Australian Open Predictions 2024

The year 2024 has just started with the return of big tennis. On 14 January, the first Grand Slam matches will begin. Australian Open qualifying has already started, so it is possible to start watching the lower-level players who, after winning qualifying, will be looking to make some surprises in the first rounds of the Australian Open.

Tennis enthusiasts eagerly await the action, and discussions on Australian Open predictions are gaining momentum as fans speculate on who might emerge victorious in this highly anticipated tournament.

For the first time this year, the Grand Slam will start on Sunday and be one day longer. The schedule will not be as tight, so the tennis players will have more time. Compared to last year, the prize pool has increased by 13.07%. The prize money is now 86 million Australian dollars.

The tournament will see some of the best tennis players in the whole world, including defending champion Novak Djokovic, the young Spaniard Carlos Alcaraz, and others such as Daniil Medvedev, Jannik Sinner, Andrey Rublev, Stefanos Tsitsipas and Alexander Zverev.

Australian Open

Australian Open

We were supposed to see Rafael Nadal returning from injury at the Australian Open, but the Spaniard pulled a muscle and will be out of the tournament. As he says, he is still getting ready for a tournament of this level, although he wanted to play very much.

In this Australian Open 2024 betting guide, we've highlighted the five tennis players with the best odds of winning, according to the best online bookmakers.

Key Highlights:

  • Notably, the tournament schedule has expanded, starting on Sundays and lasting one day longer, offering players more time. The prize pool has increased by 13.07% to reach 86 million Australian dollars compared to the previous year.
  • Key players, including Novak Djokovic, Carlos Alcaraz, Daniil Medvedev, Jannik Sinner, Stefanos Tsitsipas, and Alexander Zverev, are set to compete, but Rafael Nadal will be absent due to an injury.
  • A comprehensive Australian Open 2024 betting guide highlights the top five players with the best odds of winning, led by Novak Djokovic, with a 48.8% probability and 2.05 odds.
  • Young Spanish talent Carlos Alcaraz follows with a 24.4% chance of winning and 4.10 odds, boasting an impressive record on hard courts.
  • Italian Jannik Sinner holds a 14.3% probability with 7.00 odds, while experienced player Daniil Medvedev has a 10.5% chance and 9.50 odds, having reached the finals twice before.
  • Alexander Zverev, with a 4.3% probability and 23.00 odds, sees increased chances following Rafael Nadal's injury withdrawal.
  • Three main tennis betting tips for the Australian Open emphasize the significance of the hard court surface, the absence of fatigue concerns at the beginning of the season, and the historical success of top-ranked players, particularly in the men's event.
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Table of content

Novak Djokovic Predictions – 48.8% Probability of Winning, 2.05 Odds

When almost all the top tennis players are in a tournament, and one is given a nearly 50% chance of winning, it may seem impossible, but then we look at history, and such figures seem logical. He made his first Australian Open debut in 2005 and first championship in 2008.

If we count from this year, the Serb has won 10 of his last 15 tournaments, which is 66%. The Serb has won the last four Australian Open Grand Slam tournaments he has played.

The 36-year-old dominated last year, winning several top-level tournaments. It seems that only Spaniard C. Alcaraz can challenge him at the upcoming Australian Open. Remember that Australia will be a 3-set match, reducing the chances of the outsider's surprises.

If Djokovic and Alcaraz meet in the finals, the odds for the Serb should be less than 2.05, so this long-term bet has a lot of value. The only worrying thing is that he suffered a slight injury in the tournament at the beginning of January.

FAQ
🎾 What is Australian Open?

The Australian Open is one of four Grand Slam tennis tournaments held annually in Melbourne, attracting top players worldwide.

🎾 When is Australian Open 2024?

Australian Open 2024 will occur from the 14th to the 28th of January.

🎾 How often is Australian Open?

The Australian Open is an annual event that takes place once a year.

🎾 Who is favored to win Australian Open 2024?

Novak Djokovic is favored to win the 2024 Australian Open with odds of 2.05.

🎾 What is an Australian Open Ground Pass?

