A Guide to Backing Horse Racing Outsiders
There is no better feeling than backing a winner on the horses, and that feeling is even greater if you have managed to pick out a big priced outsider that has won when no one else managed to spot it. There are many of these horses running each day, and some of them win, but what do you need to look for when you are trying to find value, and pick out a big priced runner to go close? There are many factors to look for, and here are just some of them that will hopefully help you narrow the field down next time you place a horse racing bet.
Look at Overall Form, Not Recent Form
When bookmakers price races up, they always look at recent form and look at horses who have shown something in their most recent races. If a horse has won a race recently, that horse is likely to be among the favorites to win the upcoming race, as are those that have run well, and been running well for the past few runs. However, when you are looking for an outsider that is in with a chance of winning, you need to look at the overall form picture, and not just what has happened recently.
Horses that are big prices will have a reason for them being a big price, and often that can be because they have been a little disappointing recently. However, there is a chance they may still be able to win the race and to find out if they have or not you need to look further back. Look out for horses that have the form in the book to win the race, but who haven’t shown that recently. For example, a horse that has won a similar race six months ago, instead of a horse that won a similar race last time out. These two horses will be priced up very differently in the market, despite having the same form in the book, the difference is that it is fresh in the memory for one of the horses, and you have to dig out the form book for the other.
This is the sort of thing you will need to do if you want to start backing outsiders with success, you need to find horses who may be on their way to bouncing back, and who have the form to do so.
Look For a Change in Circumstances
This covers many different things but is a great way to find value in horse racing. What you need to do here is find a horse that has been disappointing recently, but has something different which may change its fortunes in the upcoming race. These horses will be priced up at big odds because they have disappointed, what you are doing is finding a reason to back them and a reason why they may provide you with value.
This covers a lot of different scenarios, but here are just a few.
Look for horses who have struggled with the bad ground recently, but are now going back to their favoured type of ground. This can be a horse who has been running in the winter and is now running during the spring when the ground is better. They may have shown nothing on the bad winter ground, but are at home in the spring on better ground. They will be priced upon their recent runs, which will be poor because of the ground, giving them a big price.
Change of Track
There are many different racecourses in the UK, and each one has its own uniqueness, providing a tough challenge for the horses. Sometimes a horse will not like a particular track due to a variety of things, and they are at home on a different track. Look out for horses who have struggled to perform because of the type of track, and then switch to something that will suit them more. For example, if a horse has run poorly on a tight track with sharp turns, running on a galloping track that is flat may suit them and be enough to help them win.
You also need to pay attention to the trainers of the horses you are backing. Trainers will have moments where their horses are running well, and others when they are struggling. This will affect the horse you back, and if a trainer has recently been out of form, that could explain why the horse has run poorly. This can be from a virus in the yard or even a change of routine.
When that trainer returns to form, their horses will often win at big prices. This is because they have been struggling in recent weeks, showing nothing and look out of form. However, now the horse has no problems to contend with in the stable, they can give their true running, and that could mean winning at a big price for punters who spotted them.
Change of Trainers
This can often work wonders for some horses, and give them a new lease of life. Sometimes a horse will change the yard it is based in, either because it has been sold, or because the owner wants to try something new. This is something that is certainly worth watching out for, regardless of the trainers involved.
Horses moving from a big yard to a smaller, lesser known trainer may benefit from the additional care and attention they are given, being in a smaller yard. This can bring out improvement and get the horse winning races. However, the same can happen the other way, when moving to a big yard from a smaller one, the facilities will be better, and the horse will be in better hands, meaning its race preparation is likely to be better here. This can have a huge impact on a racehorse, and when a horse moves they are often worth keeping an eye on for signs of improvement.