sports Betting (EV)
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Written by
Dalius Mikalauskas -
22 Sep 20247 min. read
Understanding Expected Value in sports betting (EV) helps bettors make smart choices. EV tells us if the odds from the bookies can lead to winning money over time or if they might lead to losing money.
In this article, we talk about this concept and learn to apply it in betting.
Table of content
Expected Value Key Takeaways
EV (Expected Value) shows if a bet is worth it by comparing odds to your chances.
Positive EV (+EV) means long-term profit;
Negative EV (-EV) means likely losses.
EV Formula: (Win Probability × Payout) – (Loss Probability × Amount Wagered).
Smart bettors find +EV bets by avoiding emotional decisions and comparing odds.
Winning 55% of bets is key for long-term profit in professional betting.
What Is EV?
EV, or Expected Value, is a way to see if a bet is a good idea. It compares what you think will happen with the odds the bookies give.
If the odds are better than you think, that’s positive EV (+EV). This means you’ve found a good bet. Negative EV (-EV) is the opposite. It means the odds are not as good as the real chances, and you’ll probably lose money over time.
Negative Expected Value (-EV) Example
Imagine you’re flipping a coin, and each flip means you bet 100€ that it will land on tails. The odds are 1.9, which means if you win, you get 90€ extra. Since a coin has two sides, you have a 50/50 chance of it being heads or tails.
In this case, the EV is negative. That means we’re likely to lose money over time. On average, you’ll lose 5€ for every 100€ you bet.
| In flipping a coin, a negative Expected Value (EV) occurs when the payout for guessing correctly is less than the amount you risk, making it a losing proposition over time. |
So, if you flip the coin 100 times, you might get heads 50 times and tails 50 times. When it’s heads, you don’t win anything.
But when it’s tails, you win 90€ each time. If you win 50 times, you’ll have won 4500€. But remember, you also lost 50 times, which means you lost 5000€.
In the end, you’re down 500€. This shows that you can’t make money this way in the long run because the bet doesn’t work in your favor.
Positive Expected Value (+EV) Example
Imagine we have a unique coin. When you flip it, there’s a 60% chance it will land on heads and a 40% chance it will land on tails.
With our special coin, the EV is good news! It means you could make about 14€ for every 100€ you bet over time.
So, if you flip this coin 100 times, you’ll probably see heads 60 times. If you get 90€ each time heads comes up, you’ll earn 5400€.
But, you’ll also see tails about 40 times. If you lose 100€ each time tails comes up, you’ll lose 4000€. Add it all up, and you’re ahead by 1400€.
The key is to keep betting on heads. With a coin like this, you want to stick with it to keep that positive EV and your profit in the long run.
Knowing about EV is important for anyone who bets on sports. It’s not just about who you like or a guess. It’s about using math to make smart choices. If you keep choosing bets with +EV, you should make money in the long run, even though sports can be hard to predict.
FAQ About EV In Sports Betting
⭐ What is Expected Value in sports betting (EV)?
Expected Value (EV) is a way to figure out if a bet is a good idea. It compares the odds from the bookmaker with what you think the real chances are of winning.
⭐ How to calculate EV?
You calculate EV using this formula: EV = (Probability of Winning × Potential Payout) – (Probability of Losing × Amount Wagered)
⭐ What does positive (+EV) and negative (-EV) mean?
Positive EV (+EV) means a bet will likely result in a profit over time. Negative EV (-EV) indicates that the bet will probably lead to losses.
⭐ How does EV help with betting strategy?
Using EV helps you identify bets with favorable odds, manage risks better, and make more data-driven decisions rather than relying on emotions.
⭐ What are EV betting challenges?
Challenges include the time needed for research, potential losses in the short term, and bookmaker restrictions on successful bettors.
⭐ What is VIG in betting?
VIG, short for vigorish or “juice,” is the commission or fee bookmakers charge on each bet to ensure a profit regardless of the outcome. It is typically built into the odds, meaning bettors must win more than 50% of the time to break even.
Calculating EV
To bet wisely, you need to understand EV formula and probability.
EV Formula
There’s a simple way to calculate how much you might expect to win or lose on a bet.