The Australian Open Ground Pass offers tennis fans access to the outdoor courts and general areas during the tournament, providing an affordable option to enjoy matches on non-ticketed courts and soak in the event's overall atmosphere. It's a great way for spectators to experience the excitement and entertainment of the Australian Open without the need for specific stadium tickets.

Carlos Alcaraz Predictions – 24.4% Probability of Winning, 4.10 Odds

Carlos Alcaraz, a 20-year-old Spaniard, is given a 24.4% chance of winning, and for good reason. At 20, he has already won every major hardcourt tournament except the Australian Open. In 2022, he won the Miami and US Open; in 2023, he added Indian Wells.

In the last two years of outdoor hardcourt play, the Spaniard has won 45 times and suffered nine defeats. As a result, there is no doubt that he will be motivated at the Australian Open.

Speaking of motivation, the Spaniard did not play in the Australian Open last year because he suffered an injury just before it. It is worth mentioning that he should feel the freshest in the upcoming tournament compared to the other leading contenders.

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After the US Open, where he lost in the semi-finals, he finished 2023 having played only 12 matches. Apart from Djokovic, all the players in the top 5 have played more matches than Alcaraz.

If we compare Alcaraz with the other leading competitors, the Spaniard is the main and the biggest challenge to the Serbian Djokovic. The Serb has dominated the Australian Open, winning the last 28 matches.

Still, the Spaniard was absent last year, and their meeting in the 2023 Wimbledon final showed that Alcaraz is already capable of defeating the Serb. The Spaniard won 3:2 but lost the next two matches.

There was no shortage of intrigue at the ATP 1000 Cincinnati, where Djokovic won only after a hard-fought battle 5-7, 7-6(7), 7-6(4).

The odds of 4.10 for the Spaniard to become champion and the bet that Alcaraz will play in the final are worth a look.

Jannik Sinner Predictions – 14.3% Probability of Winning, 7.00 Odds

The 22-year-old Italian has a 14.3% probability of winning the upcoming Australian Open, which may seem relatively low. Still, given the history of this tournament, it will be challenging to topple Serbian Djokovic.

One can immediately look at the matches between the two – the Serb has won four of the six games and four of the last five. The Italian won the Davis Cup Finals semi-final at the end of 2023. Still, before that, he lost all the key matches – the ATP Finals, the Wimbledon semi-finals, and the Wimbledon quarter-finals a year earlier.

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The Italian is currently ranked fourth in the ATP rankings and has played once in the semi-finals of a Grand Slam – at Wimbledon 2023.

His best performance at the Australian Open was a quarter-final in 2022. Notably, the Italian finished 2023 solid, losing only to Djokovic in the ATP Finals and winning all three matches at the Davis Cup Finals.

Daniil Medvedev Predictions – 10.5% Probability of Winning, 9.50 Odds

The odds are high, considering that Daniil Medvedev played in the finals of the Australian Open two times, in 2021 and 2022, and lost both times. He is an experienced 27-year-old tennis player who won one Grand Slam tournament – the US Open in 2021.

Medvedev is currently ranked 3rd in the ATP rankings, and his last tournament was the ATP Finals in mid-November, where he lost 1-2 to Italy's Jannik Sinner in the semi-finals.

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To win the Australian Open, he will have to beat one of the leaders, either Djokovic or Alcaraz, in the final or on the way to it. Last year, the Spaniard won 3 out of 4 meetings. Alcaraz won the ATP 1000 Indian Wells final, the Wimbledon semi-finals, and the ATP Finals group stage.

Medvedev celebrated his victory in the semi-finals of the US Open. The tennis players have played against each other five times in their careers, and the Spaniard has won thrice.

If we look at the meetings between Djokovic and Medvedev, the Serbian has won 10 out of 15 times. Djokovic has won five of the last six matches. Combining this statistic with C. Alcaraz, a 10.5% probability of winning is quite logical.

Alexander Zverev Predictions – 4.3% Probability of Winning, 23.00 Odds

The 26-year-old German's chances are similar to those of 20-year-old Danish Holger Rune. Their chances of winning have increased significantly since the injury withdrawal of Spain's Rafael Nadal, ranked fifth in the given odds.

