“Gold” money management systems in betting
From the very first minute, as soon as the first bet was launched, various betting systems began to be created at once. Logically, people are always looking for “systems.” For whom it is difficult to analyze each bet why bother if one can find a mathematical system that guarantees stable profits.
The same principle exists in other areas, not only in betting, but also in poker, casinos, diet, sports, people are looking for some kind of universal system everywhere that always guarantees them profit. In other words, a “golden rule” or “golden ratio” is searched.
What is it that attract people so much? The only thing that needs to be done is instant effort to learn the system, understand it, and then you can simply enjoy the results generated by that system without putting any extra effort into it. People don’t want to constantly learn and constantly adapt to changing circumstances, and therefore they are looking for something constant, immutable.
Another hook, why they are so popular, is that they promise a very small variation of return. E. g. Every beginner wants not only to make money, but he wants to make as much money as possible by investing as little as possible and with the lowest possible risk. At first glance, the desire sounds logical, but if you look deeper, it would sound somewhat like the desire to know about the world as much as possible, but travel as little as possible.
It’s important to understand, we do not tell you that betting bankroll management is not important, that’s a very important topic. However, we want to emphasize that good capital management is worthless, without understanding what +EV bets are and understanding how money is earned in betting.
Below we present some of the most popular pseudo-bankroll management systems. Our goal is not to discourage you from using them. Everything is in your hands and will always be, if you believe in you and trust your skills. There are certainly many bettors who use one or another pseudo-betting scheme and some of them really make money. However, our goal is to introduce you not only to these systems, but also to the dangers, as well as introduce you with the good and recommended capital management systems.
We use and we recommend you use proportional betting schemes, one of them is betting based on the Kelly criteria and its modified options.
Why people screw up?
A frequent web page wants you to “propose” something about they product or they idea. There is no exception to betting systems. The basic idea of what you are trying to do about the various pseudo-betting strategies pages is the idea that everything is very simple, let’s just double our bets and you’ll always be the winner.
For most beginners, it’s like a music for their ears, they come to betting business with burning passion, and here’s a web page that tells you how to sit at home without thinking about sports without thinking anything about betting math, probability, variation, no psychological preparation, just bet and earn few hundreds of euros a day, and sometimes even an hour. It is interesting that experience is not required for this, it seems that any housewife could do that.
The paradox is that if you see a job advertisement: “Looking for a bank manager, education is unnecessary, understanding of mathematics is unnecessary, understanding of finance and economics is not required, foreign language is not required, experience is not necessary, or even the advantage, that it is not, because work is very easy. You will be able to lead the bank directly from home, without leaving the dishes. Salary is 200 euros per hour.”
Isn’t this advert suspicious to you? I think that for all normal people, such an ad would cause more distrust than trust. But earning a few hundreds of euros in betting per few hours and not knowing anything is normal.
Let’s move on to an even more interesting thing, so what the “mysterious” bets scheme or method most often “nobody knows”, but you only succeeded in finding it somehow or it was revealed just to you alone.
Most often, the scheme is super-primitive, you only need to double, triple your bet. It’s strange why there are never systems where should you pull the root? Or calculate integral equations? Usually, the system is designed so primitive that it’s easy for every reader to read it. Here’s an example of how a coin throws up, which shows a very small chance that a single symbol will drop 10 times in a row. However, the fact that the probability itself is small does not yet prove the truth of the system.
Let’s Check it:
Let’s throws up a coin, a tale can tail – T and the head – H. We will thow the coin 10 times, which versions probability is higher?
A. That will open this sequence: T – T – T – T – T – T – T – T – T – T
B. That will open this sequence: T – T – H – H – H – T – H – T – H – T
The probabilities are FULLY EQUIVALENT. The probability of each throw is always 50% / 50%. So if we want to write in mathematical language, they would look like this:
A: That will open this sequence: 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 x = 1/1024 = 0.0976%
B: That will open this sequence: 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 x = 1/1024 = 0.0976%
Have a discussion started? Disagree with the answers? Let’s discuss at the comments below.
So what’s going on? People are often fooled by mathematical illusions that are completely out of line with truth. My examples are very primitive, but they are very commonly used and work great to try to incorporate a mass. Check again.