- EV = (Probability of Winning × Potential Payout) – (Probability of Losing × Amount Wagered)
Applying Probability
Using probability is like making a smart guess on what will happen. For example, imagine a tennis player has a 45% chance to win a match.
Next, look at what the tennis betting sites offer. If they say the player has a 40% chance to win, that’s different from what you think. This could mean you might make money if you bet on them.
Here’s how to figure out if it’s a good bet:
Now, use a simple math formula. With your 45% chance and their 40% chance, you might have a good bet. That’s because you’re getting better odds than you think you should. This might mean you’ll win money over time if you keep making bets like this.
Quest for +EV
Many people think you need to win more bets than you lose to make money in sports betting. However, it’s not just about winning more often. It’s about smart betting.
The 55% Success Rate
Professional bettors usually win about 55% of their bets. This number is important because it’s more than enough to cover the extra fee that bookmakers charge, known as the “vigorish” or “juice.”
Winning more than 55% of the time is a sign of a very good bettor. It shows they are good at picking winners and at finding bets that are worth more than they cost. This is called betting with “positive expected value” or +EV.
Early Line Shopping
Getting an edge in betting often means being an early shopper for betting lines. Think of it like this: the early bettor is looking for the best value, just like an early bird catches the worm.
Right when sports betting sites put out their betting lines, smart bettors look at these first odds for chances to make money.
They know that these early odds might not be perfect because not many bets have been made yet. This can lead to changes in the odds.
By betting early, these pros can grab good odds that are likely to get worse closer to the game.
EV Betting Strategies
Some smart ways to bet can help you win more over time.
Avoiding Emotional Bets on Favorite Teams
Betting on sports is an adrenaline-filled adventure, but emotions can be your downfall if you’re not careful. When it comes to finding higher EV in betting:
Think before you bet. Use your head, not just your heart.
Look for solid proof, like stats, to support your bet.
It’s okay not to bet on every game, especially if it’s your favorite team playing.
Know When to Place Your Bets
To make the most of your bets, think about these tips:
The first odds can be better because not much money has changed them yet.
Stay updated with things that can change what people think and the odds. Things like players getting hurt, the weather, and changes in the team are important.
If you think more people will bet on one side, waiting might get you better odds on the other side later on.
Use Multiple Betting Sites
To make more money from sports betting, it’s smart to have accounts with many different betting sites. This way, you can always bet where the odds are best.
Even small differences in odds can add up over time. They can really grow your winnings.
Pay attention to the vig, which is the cut the site takes. A smaller vig means you can win more.
For more information, check our article about other effective sports betting strategies.
Vigorish (VIG) in EV Calculations
Vigorish, or VIG, is the fee a bookie charges for taking a sports bet. It’s like their cut of the action. If you want to make money betting on sports, you need to know how this fee affects your chances of winning.
How VIG Affects Betting
When bookies set odds for a game, they add in a fee for themselves. This fee means the chances they offer don’t add up to 100% but more. This makes it harder for people betting to win money.
This fee is a hidden cost. It’s like a hurdle that bettors have to jump over to make a profit. To bet smart, you have to think about this fee. If you don’t, you might lose your advantage because of this charge.
The fee can turn a fair bet into a losing one. To find the real value of a bet, you need to take away the fee from the odds the bookie gives you.
EV Betting Pros and Cons
Here are some pros and cons of EV betting:
Pros:
You might make more money by betting on things that are more likely to happen.
You use facts to help you make better betting decisions.
Knowing the expected value helps you bet within your comfort zone for taking risks.
Having an EV-based plan can help you bet more thoughtfully and less on impulse.
Cons:
Finding good bets can take a lot of research and time.
You might still lose bets in the short term, which can be frustrating.
There may not be as many good bets to make, especially in less common sports.
You need to learn about betting and odds, which can be tricky at first.
Bookmakers might limit how much you can bet or not let you bet at all if you win too often.
Final Thought on Positive EV Betting
If you want to bet smarter in sports, you need to know about Expected Value or positive EV betting. To use EV, you look at the odds and decide if they’re in your favor.
Positive EV sport betting means you’re finding bets that should pay off in the long run. But this isn’t easy. You have to deal with ups and downs and sometimes betting companies might limit your bets.
Even with these issues, learning about EV is a smart move. It helps you spot the best bets and win more.
Sports Betting Expert