The German will arrive at the Australian Open after successfully warming up his legs at the United Cup, which ended on 7 January. There, he represented Germany and led his country to the title. In the final, he beat Poland's Hubert Hurkacz 2-1, and in the doubles, he and Laura Siegemund defeated Hubert Hurkacz and Iga Swiatek.

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The sixth-ranked German has a 23.00 odds for good reason. First of all, the history of the Australian Open shows that it takes a lot of work for non-favorites to win this tournament. Secondly, last season at the Grand Slam, Zverev made one semi-final appearance, but at the same Australian Open, he was defeated in the second round.

3 Main Australian Open Betting Tips

Let's look at the three main betting tips for the Australian Open.

The Surface

The Australian Open is played on a hard court surface, and it is one of two grand slam events to be played on this kind of surface, with the US Open being the other.

With two grand slams played on this kind of surface, and many other events, you will have a lot of form to look at on the surface. This should help you work out which players do well on the surface and who struggles.

The hard court surface is medium to fast in its speed, which is more like a grass court than a clay court, which is often slow. Players can put a lot of spin on the ball because of the high bounce but also look out for big servers, who can have an advantage with the court speed adding to their service power.

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There is no such thing as a hard court specialist so you don’t need to look out for those players. However, the fast game will favour some more than others.

If you are going to use a strategy to narrow down players, perhaps the best thing to do is to avoid those who thrive on the slow clay courts as this is the complete opposite.

Fitness and Fatigue

When you are normally looking at a tennis tournament you should always look out for which players have played a lot recently and could be fatigued, while also looking out for players who have not played and may have fitness issues.

This tournament is slightly different to most events, and this isn’t something you should be looking for.

Being at the start of the season, every single player will be targeting this event. Everyone will want to be 100% for it, and the only ones who won’t be at their best are those that are carrying serious injuries from the season before, but you will know about those.

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There will also be no fatigue for you to consider, something else that should make finding the winner a little easier. When we get to the middle of the summer you have to watch out for fatigued players who are playing too much, especially those who are older but in this tournament you don’t.

Whether it is beginning fit enough, or not being fatigued, you won’t have any problems here. The players are all professionals and with this event being right at the start of the season they will all have their own routine that they trust to get them 100% spot on for this two-week event.

Trust the Favorites

When you look back at the previous winners of this event, especially the men’s event, you will notice that the big names are always involved. Roger Federer, Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal and Stan Wawrinka have won every single year between them since 2006 up until last season.

Those four are all top players, and the two players who like to play with spin and finesse, Federer and Djokovic, have won more titles than anyone else in recent years.

This is because there are fewer variables in a tournament like this. Almost everyone can adapt their game to this surface, and as we have already mentioned above, there are no fitness and fatigue issues for you to consider when making those picks.

Those things should all lead to fewer shocks in the tournament and more games going the way of the favorite.

While it is a simple strategy to talk about, it has been proven time and time again that sticking with the favorites in this tournament is the best way to go. The favorites are simply the best-ranked players, and with few variables to stop them, this has always been a good tournament for them to compete in.

The women’s game is always more open than the men’s, but the same principle applies to them. We haven’t seen a group of women dominate the game as we have in the men’s event, but seven of the last ten female champions have been ranked in the top ten when they won the tournament.

Other Australian Open Tennis Tips

If you want to make reliable 2024 Aussie Open predictions , you need to have some AUS Open betting tips in mind. Some of the Australian Open tips that pro bettors use include the following:

  • Take into consideration the ATP race
  • Observe the history of the Australian Open tournament
  • Look at the head-to-head history of the players in the match
  • Analyse the form of the players in any Australian Open game before making the final decision
Dalius Mikalauskas

Sports Betting Expert

Dalius became interested in sports betting at the age of 16, although he could not place bets at that time (bets accepted from the age of 18). However, it was not forbidden to sell betting picks, which is what the author did actively on sports betting forums. Today, he has more than 18 years of experience in sports betting. In school, the auth ..
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