Let’s Check it:
The situation, you and your friend throw a coin to avoid fraud, the coin you throw is your own. You’ve already threw the coin 9 times, now throwing 10 times. Question: In which case, the probability of a drop in the number is higher?
A: T – T – T – T – T – T – T – T – T – ?
[You have already thrown 9 times the number of probabilities during the 10 attempts to drop the number again?]
B: H – H – H – H – H – H – H – H – H – ?
[You have already thrown the coat 9 times, what is the probability of 10 attempts to drop the number?]
Well, this time I believe it was really easy, and everyone answered right. The answer is the same as in the first case, the probabilities are completely identical in both cases.
A: T – T – T – T – T – T – T – T – T – 1/2 (50%) That the tail falls
B: H – H – H – H – H – H – H – H – H – 1/2 (50%) That the head falls
So, the new players are usually easier to fool, they are told about how much money they can make, it creates an illusion that every minute they do not bet they loose money. There is also an illusion that the chances of burning are very low. As already mentioned in the above example with a coin throw. Again, they create a mathematical illusion, they say the probability that you will make money 10 times on the coin and drop the tail, after all, you can only see one out of 1024. But here again it is an illusion because no betting company gives you such bet in its offers. You always bet on one isolated event. E.g. You can not guess that there will be at least 1 throw of 10 shots, you rebuild each time and re-think as a separate event.
Well, if there are enough preaches, go ahead and get acquainted with the basic pseudo-money management systems.
“Gold” money management systems
There are three commonly used money management systems: Martingale (Dogons), a number line, and a Fibonacci sequence. Sometimes these systems are called differently, but the principle remains the same.
Martingale is perhaps the most well known money management system. It was originally developed in a casino. The essence of this system is that it does not matter what we choose, no matter what is our preparation for betting, we simply make bets according to a certain methodology. The use of martingale does not require any skills, except for multiplication by two. So you can be a very poor betting player and still win. However, remember that using this method can quickly go up, but also can quickly loose all bankroll.
The principles of this system:
If you lose, double your bet, and if you win, you start over with the original bets. This means you will eventually be profitable. Example: you found a good bet at bet365 with a 2.0 odds to make the home a win. You bet $100 and lose because the race ended with the draw. Next time, you play $200 in a match with a odds of 2.0. If you lose again, you will have to bet $400 for the next time with a multiplier = 2.0. If you win this time, your overall bet will be $100 + 200 + 400 = $700 and you will win $100 for your efforts. $100 you would win and with the first bet.
A wonderful system if there is no lack of funds. Or if bookmakers have not placed limits on the bets and of course if you can stay calm when the loosing period comes. Keep in mind if you lose 5 times in a row, with a multiplier of = 2.0, you will have to build 32 times the amount from the original bet. And losing 5 times in a row with such a factor is not that unlikely to happen. And even if you lost 5 times, the odds of winning 6 times are not very high. Most people think they have to win because they have had multiple loses. The chances of winning (or losing) are exactly the same as in the initial bet.
Martingale is a risky system, it should only be used by players who can afford to lose money. In short, to allocate some amount that we should not miss if our system fails to prove. You should avoid playing with such a system with your entire bankroll.
Of course, each system has many modifications. Most often, these are minor changes that “should make the system work.” For example: put some protectors in order not to double the bets, but to look for higher odds.
For example: we bet $100 for the first time with a odds of 1.85, we lost, so we make the second bet with a odds of 2.25, so we no longer need to double the bet and build $200, in this case it is enough to bet only 80 to save our lost money. So, such modifications allow us to “play” for more “martingale” and re-create the illusion that it works (because in a short period of time it really works). So, do not bet if you found some modified martingale on the internet that really works, it’s 100% false and they desire to get you involved in some kind of affair.
Before that, we looked at the betting scheme when we did not care about the event, i.e. We do not know sports, but we choose some matches and just doubles bets, etc. However, what happens if we use martingale for value bets, i.e. We take really good bets where we have the advantage over the bookmaker and we use this method. If we lose, then we take the second bet with the value and double the bet. After all, will we save our money and not lose value? Technically sounds very nice, but the reality is that we often can not imagine how much long failures might take. It might be that our whole capital may not be enough to survive a series of failures. There is a simulation of 500 bets as one of the betting systems using martingale, we recommend that you familiarize yourself with this simulation.
The German name for this method is “Die Abstreichmetode”. This is also a well-known casino system that has a lot to do with Martingale. Only a line of numbers is not so risky. Although Martingale can quickly return the built-in amount and still make a profit, and the line of numbers does not cover so much of the losses so fast, but here the bets do not grow as strong as using Martingale.
The numbers line gives you more flexibility as you can adjust your bets yourself in a more appropriate way. The disadvantage of this system is that it requires more effort, since it is not only necessary to write a line of numbers on paper, but also to add defeats and to delete the numbers when wins. (Wow, how much effort?!?)
The principles of this system:
First, we need to decide how much we want to win. Let’s take $1000. Then you need to find out in how much time you want to achieve your goal. When winning, you must delete the first and last number in the line, and when you lose, you must add the number at the end of the row. You need to choose the average chance of winning. If you want to play in competition with odds of 2.0, determine your chance to win 40%. It’s better not to overestimate than to overestimate your capabilities. If you overestimate yourself, you will have to compensate by raising your bets. And rising bets may become unpleasant when the loosing period starts.
If we imagine $1000 divided into 20 wins of $50, we can calculate how many times we will need to bet in order to reach the goal by giving a 40% chance with a odds of = 2.0 (the probability of 50% means that you bet the same as bookmakers). In case of winning, you will have to remove two numbers in the line (first and last). If you miss you will have to fill in the numbers at the end. The line will look like this:
50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50
How to set the first bet amount:
As written above, the first and last numbers will be deleted if you win. 50 + 50 = 100. Willing to win $100 you must make bets that will bring a profit of $100. If odds are 2.0, you will have to bet $100. If the odds are 1.50, you will have to bet $200. If the odds are 1.75, your bet will be $133.33. The formula is as follows:
The amount you want to win / odds – 1
The following bets can be calculated in the same way. If the first bet was $125 with a odds of 1.80, and this bet is lost, you must add 125 at the end of the list. The next bet will look like this:
First number in line + last number / odds – 1
50+125/1.80 – 1
If you win, you will need to delete the first and last numbers and start at the beginning: 50 + 50 / (odds -1).
Although this system does not have such a great progression as Martingale, it is also a rather dangerous method. If the period of losing comes, you can easily lose all your bankroll. Also, the very first calculations are the most important ones. If you still get interested and would like to try these techniques, we recommend you to run a false test before you start using this method. This is how you master the system and see how important it is to not overestimate your ability to predict the outcome of the match.
Fibonacci number sequence
One of the most famous mathematicians was Leonardo Pisano Bigollo or otherwise known as Fibonacci. This is a mathematician of Italian origin, who is known for promoting the system of Arabic numerals in Western Europe, being one of the most prominent and prudent middle aged mathematicians.
He noticed certain tendencies in nature, especially with rabbits, their mating and multiplication under ideal conditions. Later, the Fibonacci sequence was found in many natural environments, from tree leaves to flower rings.
In short, the essence of the entire sequence is that the new number is the sum of the previous two numbers.
Fibonacci sequence -> 184.108.40.206.220.127.116.11.18.104.22.168. …
So, one of the methods is to follow the same sequence in the bets, e.g. we are building $ 100.
This is the first time we bet $100, if we lose, we’ll bet $100 again for the second time, if we lose $100 for the third time, then $300, $500, $800, etc.
The argument of users is of sequence of Fibonacci numbers is regarded as a “golden” natural rule, since it can be found practically everywhere in nature, and even in human works and in the person itself. So, logic is simple, because it works everywhere in nature, should work both in casinos and in betting.
However, in fact, there is no logic in it, it’s just another scheme that is very similar to the above-mentioned sequences of martingale (dogons) and numbers scheme. Everything is based on the assumption that our money is unlimited, so we can easily increase our bets until a favorable event falls, but in our lives, our capital is often very limited, so is betting and casinos are limiting our bets.
If something tells you an argument that there are casinos that do not limit your bets, then there’s the system working there. Know that this is completely false, because when we talk about unlimited money or unlimited bets for these methods, we are talking about numbers that are approaching infinity, not millions or even billions, as they may not even be enough, to prove the correctness of these systems.
However, if we still have not been able to discourage you, here is a list of bookmakers that we recommend as the best and most reliable betting companies.